Foreword: After all, it has become the memory of a generation, after all, it still violates the bottom line of the country and the people, after all, it is still reduced to a joke, the end of an era, often indicates the beginning of another era, with the continuous emergence of brilliant real estate companies with frequent thunderstorms, are waiting to see the trend at the national level, the coming will come sooner or later, and may be absent at will, but the one who should come will not be absent. (Note: This article represents only personal opinions).
Continuing from the above, this article continues to reveal the development balance point and market share and policy trend of the five real estate companies mentioned above, first assuming that the total annual real estate market share in China will remain at 10 trillion yuan in the future (for the following reasons: first, the current development of China's cities is unbalanced, and there is still some room for urban development; the second is the construction of "metropolitan area" and "economic circle" guided by national policies, pointing out the new direction of urban expansion and group development; Third, China's current overall land use country is planning a flag, urban development policies have been introduced, and rural land use has begun to emerge).
1. Central-funded state-owned real estate enterprises account for 80% and 2% of the entire market share
Typical state-funded real estate enterprises: China Rongtong Real Estate Group, China Jinmao, COFCO Real Estate + Joy City, Minmetals Real Estate + China Metallurgical Real Estate, China State Construction + China Overseas Real Estate, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone, China Resources Land, Hong Kong China Travel Service, China Green Development Investment, China Railway Group, China Railway, China Railway Construction, China Communications Group, China Agricultural Development Real Estate, Poly Development, China Power Construction + Nanguo Real Estate, Overseas Chinese Town, China Nanguang, etc. For the list of central enterprises, please see: List of central enterprises **State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC.).gov.cn)。Central-funded real estate enterprises are estimated to account for 30% of the entire market share.
Typical state-owned real estate enterprises: with the recent reform of state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises are required to focus on the development of the main business, provincial and municipal investment platform companies in various provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government, there will be 2-5 platform companies engaged in real estate development business, typical can be found on Tianyancha xx provincial people's ** State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission - foreign investment, the business of a platform company includes real estate development and operation related business, and a part of the municipalities directly under the central government may be the people of xx city ** to perform the duties of investors; Generally speaking, there will be 2-3 prefecture-level cities and 1-2 county-level cities and county-level cities after the reform. State-owned real estate enterprises are estimated to account for 50% of the entire market share, 3%.
2. Private real estate enterprises account for 15% and 2% of the entire market share
With the end of an era, the beginning of another new era, private real estate enterprises have been precarious, but will not die, after all, once brilliant, there will always be a few through the trough, and eventually return to normal, the pattern will basically be the same as the central state-owned assets, there are national private real estate enterprises, there will also be local private real estate enterprises, the difference is that private real estate enterprises and some characteristic real estate enterprises as a supplement, and the entry and exit barriers are low, and the update iteration is relatively fast.
3. Foreign-funded real estate enterprises account for 5% and 1% of the entire market share
Foreign capital, which includes Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and foreign capital for the time being, why foreign capital has a place, because the owners of foreign capital have experienced the future of China's development and is about to develop, they have more or less experienced it in advance, so they grasp the direction relatively independent and accurate, and basically not affected by the domestic market, limited by policy restrictions, but there will be a certain policy bias, **5% of the market share is considering the recent international form is relatively tight, it is estimated that it will last until about 2028, In the medium term, the proportion of foreign-funded real estate enterprises will increase, and in the long run, it will definitely increase, because no one can stop the pace of China's internationalization and globalization.
Conclusion: The latest real estate policy trend research and judgment and the corresponding policy direction are detailed in the follow-up.