Abstract: In 2024, the "oil and electricity war" will enter a critical year, and the market competition will become more and more fierce, and how the price reduction space of the core component battery will become the focus of the industry.
In 2023, the battery new energy industry chain will be unprecedentedly volatile, and most of the performance will not be optimistic. However, many industry insiders predict that 2023 will be the best year for the battery new energy industry in the next 10 years.
At the beginning of 2024, the problems of price reduction and destocking in the battery new energy industry have not been alleviated, and the first year of the war will kick off.
In terms of car companies, BYD, Changan Qiyuan, Nezha Automobile, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Geely Automobile, Beijing Hyundai, Buick Automobile and other "electric" and "oil" cars are fighting a first-class war in order to occupy more market share.
The battery network noticed that the power battery, as the core of electric vehicles, accounts for about 40% of the cost of the whole vehicle. Behind the war of car companies, the cost of power batteries is inseparable from the rapid decline.
As early as 2013, Guotai Junan believed in a research report that lithium battery ** will drop by half in the next 5 to 10 years. In terms of market performance, from scarcity to surplus, from soaring to plummeting, it has only been nearly two years, and the competition in the battery industry has become more and more fierce.
According to the data disclosed by Sullivan, since 2017, China's power lithium battery has shown a downward trend as a whole, and the average power lithium battery cell has increased from 0 in 201775 Wh dropped to 0 in 202152 yuan Wh, in 2022, due to the upstream materials **large**, the average power lithium battery cells **large** to 079 yuan wh. In 2023, the average power lithium battery material *** power lithium battery cell is estimated to be 055 yuan or so.
The reason for the decline of power battery is mainly due to the sharp decline in raw materials, the cost reduction brought about by the improvement of power battery technology, and the market competition brought about by the overcapacity of power battery.
Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, publicly stated in July 2022 that "the cost of power batteries accounts for % of the total cost of automobiles, and it is still increasing." "In that year, the raw material lithium carbonate ** per ton ** to a historical high of nearly 600,000 yuan.
In 2023, the average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate will be 2620,000 tons, nearly halved year-on-year. At the beginning of the year, lithium carbonate was still at a high level of nearly 600,000 tons, and at the end of the year, in the spot market, the price of lithium carbonate tons was below 100,000 yuan, and the annual price fell by more than 83%.
In terms of the latest, according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, on February 23, battery-grade lithium carbonate **935-9.90,000 tons, the average price is 9630,000 tons, 100 yuan tons compared with the previous working day. According to the data released by Shanghai Ganglian, the battery-grade lithium carbonate ** on the day was flat compared with the last time, and the average price was reported at 970,000 tons. According to the data of the business community, the benchmark price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 990,000 tons, compared with the beginning of the month (10080,000 tons) compared to a decrease of 179%。
On the whole, this year's battery-grade lithium carbonate** is stable within 100,000, creating space for the decline of battery costs.
In addition to the fluctuation of raw materials, battery manufacturers also focus on modifying the process structure and optimizing the improvement of battery materials. In order to improve the new process and apply new technologies, based on the pioneering position in the field of related batteries, and form a leading edge by virtue of differentiated strategies, so as to bring strong industrial benefits.
EVark data shows that in terms of production capacity, by the end of 2026, the planned total production capacity of the world's 46 companies included in the statistical scope will reach 6,7300GWh, an increase of 182 compared to the actual production capacity in the first half of 20233%。
On the demand side, the global demand for power (energy storage) batteries in 2023 and 2026 will be 1096 respectively5GWh and 26146GWh, the industry-wide nominal capacity utilization rate will increase from 46 in 20230% down to 38 in 20268%。
The structural overcapacity and destocking pressure in the battery industry will continue, and in the absence of obvious technological breakthroughs, it is expected that a large amount of production capacity will rely on **advantages**.
In addition, since 2020, in order to cope with the anxiety of power batteries and enhance their voice in the industrial chain, OEMs have intensively released self-developed and self-made power battery plans. After combing the battery network, it was found that by the end of 2023, the self-developed and self-made power battery plans of domestic OEMs such as BYD, Great Wall Motor, NIO, Geely Automobile, GAC Group, Changan Automobile, Li Automobile, China FAW, Chery Group, SAIC Group, and JAC Automobile are gradually being implemented. And in order to control costs and grasp the initiative, more and more car companies are joining the ranks of self-developed batteries or increasing technical reserves.
In 2024, the "battle between oil and electricity" will enter a critical year, and the market competition will become more and more fierce, and how the price reduction space of the core component battery will become the focus of the industry.
According to Soochow's recent analysis, from a cost point of view, the domestic low-end battery has fallen to cash cost, and it has basically bottomed out. Since the second half of 2023, the domestic battery ** has fallen rapidly, the price of lithium carbonate has been reduced, and the competition has been fierce. In February 2024, the iron-lithium power cell **04 yuan wh (tax included) is close to the cost price.
Soochow **, for example, according to 950,000 tons of lithium carbonate** is calculated, and the BOM cost of lithium iron cells is 027 yuan wh, manufacturing cost 006 yuan Wh, considering 95% yield and 70% capacity utilization, the cost of battery cells is 037 yuan wh (excluding tax), the cost of tax has exceeded 04 Wh, cash cost including tax is 038 yuan Wh, some lithium iron cells have fallen to cash costs.
Soochow pointed out that from the perspective of raw materials, lithium carbonate still has room to fall to 80,000, and most of the midstream materials have limited room to decline, so the impact of follow-up raw materials on batteries is expected to be only 001-0.02 yuan wh, but ** space is very limited.
Yu Qingjiao, Secretary-General of Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance and Chairman of the Battery 100 Association, pointed out that in 2024, the battery new energy track will reach a key node, promoting the industry from involution competition to rational game. The industry is facing many challenges, such as product destocking, slowing down the pace of industry expansion, overseas market development is still difficult, and the challenge of intelligent car companies is intensifying.
There are opportunities under the challenges, Yu Qingjiao suggested that while focusing on the improvement of product and technology competitiveness, we should fully tap the growth potential of the market segment, and strengthen the resilience of the chain in view of the supply and demand of bulk commodities and the risk of fluctuations.