Friday's ** fell numb, the last time it was so**, it was on Wednesday, and it came again so soon. When it will be the end, everyone is guessing, but guessing again and again is wrong. Everyone is also guessing when real estate will end, but they are all wrong again and again. ** And the current performance of the property market, that is, the balance sheet does not want to struggle, and the two bitter melons that bear on a vine. In the past January, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies increased by more than 33% year-on-year, and what is more ugly than the sales data is the performance express report of real estate companies. The performance of private enterprises is directly ignored, and the data of some state-owned enterprises are also declining in great strides, which makes people unable to calm down. The future direction of real estate has now entered a stage where everyone is guessing, and the only one with a high reference is the next-door neighbor Japan. The same deleveraging after the crazy leverage, the same adjustment after the real estate explosion, the same is the decline in the demographic dividend after entering the aging stage, the same is the decrease in the population entering the city in the later stage of urbanization, and the same is the group of buyers with strong real estate thinking.
At that time, Japan also felt that it could win steadily, and then achieve a soft landing in the property market, and then housing prices fell for 20 years. The following chart is the trend of housing prices in Japan after the bursting of the real estate bubble in Japan
Japan's housing prices have fallen for 20 years, falling by about 90% of the **, and then completing the stop, isn't it terrifying? It was not until the introduction of ** economics and the beginning of crazy money printing that housing prices began to pick up, and in the context of the global water release, the historical peak recovery was completed.
Will our property market be an exception? At present, you say that it will be an exception, and I guess not many people believe it. In the case of the housing price index, our problem is still very serious, and we account for less than half of the 20 high-priced cities in the chart below. But when it comes to per capita income, how many cities can we rank in? 
The income-to-house price ratio is a measurement tool that may lapse for a period of time, but not permanently. For those who buy a house, the later repayment of the loan will ultimately be supported by income. Just looking at the data, our property market adjustment is far from over. Our house prices began to be officially adjusted, which is after 2021, and it has been less than three years since it is full, and the average ** overall decline of second-hand houses (new houses because of **distortion, no need to look) is now only a little over 10%. There is still a lot of room for adjustment, not to mention that there is room for a 90% drop like Japan, and there is a possibility of a 50% drop. Will we be an exception? It is difficult to be an exception in high probability, after all, we are not the same as Japan, our industrial structure has not yet completed the high-end transformation, and in addition to real estate debts and resident debts, we also have about 70 trillion urban investment bonds. The problems we need to solve are no easier than those in Japan, and if we add the international environment, the difficulty factor is doubled.
In view of the limited adjustment range and time, and the decline in income growth caused by the downgrade of economic growth, our overall housing prices will inevitably continue, at least for 5 years. But we are not so pessimistic, because our market capacity is large enough to produce some local, structural **. For example, housing prices in first- and second-tier cities, local plates, may be more resistant. A small decline is not a problem, and it will not cause systemic financial risks, so this kind of decline is also within the tolerance range of the policy. Housing prices are not managed by administrative means, you can speculate or stop falling, ** is traded by everyone, you prohibit others from reducing the price of new houses, but you can't prohibit second-hand housing profits**. For sustained house prices**, it is more of an expectation fulfillment, and confidence must be reversed in order to stop the decline. But it's so hard. It's like a big plane is landing, and it touches the runway to slow down and taxi, and you have to let him take off immediately. At the very least, it would take a complicated and time-consuming landing, followed by a few kilometers of slow acceleration and accumulating acceleration. Everyone has a number in their hearts, don't toss around