In the past January, according to regulatory rules, some real estate companies have disclosed performance forecasts, especially those with significant losses, which must be forecasted. There are many real estate companies, the performance is simply too ugly, such as Jinke's pre-loss of 4.8-7.8 billion yuan, such as Shimao's pre-loss of 2.6-4 billion yuan.
The losses of these real estate companies are still expected, but the losses of some state-owned enterprises are a bit unexpected.
According to the performance forecast, some state-owned enterprises have suffered large losses, such as:
OCT has a pre-loss of 5.1-7.2 billion yuan, the first share has a pre-loss of 5.8-6.8 billion yuan, Greenland has a pre-loss of 7.0-9 billion yuan, and CCCC has a pre-loss of 1.7 billion yuan, turning from profit to loss.
In addition to these state-owned enterprises with net losses, some state-owned enterprises also saw a significant decline in net profit, such as Poly's net profit attributable to the parent fell by 35%, and Gemdale's net profit attributable to the parent fell by 85%.
As the last ballast stone of the real estate industry, the state-owned enterprises have now experienced a decline in net profit, or a large loss, which is still very dampening everyone's confidence in this industry. Since the wave of debt defaults of private real estate enterprises in 2021, everyone has pinned the future of real estate on state-owned enterprises, and they all feel that state-owned enterprises will not have major problems.
Last year, the net profit of many state-owned enterprises declined, mainly due to several reasons:
First, before the first land, now the assets of the entire real estate industry have shrunk, and housing prices have declined. The sales of the first meeting at the beginning of the land acquisition have long been unable to be realized, and the decline in net profit is inevitable. Even in the second half of 2022, the land taken by ** still seems to be expensive.
Second, since last year, the entire real estate industry has reduced prices and sold violently, private real estate enterprises have taken the initiative to fight the first battle, and state-owned enterprises can only follow the price reduction. Last year, several projects of central enterprises were reported by the owners who were sold at a discount of 80% or even 7%. Most of the projects of state-owned enterprises are in first- and second-tier cities, and the sales unit price is relatively high, and the total price is also high, and a slight discount will have a great impact on the income statement.
The third is the provision of bad debts. In the past two years, many real estate cooperation projects have had to choose mergers and acquisitions or exit due to partner problems. Although some state-owned enterprises do not account for a large proportion of projects in third- and fourth-tier cities, there are still some state-owned enterprises that have more projects in third- and fourth-tier cities, and normal administrative expenses must be maintained, and these projects still have a great impact on the profits of the entire group.
The current problem in the real estate industry is that the confidence of the entire sales market is insufficient, resulting in some enterprises that were originally financially sound, and gradually began to suffer from bloody difficulties. For example, since the second half of last year, Vanke and Gemdale, which have been in constant public opinion, are the best examples.
In the first half of 2023, due to great expectations for the recovery of the real estate industry and based on political tasks, many state-owned enterprises have expanded their balance sheets on a large scale, and a large number of short-term bonds issued in the first half of the year are used to expand and acquire land against the market. Looking back now, there was a great business risk in expanding and acquiring land at that time, and the payment collection for many projects was not ideal.
However, a number of state-owned enterprises are still safe for the time being, after all, the financing channels of state-owned enterprises are still smooth, the sales cash flow is not good, and the financing cash flow is on top. However, the borrowed money will eventually be repaid by the sales proceeds, and the key depends on when the real estate will pick up, and time is really running out.
How to make the real estate recovery, the current policy needs to be strengthened, I hope that the good policy can be out as soon as possible.