Once upon a time, Moutai, as a model of A-share value investment, was the belief in the hearts of many shareholders. At that time, many high-quality companies with high growth and wide moats would also be called "Mao". However, since February 18, 21, after hitting a historical high of 2519, Moutai has begun to stage **, and as of today, the stock price has fallen to 1642 yuan, a decline of as much as 35%! Could it be that the current price investment logic of liquor is not valid?
Let's first take a look at the changes in net profit and gross profit margin of the liquor industry in the past ten years:
Judging from the data from 2013 to 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent company of the liquor industry has started a steady upward trend since 16 years. As of December 31, 22, the net profit attributable to the parent of the entire liquor industry was as high as 1305100 million, the gross profit of the industry is maintained at more than 80%, and the return on equity (ROE) is stable at more than 25% all year round, reaching 2641% level. In terms of profitability and quality of the liquor industry, the liquor industry is still a proper Taurus industry.
Let's take a look at the growth of the liquor industry in the past decade:
Judging from the data from 2013 to 2022, the liquor industry has experienced a slight decline in operating income during the 13-14 years, but from 14 to the latest data, the liquor industry has achieved steady growth every year, and the year-on-year growth rate has recovered by more than 10% since the bottom of 20 years, and the growth rate in December 22 was 15% year-on-year. From the steady growth of liquor revenue in the past ten years and the current double-digit year-on-year growth trend, the prospects of the liquor industry are still bright, and there is still a lot of room for the market to rise.
So from the perspective of the industry's valuation, is the current valuation of liquor appropriate?
This is a valuation comparison chart of liquor based on the CSI 300 index pull. The current PE of the CSI 300 is 1027, the PE of the liquor industry is only 2375。What is this concept? It's equivalent to the current liquor that you can use at the valuation level at the beginning of 19 years!
It just happened to be the starting point of the 19-year-old liquor wave!
So, if you're really a value investor, then the current liquor industry:
1. In terms of profitability and quality, the current liquor industry is still a proper Taurus industry;
2. In terms of growth space, the current liquor can still achieve double-digit growth, the industry prospects are still bright, and the market still has a lot of room for development;
3. In terms of valuation, the current valuation of the liquor industry is equivalent to the starting point of the 19-year liquor **, 23The valuation of 75 is quite reasonable for the stable profitability and high growth of liquor.
Warren Buffett once said that a good investment is to hold a reasonable number of high-quality companies for a long time until the fundamentals deteriorate. So the current investment in the liquor industry is equivalent to using a reasonable ** to ** high-quality industry. So can you still buy the liquor industry in 24 years, have you seen through it?