Electricity consumption is a "barometer" of economic operation. According to data released by the China Electricity Council, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the country in 2023 will be 922 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 67%, an increase of 3 percent over 20221 percentage point. Electricity consumption across the country continued to rebound, releasing a positive signal of economic recovery.
Looking at the total amount, electricity consumption is stable and improving, and economic development is full of confidence.
In 2023, China's electricity consumption will walk out of an upward curve, and the electricity consumption of the whole society will increase year-on-year in each quarter6% and 100%, the year-on-year growth rate accelerated quarter by quarter. Although there are reasons for the low electricity base in the same period due to the impact of the epidemic in 2022, it more reflects that with the gradual recovery of consumption and the increase of productivity of enterprises, China's economy is recovering steadily, and the economic operation is full of vitality and potential.
Looking at the quality, new momentum continues to accumulate, and the economic development structure is better.
Rural revitalization is full of vitality. Thanks to China's continuous investment in improving rural power infrastructure and promoting agricultural production, electrification and industrial upgrading of rural industries, the electricity consumption of the primary industry will increase by 11% year-on-year in 20235%, with an average annual growth rate of 114%, the rapid growth of electricity consumption in the primary industry, reflecting the good situation of agricultural and rural production and strong economic vitality.
The transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry is accelerating. In 2023, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry will increase by 6% year-on-year5%, and the year-on-year growth rate increased from 42% rose to 9 in the fourth quarter4%。The annual electricity consumption of high-tech and equipment manufacturing in the manufacturing industry increased by 11 percent year-on-year3%, exceeding the overall growth level of the manufacturing industry by 39 percentage points, the year-on-year growth rate of each quarter showed a quarter-by-quarter upward trend, reflecting the obvious trend of transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure of the manufacturing industry, and the continuous growth of new drivers of economic growth.
The service sector has recovered steadily. In 2023, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry will increase by 12 percent year-on-year2%, the year-on-year growth rate of each quarter and the two-year average growth rate are generally on the rise. From the perspective of industries, the annual electricity consumption growth rate of wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, leasing and business services, transportation, warehousing and postal services is 14% to 18% year-on-year, and these four industries will be hit hard by the epidemic in part of 2022, and the recovery trend after the epidemic is obvious. It is worth noting that new energy vehicles have become a new engine for the growth of electricity consumption, and the rapid development of the industry has driven the charging and swapping service industry to increase electricity consumption by 78% year-on-year in 20231%, with an average annual growth rate of 79 in the past five years4%。
The coordination of regional development has been enhanced. In 2023, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions will increase year-on-year1% and 51%。Among them, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the western and eastern regions is relatively leading. Benefiting from abundant energy resources, continuous infrastructure construction and orderly industrial transfer, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the western region has outperformed that of the eastern region, showing a good momentum of economic development. As the main engine of China's economy, the eastern region has a rapid industrial recovery and strong resilience. According to the data of State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power, the electricity consumption of the three major industries in Jiangsu will all achieve positive growth in 2023, and the industrial electricity consumption will increase by 7% year-on-year2%。Among them, the annual electricity consumption of the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 26% year-on-year, contributing 18% to the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society1%。
Looking at the future, electricity consumption will maintain rigid growth, and the pressure to ensure supply cannot be ignored.
On the one hand, China's macro economy will continue to maintain steady growth in 2024, supporting the further increase in electricity consumption demand. On the other hand, under the guidance of the "dual carbon" goal, the level of electrification in industry, construction, transportation, agriculture, and residential life has continued to increase, driving a significant increase in electricity consumption demand. In addition, in recent years, China has continuously strengthened the layout of digital infrastructure, coordinated the construction of network infrastructure and computing infrastructure, and developed new infrastructure such as big data centers and 5G base stations. These new infrastructures are both emerging industries and high-power-consuming industries, which will objectively promote the growth of electricity consumption.
The China Electricity Council predicts that the country's electricity consumption will increase by about 6% in 2024 compared with 2023. Taking into account the growth of electricity consumption demand and the commissioning of power sources, it is expected that the national power supply and demand situation will be tightly balanced in 2024. During the peak summer and winter, under the premise of fully considering the mutual assistance of inter-provincial and inter-regional power, some provincial power grids in North China, East China, Central China, Southwest China, and South China are tight.
To ensure power supply is to ensure economy. In view of the tight situation of local electricity consumption, power enterprises should shoulder the primary responsibility of ensuring power supply, make every effort to ensure the safety and stability of the large power grid, and guard the bottom line of people's livelihood electricity. The department should do a good job in the construction of primary energy tracking and monitoring, load early warning and disaster emergency response mechanism, increase the release of advanced coal production capacity, and guide thermal coal to stabilize in a reasonable range; Make full use of inter-provincial and inter-regional transmission channels, optimize the allocation of power resources on a larger scale, and provide strong power guarantee for economic and social development.
*:Economy**.