In 2018, the output value of China's manufacturing industry was 3With the full support of the White House staff and technical adviser team, Trump launched a war against China, and a war without gunpowder was staged again between China and the United States. During Trump's tenure, he tried to obstruct China's peaceful development process through means such as war, tariff increases, and political pressure, but after a pair of punches came down, it did not produce obvious results. China is even more in 2021 with 4With a manufacturing output of $87 trillion, the world is outstanding, and in this year, Trump**, the aging Biden succeeded the United States**. Just a few days after Biden took office, Eric Schmidt, the founder of the American China strategy think tank CSG, led his CSG to submit a 33-page strategy report of nearly 100,000 words to the White House to deal with China's technology competition. Among them, Japan, South Korea, India and Australia are the support points of the Indo-Pacific strategy against China, while Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Finland, the Netherlands, Sweden and other countries are the main countries in all links of the Western semiconductor chain. After that, the United States repositioned its new strategy to contain China's rise, and chose to re-attack China in the field of high-tech manufacturing in the manufacturing industry, specifically to launch a chip war against China. On August 9, 2022, Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act, which promotes the "reshoring" of chip manufacturing to the United States through huge industrial subsidies of $52.7 billion and provisions to curb competition, while prohibiting companies of the United States and its allies and partners who receive subsidies from building or expanding advanced process chip factories in China and other countries of concern within 10 years. Prior to this, due to the huge manufacturing cost difference between the United States and other countries such as China, the production of semiconductors in the United States fell from 37% of the global market share in 1990 to 21% in 2020, and the proportion of advanced process chip production was almost zero.
In the process of the chip war between China and the United States, Biden**'s goal is to ensure that the United States produces 20% of the world's advanced process chips by 2030 and become a major manufacturer of the most advanced semiconductor chips. In order to promote the "chip alliance" plan, the United States has also mobilized high-tech chip companies and related business organizations to promote mutual investment and financing between chip companies in the United States and its allies, so as to reconstruct the layout of the global chip industry chain. The United States hopes to coordinate the chip industry policies of all parties in the "Chip Alliance", jointly establish a joint R&D center for advanced process chips, and develop advanced process chips below 2 nanometers, thereby widening the technological generation gap between China and the "Chip Alliance" countries.
It can be seen from the above-mentioned series of policy measures promoted by the United States that the United States is trying to completely choke China's throat in the field of high-end chips below 7 nanometers, and further strangle China's chip industry in the cradle. At a time when the United States, South Korea, Japan, the Netherlands and other alliance countries have formed a group to block the export of advanced process chips and lithography equipment for China, Chinese semiconductor companies are actively attacking the traditional semiconductor chip market above 14 nanometers, which accounts for more than 70% of the world's semiconductor market. To this end, China has provided about $150 billion in policy subsidies to the semiconductor industry over the past decade. "We are seeing worrying potential signs that China is expanding the production of traditional chips above 14 nanometers in an attempt to make it more difficult for American companies to compete," U.S. analysts claimed. Even so, according to the statistics of the US Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), among the 17 global chip companies with revenue of more than $10 billion in 2021, Intel, Samsung Electronics, TSMC, etc. are in the forefront, and SMIC, the largest chip company in Chinese mainland, is only ranked 25th in the world. It can be seen that the chip companies of the United States and its major allies have strong overall strength. This is also an important reason why China is in a predicament in a short period of time in the face of the chip alliance strategy of the United States.
However, analyzing the containment and anti-containment strategies adopted by the United States and China, it can be seen that the United States' containment strategy against China is mainly to attack China in the field of high-end chips below 7 nanometers, taking the high-end technology route, and China's anti-containment strategy against the United States is to capture the traditional semiconductor chip market above 14 nanometers, which accounts for more than 70% of the world's semiconductor market, and takes the market-oriented route, that is, seizing 70% of the traditional semiconductor market is China's priority. Faced with the choice between technology and market, China and the United States have adopted completely different strategies.
In response to the Sino-US chip war with semiconductors as the core, the vast majority of people believe that the key to victory or defeat is the high-end process chip below 7 nanometers, but in fact, this is a serious mistake made by the United States in strategic decision-making, the main reason is who wins the market dominance, who will win the final victory, which is what we call "the market is king". Although the high-end chip market below 7nm is an important battlefield, it is not the main battlefield. The reason is that, first, Moore's Law has reached the limit, this law perfectly explains the speed of progress in IT technology, simply put, the lower the chip manufacturing process, the more transistors can be accommodated, the better the corresponding processor performance, in the past 50 years, thanks to the progress of semiconductor equipment, the number of transistors on each chip has increased by more than 10 million times, the processing speed has increased by nearly 10,000 times, and the annual cost has decreased by more than 45%, This is the fundamental reason why human beings can transition from a huge brick machine to an intelligent machine and popularize it in the whole society. However, in 2016, Gordon Moore, the founder of Moore's Law, said that it would become more and more difficult to continue to push down new process nodes, and in 2017, Huang Jenxun, CEO of Nvidia, the world's top semiconductor manufacturer, admitted that Moore's Law has ended. Because designers can no longer create CPU architectures that enable higher instruction set parallelism, the number of transistors is growing by 50% per year, but CPU performance is only growing by 10% per year. According to the 2021 report of the China Semiconductor Association, the market share of advanced process chips below 7 nanometers is only 2%, while semiconductor chips above 14 nanometers account for more than 70% of the entire semiconductor market. The third reason is that the downstream market for advanced process chips with a market share of 2% is still shrinking, while the semiconductor chip market above 14 nanometers is expanding sharply. 7 nanometer below high-end process chips are usually used in consumer electronic products, such as smartphones and tablets, etc., since the first negative growth in 2018, global smartphone shipments have shrunk for 4 consecutive years, and in recent years, Xiaomi, Huawei and other mobile phone manufacturers have turned to the field of electric vehicles, it is precisely because they see that the smartphone market is becoming more and more red-sea, trying to open up new growth points. However, 14 nanometers and above low-end chips are mostly used in new energy vehicles, in addition to power, the most significant feature of new energy vehicles is highly intelligent and electronic, which requires the support of tens of thousands of semiconductor chips, therefore, in the context of the global large-scale replacement of traditional fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles, the automotive industry is rising to become the largest downstream terminal user of the chip industry, and China is a well-deserved king in this field. In time, after the smoke of the chip war between China and the United States has cleared, we will know who the real winner is.
The above is purely a personal point of view, inappropriate, welcome to leave a message in the message area to correct, if you can add attention, likes, favorites and **, I will be grateful, thank you! Thank you!