Following February 6**, A-shares continued on February 7**, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 2,800 points. The lithium battery sector also remained active today, with nearly seventy percent of listed companies closing up, of which Kelida rose 503%, Xiamen tungsten new energy rose 470%, BYD rose 369%。
In the just-concluded A-share performance forecast season, the performance of all aspects of the lithium battery sector was different. With the downward trend of lithium carbonate, the upstream mining enterprises that once "owned lithium as king" collectively stalled. Although the cost decline has brought some benefits, the fierce competition and excess supply have also put pressure on the middle and downstream enterprises, and the performance of battery manufacturers has been differentiated.
Some brokerages proposed that the current price-earnings ratio of the lithium battery industry is about 17 times, which is a historical low and has a certain investment value. In 2024, will lithium batteries be able to regain lost ground?
The performance of 2023 is mixed, and the upstream is no longer "lithium is king".
Wind data shows that among the 99 listed companies in the lithium battery sector, 62 have disclosed performance forecasts, of which 11 are expected to achieve positive growth in performance, 3 are expected to turn losses into profits, 29 are expected to decline in performance, 14 will lose money, and 5 will continue to lose money.
Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, both of which are lithium salt giants, have announced that their performance will decline sharply.
Ganfeng Lithium expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.2 billion yuan to 6.2 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 79 percent from the same period last year52% to 6976%。Ganfeng Lithium said that during the reporting period, due to the cyclical impact of the lithium industry, the growth rate of terminal demand slowed down, lithium salt products fell sharply, and the decline in lithium ore raw materials was smaller than the decline in lithium salt and downstream products, resulting in a decline in the company's gross profit margin. In addition, the company made an asset impairment provision for related assets in accordance with accounting standards, so the company's performance decreased significantly year-on-year.
Tianqi Lithium expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 66 in 2023200 million yuan to 89500 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6290% to 7256%。The listed company said that in 2023, affected by the fluctuation of the lithium chemical product market, the company's lithium chemical product sales** decreased compared with the previous year, and the gross profit of lithium chemical products declined. In addition, the expected decline in investment income from associates and the expected increase in asset impairment losses accrued in the current period compared with the previous year also affected Tianqi Lithium's performance.
A number of other upstream mining companies also have a performance forecast, such as mining, Rongjie shares, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Yahua Group, etc., with a performance decline of more than 80%, and a sharp decline in lithium salt has become the main reason for the performance of upstream enterprises. According to the history of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network SMM**, battery-grade lithium carbonate increased from 51 at the end of 202220,000 tons to 9 by the end of 2023690,000 tons, a drop of 8107%。
In addition to the upstream mining enterprises that have collectively stalled, the downstream enterprises are differentiated.
At present, among the battery companies that have disclosed their performance, the first-tier manufacturers CATL and BYD, the second-tier manufacturers Guoxuan Hi-Tech and EVE Lithium Energy are expected to increase their performance, and Funeng Technology, which is also in the second camp, is expected to continue to lose money.
According to the disclosure, Funeng Technology expects a loss in the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2023, which will be -210.7 billion to -17$2.4 billion. The company said that in 2023, the high raw material ** in the opening inventory of goods leads to higher product costs, and the number of inventory goods is large, and the company's sales of goods in the opening inventory account for a relatively high proportion during the reporting period, and product sales ** with the spot ** decreased, thus affecting the company's gross profit in the reporting period. In addition, the provision for inventory decline exceeded 500 million yuan, the investment loss was more than 400 million yuan, and the fair value change caused by the stock price of the invested company was more than 2500 million yuan and other matters also adversely affected the performance of Funeng Technology.
Shell financial reporters paid attention to the fact that for battery companies that have achieved performance growth, industry growth, large-scale development and cost reduction have all helped drive performance.
Guoxuan Hi-Tech expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 800 million yuan to 1.1 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 157% to 253%. The listed company said that in 2023, the company's overseas business has shown initial results, and the delivery capacity of the energy storage business has been further improved. In addition, the company's raw material costs have further decreased, especially the company's comprehensive introduction of the Volkswagen Group management system to achieve internal cost reduction and efficiency increase.
Although lithium carbonate has led to a significant decline in the performance of upstream enterprises, the first quality of raw materials has sharply reduced the pressure on battery companies to a certain extent. "According to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, taking the prismatic lithium iron phosphate battery (week) (energy storage type, 280ah) ** as an example, while lithium carbonate ***, its ** has also fallen by 54 compared with the end of 202208%。
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 will exceed 4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1500% -20.00% of EVE said that during the reporting period, the company's shipment scale grew rapidly as the new factory and new production line entered the mass production stage.
At the same time as the upstream raw material lithium carbonate is declining, the ternary cathode, electrolyte and other links are also in the context of low costs and intensified competition caused by changes in market supply and demand, and the performance of enterprises has also been under pressure.
According to the performance report of Rongbai Technology, which produces ternary cathode materials, the company's operating income in 2023 will be 2287.3 billion yuan, down 24 percent year-on-year07%；Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies59.3 billion yuan, down 56 percent year-on-year17%。
Shanshan Co., Ltd., a cathode material manufacturer, expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 8 in 2023600 million yuan to 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59% to 68%.
How to get out of the doldrums.
Excess and price reduction have almost become the common keywords of all new energy tracks in the past year, and lithium batteries are no exception.
Power battery is one of the most critical components of new energy vehicles and energy storage systems. According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the capacity utilization rate of China's power battery in 2022 will be 516%。Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said not long ago that this figure is likely to drop to 41% in 2023.
The lower capacity utilization rate reflects the severity of the possible overabundance. Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, once said that the current planned production capacity of the power battery industry may have reached 4800GWh, and the industry will return to a rational state.
However, there are also views that the so-called industry capacity is a dynamic equilibrium value. Zeng Duohong, chief analyst of Soochow's new electric industry, said in an interview at the end of last year that it is estimated that the capacity utilization rate of leading manufacturers will have an inflection point in the second half of 2024 at the earliest, and the capacity utilization rate of the industry is expected to increase in 2025.
In the context of industry surplus, the stock prices of listed companies in the lithium battery sector are also difficult to strengthen. The stock price of the leading CATL fell by nearly 30% in a year, while the total market value of the lithium battery sector fell by nearly 2 trillion.
According to the research report of Hualong ** in January this year, the trend of the lithium battery industry in 2023 will be weaker than that of the CSI 300 Index, and the relative income will underperform the CSI 300 Index by about 20 percentage points. At present, the PE (price-earnings ratio) of the lithium battery industry is about 17 times, which is a historical low, and the industry has a certain investment value.
The lithium industry is a cyclical industry, and lithium products are mainly affected by many factors such as market supply and demand, industry development, and economic situation. At the end of last year, Rongjie shares told investors that the current lithium products are at a low level in the past two years, and the downstream new energy vehicles and energy storage and other terminal application markets still maintain a continuous growth trend, which has a positive role in promoting the upstream materials and resources industry.
Beijing News Shell Financial Reporter Zhu Yueyi.
Edited by Xu Chao.
Proofreading by Liu Baoqing.