At the beginning of January, various listed real estate companies successively released their sales data for 2023, and more than seventy percent of listed real estate companies will have a decline in sales in 2023.
In the past two days, major listed real estate companies have successively released their performance forecasts for 2023.
The real estate sword has been roughly counted, and it can only be usedTragic! two words to describe the performance of listed real estate companies in 2023.
As the only listed real estate company in Xi'an, Tiandiyuan also ushered in its first annual report since its listing.
More than seventy percent of real estate companies are in pre-loss.
As of 12 o'clock on February 1, 2024, Real Estate Fangjian has counted the performance forecasts released by a total of 38 listed real estate companies in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, including leading real estate companies, medium-sized real estate companies, and smaller real estate companies, which can basically cover real estate companies of all sizes.
The results show that among the 38 real estate companies, only 10 will make a profit in 2023, and the other 28 will lose money.
This means,In 2023, more than seventy percent of listed real estate companies will have a pre-loss in profit!
The net profit is more than 10 billionPoly Development, C&D shares, Hang Lung Group expects a net profit of 29With 3.1 billion Hong Kong dollars, several real estate companies such as Wangfujing, Gemdale Group, Beijing Urban Construction and Rongsheng Development are expected to have a net profit of hundreds of millions of yuan, and Xiangjiang Holdings and Beichen Industrial are expected to have a net profit of less than 100 million yuan.
Among the real estate companies that are pre-lossed,Greenland Holdings, China Fortune, Shoukai Shares, Overseas Chinese Town, and Jinke Shares all suffered losses of more than 5 billion yuanAmong them, Greenland Holdings' pre-loss of 7 billion to 9 billion yuan is up to now"Loss King".！The upper limit of Shimao shares and Zhongnan Construction is also close to 5 billion yuan.
On the whole, the real estate enterprises with pre-losses are not only private enterprises, but also the central enterprises represented by CCCC Real Estate, Overseas Chinese Town, Joy City Holdings, etc., as well as state-owned enterprises represented by Shenzhen Zhenye and Huayuan Real Estate, have also suffered pre-losses.
Under this round of property market adjustment, the sales performance and operation of real estate enterprises have no direct relationship with whether the enterprise is a state-owned enterprise, a central enterprise, a mixed-ownership enterprise, or a private enterprise.
From the perspective of the most important reasons for the pre-loss of various real estate companies, there are two main reasons:One is the decrease in the settlement of the year, and the other is the impairment provision.
Especially in the case of the general decline in housing prices in some cities, the impairment has a great impact on the net profit of the listed real estate companies.
Of course, in the future, if the property market improves, some of the collective impairment will be reflected in the performance and whitewash the performance.
Taking Rongsheng Development as an example, it will suffer a huge loss of 16.3 billion yuan in 2022, making it the "loss king" of that year. In 2023, Rongsheng Development expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to be about 400 million yuan to 600 million yuan, which has achieved a good profitability.
Of course, even for profitable real estate companies, it is an indisputable fact that profitability is declining. Taking Poly Development, the new "real estate brother" as an example, its revenue will increase by 23% in 2023In the case of 49%, operating profit decreased by 29% year-on-year89%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies also decreased by 34 year-on-year42%。
The decline in the real estate industry has also affected related industries.
The World Union Bank, whose main business is real estate sales**, will have a pre-loss of 2-300 million yuan in 2023, and the real estate Internet platform 365.com will have a pre-loss of 75 million to 1100 million yuan.
Heaven and earth source pre-loss 28-3.500 million yuan.
As the only listed real estate company in Xi'an, Tiandiyuan also released the "2023 Annual Performance Forecast" after January 29, 2024**.
The earnings forecast shows:Tiandiyuan expects to achieve a net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of -280 million yuan to -350 million yuan in 2023, compared with the same period last year, there will be a loss.
The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of -283.21 million yuan to -353.21 million yuan in 2023.
This is the first time in the 20 years since its listing that Tiandiyuan has suffered a net profit loss attributable to the parent company!
From 2003 to 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Tiandiyuan from 2003 to 2007 was less than 100 million yuan, exceeded 100 million yuan for the first time in 2008, exceeded 200 million yuan in 2011, and then the net profit attributable to the parent company for many years was more than 200 million, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of Tiandiyuan in 2018 and 2019 was more than 400 million yuan, and more than 300 million yuan in the three years from 2020 to 2022.
In 2018 and 2019, it was the two years with the highest profit in the 20 years since Tiandiyuan was listed.
In the 2023 performance forecast, Tiandiyuan said that the main reasons for the loss of this period's performance are:
(1) During the reporting period, the gross profit level of real estate projects carried forward by the company decreased compared with the same period last year. During the period, in order to overcome the adverse impact of the continuous downward trend of the market, the company took the initiative to respond and actively implemented measures to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the management expenses and sales expenses in the reporting period were reduced compared with the previous year, but the overall decline in the profitability of the carry-over projects still had a certain impact on the net profit of the current period.
(2) During the reporting period, due to the market environment, the inventory of some of the company's real estate projects showed signs of impairment. The company dynamically adjusts its operation and sales strategies according to the market environment and product structure of the regions and cities where each project is located, and intends to make provision for impairment of part of the inventory after conducting impairment tests on the inventory in accordance with the requirements of accounting standards.
It can be seen that, like many real estate companies, Tiandiyuan's performance loss in 2023 has a certain relationship with the provision for impairment. Previously, from 2020 to 2022, Tiandiyuan was provided for impairment of 12.5 billion yuan, 15.7 billion yuan, 13.6 billion yuan.
As Xi'an base camp is the most important city in Tiandiyuan's performance, and Xi'an property market is one of the best cities in the country. Subsequently, with the improvement of the market in other cities, the impairment part of the provision is also expected to be repaired, which will be reflected in the profit of Tiandiyuan.
In 2024, the sales of real estate companies got off to a cold start.
Seeing the performance forecasts of various listed real estate companies in 2023, my heart has cooled a little.
Seeing the sales data of the top 100 real estate companies in January 2024, my heart is even cooler, just like the weather in the past few days.
Yesterday evening, the China Index Research Institute released the "January 2024 China Real Estate Enterprise Sales Performance Ranking", and Poly, Vanke, and China Merchants ranked among the top three.
According to data from the China Index Research Institute, in January 2024, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies will be 2815300 million yuanA year-on-year decrease of 333%, an increase of 1 from the same period last year6 percentage points。7 real estate companies with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 6 from the same period last year; There were 8 real estate companies exceeding 5 billion, a decrease of 1 from the same period last year.
In January 2023, as the epidemic has just been released, the property market has ushered in a retaliatory **. But in January this year, the market was beaten back to its original shape, which shows how difficult the current market is.
Therefore, you can see that the favorable policies for the property market have come again during this period of time.
On January 12, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Administration of Financial Supervision jointly issued itNotice on the Establishment of a Coordination Mechanism for Urban Real Estate Financing, pointing out that the Coordination Mechanism proposes a list of real estate projects that can be given financing support, so as to provide more precise support for real estate financing.
On January 24, the central bank and the State Administration of Financial Supervision announcedNotice on Doing a Good Job in the Management of Operating Property LoansIt expands the scope of use of operating property loans and increases the amount of loans, which may play an important role in improving the capital liquidity of real estate enterprises.
On January 26, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Administration of Financial Supervision held a deployment meeting on the coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing on the same day. At the meeting, Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, proposed"Fully give urban real estate regulation autonomy, and cities can adjust real estate policies according to local conditions"., sending a more positive signal.
In addition, Guangzhou has relaxed the purchase restriction of large units of more than 120 square meters, Shanghai has relaxed the purchase restriction requirements for single non-Shanghainese residents outside the outer ring, and Suzhou has completely canceled the housing purchase restriction ......
Next, the "bailout" policy of the property market in major cities will definitely be introduced in turn. It depends on whether a series of measures can really enhance market confidence after the implementation of a series of measures, which is reflected in the market sales side.
After all, the property market can't afford to continue to decline for too long!