Another round of deposit interest rate cuts! In depth good article .

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-02-24

No, as soon as the central mother cut the interest rate, the bank couldn't wait to lower the deposit rate.

Recently, the Daily Economic News reported that a number of small and medium-sized banks in Guangxi and Jilin issued intensive documents announcing the reduction of deposit interest rates.

Up to now, there are Bank of Guilin, Yushu Rural Commercial Bank, Lingui Rural Commercial Bank, Huadian Rural Commercial Bank, Guangxi Fengshan Rural Commercial Bank, Jiaohe Rural Commercial Bank, Lingchuan Shentong Village Bank, Fusui Shentong Village Bank, Qinzhou Qinnan National Village Bank, Nanning Xingning Changjiang Village Bank, etc10 small and medium-sized banks lowered their deposit interest ratesThe adjustment time is generally from February 21, 2024.

Interest rates on a variety of deposit products, such as demand deposits, time deposits, and large-denomination certificates of deposit, have fallen by between 10 and 60 basis points, respectively. Bank of Liuzhou lowered the most, and the five-year fixed deposit rate was reduced from 38% to 32%, the interest rate on large certificates of deposit with a five-year maturityThis is a 70 basis point reduction. I looked at the magnitude of everyone's downward adjustment, and it was basically cut down by twenty or thirty basis points.

We all know that the main way for banks to make money is to rely on the interest rate difference of deposits, absorb deposits at low interest rates, and lend at high interest rates.

Now that this path has been interrupted, the interest rate on lending is getting lower and lower, and the central mother is generous, and it has dropped by 25bp all of a sudden, and then the MLF (the loan interest rate that the central mother wholesales money to the bank) has not decreased. In other words, the cost of this round of interest rate cuts is basically pressed on the bank. Now the bank is really difficult to do, today I see that Huizhou's housing loans have broken through a new low again, and the first set is only 345%, the lowest in the country. The interest rate of the operating loan is as low as 2, and the loan manager began to be active again after the Spring Festival came back.

Isn't this a loss when the bank calculates? Banks are not open-minded, and in the end they can only allocate the costs to depositors.

So it's been a big circle, do you understand?

You think that the central mother has cut interest rates to give benefits to everyone, but in the end, this cost is still borne by the depositors. Interest income will continue to shrink as deposit rates fall year by year.

In January, people's deposits continued to explode253 trillion yuan, according to the data released by Phoenix.com Finance, China has been in China since 2020Residents' deposits have increased by 58 trillion yuan.

The volume of four years is equivalent to the sum of 2009 to 2019, which is an exaggeration. Every time I see the news of the explosion of deposits, I have to sigh that the Chinese people really don't have no money, but they just don't dare to spend money. Before the epidemic, everyone still paid attention to diversification and used the money to buy wealth management, and in the past two years, they have redeemed all of them to the bank to buy fixed deposits, and their deposits have exploded all of a sudden.

But the more you deposit, the lower the interest rate the bank will give you. Deposits are liabilities for banks, and now the bank loan business is not good, and it is impossible to "collect savings at high interest rates" as before, and even these four words will become history and will not appear again in the future.

For the full year of 2023, RMB loans increased by 2275 trillion yuan, but the annual increase in RMB deposits increased by 2574 trillion yuan.

Now that there are more and more deposits, and fewer and fewer loans, the cost of the bank will be higher and higher, so how can you obediently deposit in the bank and let you earn interest? It can only make the interest on the money you save less until the interest rate is zero. Since last year, the bank has lowered the deposit interest rate three times in a row in June, August and September, and it has only continued to reduce the deposit interest rate for the first time this year, and the Bank of Guilin has already lowered it twice in two months this year.

Now the big banks can't find deposits with interest rates of more than 3% in the country, and the small banks won't have them in the future, and the current interest is only 03%, which is equivalent to no interest.

At the same time, the more money is deposited in the bank, the faster it depreciates. This time, the central mother made a big move, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at one time, but I want to tell you that this is just the beginning.

After 1998, 2008, and 2015, another wave of interest rate cuts has come. Compared with the previous two rounds of interest rate cuts, this time the central mother's 25 basis point interest rate cut is nothing, and a bigger interest rate cut is ahead.

This time the interest rate is cut, I think many people are laughing at me and saying that I lack this interest? What is missing is a monthly payment. In fact, it's not that interest rate cuts don't work, but that the current rate has been reduced too little, and our interest rate is still on the high side so far. Take Japan as an example, when their economy is down, interest rates are very low, and mortgage interest rates are as low as 03%, which also includes 02. Mortgage insurance, that is, if you can't pay the mortgage due to serious illness, the insurance company will help you repay it. The same 1 million housing loan, the monthly payment in Japan is only 2,905 yuan, and in China according to the latest LPR it needs 4,745 yuan, a difference of nearly 2,000 yuan. Our mortgage of 1 million yuan has to be burdened with 700,000 yuan of interest, while Japan only has more than 40,000 yuan, which is considered high, and the interest rate was even lower when Japan's housing prices were low a few years ago. Of course, the growth rate of the Japanese economy was very low before, and we are still maintaining a growth rate of four or five or five points, and the income of residents is also five or six points, and it is not realistic to say zero interest rate now. However, it is possible to reduce it to 2%, which can not only reduce the debt burden of existing mortgage owners, but also release the money into the consumption field, and at the same time arouse everyone's interest in buying a house. As an intermediary, banks will certainly not suffer, and once the LPR is lowered, then the deposit rate will continue to fall. Now, whether it is ordinary people or some experts in the industry, everyone expects the LPR to be lowered to about 2%. And this also means that the era of zero interest rates on deposits is coming in the near future. What does it mean if the interest rate on deposits does fall to zero? That is, if you deposit your money in the bank, there is no interest on a dime, and it is likely that you will be charged a management fee, which is equivalent to a loss.

This is not unusual at all, in Europe, Japan, and the United States, in the era of zero interest rates and negative interest rates, banks have to charge you management fees, the purpose of course is to force you to take out money to spend and invest, and do not want you to lie down in the bank to sleep. As long as the interest rate is low enough and there is a lot of water, even if the price does not rise in a year or two, and after a long time, sooner or later you will have to rectify inflation, because maintaining a certain level of inflation is a necessary condition for economic growth. Europe and the United States have taught us a lesson in the past two years, and now you go abroad to see how much prices, especially in the service industry, have risen. So why don't Chinese travel abroad now, it's not that they can't afford it, it's not that they don't like it, but domestic tourism is more cost-effective. Why do Hong Kong people like to travel to the mainland to buy things? It's because it's cheap in the mainland now! The cumulative result of declining interest rates must be to promote the recovery of assets**. Now in the interest rate cut cycle, if you have a house in a second-tier city and want to replace it, it is very cost-effective to change it in the trough now, even if you don't plan to pay it back, I suggest you take it well and wait for it to pick up. Because for ordinary people in our country, there is only one way to maintain value and resist inflation in the long run, which is to buy high-quality real estate in first- and second-tier cities, which is China's core asset, China's hard currency, even if it falls now, but it will still rise back in the future.

Hotspot Engine Program

At present, our housing direction has been established, and there are two ways to go through affordable housing and commercial housing.

Affordable housing guarantees the housing of the people at the bottom, and commercial housing flows freely and returns to the market.

Now the mainstream view on the Internet is that housing prices will fall sharply, and the houses in China will not work, and you must also have your own cognition, which houses will work and which ones will not.

The house in the core area of the first and second lines is firmly grasped in the hand, which is the truth!

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