The controversy in American politics is not only about how to deal with the immigration issue, but also about the concentrated explosion of long-standing contradictions between Republicans and Democrats. This contradiction, if not properly handled, could trigger a second civil war in the United States.
First, let's review the first civil war in American history. At that time, the antagonism between the industrial capital of the North and the plantation capital of the South was the immediate trigger. The capital of the South has abundant raw material resources at their disposal, and they tend to have a low tariff policy in order to better engage with Europe**. The North, on the other hand, advocated higher tariffs to protect its own industrial products. This antagonism intensified in the 1860 election, which eventually led to the declaration of secession of the Southern states from the Union, triggering the first civil war in the United States.
In the first civil war, the North was in a situation of defeat and retreat. But Lincoln**'s Emancipation Proclamation changed the situation, and a large number of blacks fled to the North, destroying the economic foundations of the South, and ultimately leading to the defeat of the South. This historical event highlights the influence of political power on the course of war.
The reason why the United States is strong is that in addition to military power, it is supported by the dollar. However, the US dollar, as a global currency, has had a twofold impact on domestic industry. Although the dollar has an advantage in the international **, its blow to domestic industry cannot be ignored. The rise of China, in particular, has further intensified the competitive pressure on American industry.
Against this backdrop, the Republicans advocate isolationist policies to protect domestic industry, while the Democrats favor lowering tariffs and promoting the best relations with countries around the world. Despite partisan differences over tariff policy, the two parties have been consistent in their dealings with countries such as China. As a global manufacturing center, China's low-price competition for its products has a direct impact on the survival of American industry.
The emergence of Trump has exacerbated this contradiction. He succeeded in attracting the support of a large number of unemployed white voters, raising the slogan "Make America Great Again," but at the same time exacerbating the antagonism between industrial and financial capital. Trump's policy orientation, especially his stance on immigration, has further intensified American politics.
Now, let's refocus on immigration. At the end of World War II, the percentage of whites in the United States was as high as 90%, but by 2020, that percentage had dropped to 578%。In particular, the proportion of whites in the under-18 population has fallen below the 50% threshold. With the continued influx of non-white immigrants and the aging of native whites, the proportion of whites in the U.S. population is expected to decline further by 2030.
This demographic change not only affects the electoral competition between the two parties, but also has a profound impact on the future direction of American politics. Especially for white voters who believe that the status quo cannot be changed through electoral means, they may seek other ways to protect their interests.
Therefore, for the United States, how to properly handle all kinds of internal contradictions and how to deal with demographic changes will directly affect its future development direction. In the face of these challenges, the United States needs to be more rational and pragmatic in its domestic and foreign policies in order to avoid falling into the dangerous situation of a second civil war.
February** Dynamic Incentive Program