Small cap stocks are in place today**. The CSI 1000 fell 4%, the CSI 2000 fell 5%, and the Wind Micro Cap Index fell 6%.
A lot of people might say that the snowball is bursting or something.
Actually,At worst, the snowball is reduced to an ordinary index**. Therefore, as long as there is no leverage, there is no liquidation at all.
And the total number of snowballs is not large, about 20 billion per 100 points. Such a small amount can also affect the market, but it is relatively limited.
The point is that the CSI 500 is the index with the most snowballs. Theoretically, the snowball exploded, and the CSI 500 should have fallen the worst.
But in fact, the CSI 500 is down 2% today, far better than other small-cap indexes. The same is true for this year's performance.
Analysis to analysis, a more important reason surfaced, it should bePrivate placement neutral products are plummeting** or even liquidated.
Such products are usually focused on receipts. Because of the large number of small receipts and the small market capitalization, private equity can diversify investment and also have the advantage of quantitative research.
To put it simply,Private placements will go long on the tickets they are optimistic about and short the tickets they are not optimistic about, or directly short small-cap indexes**, such as CSI 500, CSI 1000, etc.
Especially in 2023, the smaller the market capitalization, the greater the increase. On the basis of the general decline of 10% in ** stocks, the CSI 2000 small ticket index rose by 6%, and micro-cap stocks soared by 30%.
So this kind of strategy has a very brainless hedging arbitrage. That is, long the batch with the smallest market capitalization**, and then short the index with a slightly larger market capitalization** (such as CSI 500 and CSI 1000). Brainless hedging and stable arbitrage have been realized.
However, there are two prerequisites for doing this:
First, it can be successfully shorted, that is, the way to borrow and lend securities should be smooth.
The second is to hope that the stock index will be higher. Because to short something, you certainly want its ** to be as high as possible.
In the past, these things were OK, but this year there are general problems.
First, under the appeal of investors, the regulator began to restrict securities lending. Except that restricted shares cannot be used as a source of securities, the trading of securities lending has been changed from T+0 to T+1.
Second, the decline of the stock index exceeded that of the spot. The stock index is the future of the index. Amid the pessimism of the market, the decline exceeded that of the spot.
All these have had an impact on the quantitative neutral strategy of private equity, and the strategy has begun to fail. Many products can only be reduced** or even liquidated outright.
With the liquidation of such products, the long power of micro-cap stocks has disappeared in large areas. This directly leads to the smaller the market capitalization, the greater the decline.
And the formation of reflexivity, the more micro-cap stocks fall, the faster such strategies fail, and the liquidation accelerates, further exacerbating the ** of micro-cap stocks.
That's not all.
Don't forget, the wind of micro-cap stocks blew in the public offering last year.
At that time, the whole public offering industry was analyzing, evaluating and promoting various micro-cap strategies against the market. There are many ** managers who can't bear the loneliness, and they turn from the radical to the small micro-disk, and the dead horse is healed as a live horse.
Many people are also chasing small and micro cap quants** or index** with excellent performance. Last year, this type of ** attracted much attention and expanded rapidly.
But this year, the situation has reversed. While the entire market is falling, small and micro-cap stocks are blowing up.
In January, the CSI 300 fell by 6%, which is really disgusting.
But the CSI 2000, a small-cap stock index, fell 21% in a month, which is really terrifying. The public offering of micro-cap stocks began to collapse on a large scale.
Of course, our readers should not step on the pit.
At the end of last year, when we analyzed the Beijing Stock Exchange 50, we analyzed small-cap stocks by the way. The conclusion is that small and micro cap stocks such as the BSE 50 should be sold. The historical articles are all there, you can go to them.
Because we're finding that valuations are overvalued across small-cap stocks. I'll put the picture back on that occasion.
Small and micro cap stocks have a lower ROE than ** stocks, but their valuations are higher than ** stocks.
You could argue that small-cap stocks may be better at growth, but here's the problemSmall-cap stocks are already valued at as much as growth. The original conclusion at that time was as follows:
Although A-shares have since fallen, butStocks are much more defensive than small-cap stocks.
I also know that it may not make much sense to talk about the difference between large and small caps now, and many people have given up A-shares to chase overseas **.
The way of investment is everyone's freedom, and it has nothing to do with whether you love the country or not. I just wanted to say:
Everyone understands the truth of investment, and most of the people who don't make money are just because they can't persevere in adversity;
We all know that you can't go to a place with a lot of people, but if you really wait for the ** to come, how many people can endure loneliness?
The investment method of most people, to put it bluntly, is to look at the picture and speakWhoever rises well will chase whomever he wants
Many people's so-called ** logic is just to find a reason to chase after rummaging through the market arguments.
Chasing the rise of ** white horse, that is, good companies can rise indefinitely;
Chasing small-cap stocks, that is, the pricing is insufficient, and there is room for the best;
Chasing growth stocks, that is, prosperity determines everything;
Chasing value stocks, that is, eating dividends is also good;
When chasing private enterprises, it is the inefficiency of state-owned enterprises;
When chasing state-owned enterprises, that is, private enterprises will run away**;
Chasing up A-shares, that is, the era of equity is coming, and A-shares are long-term;
Chasing U.S. stocks, that is, this time is different, there is no bull market in A-shares.
Perhaps, chasing up is the real logic, and speculation is the real mentality.
Finally, the next grid refers to 279。Sauce today. See you in the comments section.