After the Spring Festival, corn will change 180 degrees, will it rise sharply? Short answer: unlikely.
After a cold winter, the corn market ushered in spring. While the warmer temperatures have pleased the dryers and merchants, the corn has unfortunately not been as large as expected. There are still many uncertainties in the growth of corn after the Spring Festival, and it is impossible to rise in a straight line overnight.
First, although grain rights have been transferred from farmers to drying towers and merchants, corn has not risen steadily. It is true that after the farmer's corn is sold out, the corn will be sold, but there is no guarantee that the corn will show a sustained upward trend. In fact, corn has fluctuated up and down over the years, and growing conditions in different regions can also have an impact on it. In addition, there has been no significant increase in port arrivals, vessel capacity or car traffic, all of which can weigh on the market**. Therefore, it is relatively unfair to base market trends only on the progress of sales and surplus grains, and supply and demand must also be taken into account.
Secondly, as the main corn producing area in China, farmers in the northeast are very sensitive to fluctuations. Farmers in the Northeast are very concerned about the changes in agricultural products, and their grain sales rhythm and expectations will also be affected by the influence of social and network information. In the agricultural product sales season, farmers are more dominant, but after the spring ploughing season, the role of drying towers and merchants becomes more important. As a result, the volatility of corn in the Northeast is influenced not only by farmers, but also by other major players.
In addition, there is some speculation about the so-called increase in reserves. After the Spring Festival, there may be a large amount of grain reserves in the market, but this is not directly related to **. Increasing reserves is just another big trader in the market, and there is no need for excessive and tireless speculation. At the same time, the task of increasing reserves requires high quality grain, if the inventory of grain in a region is not qualified, the merchant can increase the purchase to complete the task, but this can not be higher than the level of the entire market.
In addition, the dryer tower and the first business are cautious about the acquisition this year, and the change in sentiment may trigger a change in the momentum. Although the grassroots acquisition situation was more active in the previous year, it has dropped significantly compared to three years ago, and their willingness to acquire will be limited by the fluctuation of port and deep processing acquisitions**. If the purchase of deep processing increases, their willingness to buy will increase, but it is unknown whether deep processing can be sustainable and stable. Grassroots grain merchants mainly buy tide grain before the Spring Festival, mainly waiting for the temperature to rise before ***, in order to obtain higher profits. But how much profit can they make? This is an unknown, market demand and inventory must be taken into account.
Finally, the influence of sentiment is also an important factor driving the corn market. Whether it's a drying tower, a merchant or a farmer, they want corn to be higher. However, market behavior should not be based solely on changes in sentiment, but should return to supply and demand and actual demand. The change should be based on the change in market demand, not just the change in mood. The market demand has not changed much, and the surplus at the grassroots level cannot be ignored, so the price increase should be based on the actual situation and the relationship between supply and demand.
In conclusion, the rise and fall of corn ** is related to a variety of factors. Despite the speculative and emotional factors in the market, changes must be based on supply and demand and actual demand. Farmers, dryers and merchants play different roles in the market, and they have different expectations. Therefore, when analyzing market movements, it is essential to consider various factors such as supply and demand, production, inventory, demand, and market sentiment. In addition, the impact of climatic and seasonal factors on crops** cannot be ignored. Only by taking these factors into account can we make a more accurate judgment on the trend of corn.