Prcbroker's exclusive financial report highlights guide:
Since the end of 2023, the Australian dollar has been **4 against the US dollar6, NZD**36. The depreciation of the Australian dollar is particularly pronounced.
Amid the sluggish pace of economic recovery, it is worth keeping an eye on whether the current depreciation of the Australian dollar and the appreciation of the New Zealand dollar will reverse, and it is worth keeping an eye on the indicators released in March.
The US Federal Reserve (FRB) has weakened its wait-and-see view of an early rate cut, with the dollar index up about 26, in contrast, AUDUSD**46, NZD/USD**36 (as of December 29, 2023**) Judging from the reflection of the start time of interest rate cuts in the short** coin market, the probability of a rate cut by FRB in June is slightly higher than 60, and the probability of a rate cut in July is more than 80, and the degree of delay since the end of last year is obvious. On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has a rate cut probability of just over 60 in August and a little more than 70 in September, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has a rate cut probability of just under 40 in October and 100 in November.
Yesterday's release of Australia's consumer price index (CPI) for January showed a two-year low growth, and market expectations for further interest rate hikes have weakened. Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left its policy rate unchanged at yesterday's MPC meeting, it lowered its expected final point of arrival on the policy rate due to the balance of inflation risks. Although the RBNZ governor said in a radio interview this morning that he is sure that inflation will return to the target range (1-3) by the second half of 2024 and the median (2.) by 20250 ) nearby, but his views on the tightening of the stance seem to have weakened compared to before. With the improvement in employment in both countries constrained, there will be more focus on inflation indicators after the January-March quarter.
The slower pace of economic recovery in Australia and New Zealand is also one of the reasons for the strengthening of the trend in the Australian and New Zealand dollars**. Signs of a slowdown in personal consumption growth, such as lower retail sales in both countries, are expected to slow down in real GDP for the October-December quarter of last year due to Australia on March 6 and New Zealand on March 21. Australian Treasurer Chalmers warned in the Australian Newspaper this morning that GDP for the October-December quarter of last year, which will be released next week, will be very weak. Australian Dollar The New Zealand dollar reached a nine-month low on the 22nd,** to 105 NZD The second half of the Australian dollar, but at 107 New Zealand Dollar With the technical support of the Australian dollar, the Australian dollar is expected to bottom out.