After several years of weakness in the global economy, the concept of "business cycles" has come into the spotlight more and more frequently. From the prosperity of the past to the cold winter of today, many people have deeply felt the changes in the cold and warm, and the feeling of the cycle has become more and more intense. However, economic cycles, like human destiny, are often full of confusing factors and are even ignored by most people. The success of the coal boss depends not only on personal wisdom and hard work, but also on the opportunities brought by the right time and place. According to the Kondratiev cycle, the boom in commodity markets provides an opportunity for coal bosses to get rich. This is like the opportunity in life, which always comes inadvertently, the key is whether we can grasp it keenly and grasp it. Cycles, like an invisible force, permeate all areas. It affects the rise and fall of industries, such as textiles, infrastructure, electrical, heavy chemicals, consumer durables, and information industries. The prosperity period of an industry usually does not exceed 20 years, which is not only the constraint of the cycle, but also the embodiment of the law of the market. 
The development of a company, like the growth of life, is also affected by the cycle. The top companies stand tall not only because of their competitive advantage in the industry, but also because of their ability to grow counter-cyclically. The success of companies such as Microsoft, IBM, and Huawei stems from their deep understanding and response to cycles. Not only do they compete within the industry, but they see the cycle as their worst enemy, moving steadily in an unpredictable market. The cycle is like an invisible conductor, waving the baton, guiding the ups and downs of the industry and the fate of the company. It is everywhere, both a law and a force. It drives the development of the industry and affects the fate of the company. Only by deeply understanding and responding to the cycle can we ride the wave of the economy, meet the challenges and achieve sustainable development. For individuals, getting rich is also inseparable from the influence of cycles. Life is like a compo cycle, from adulthood to old age, there will always be economic upswings, booms, recessions, and depressions. Theoretically, there are three great opportunities in a person's life, and as long as you seize one of them, it is possible to enter the middle class. If you don't catch it once, you may miss out on the growth of your wealth. The late "Cycle King" Zhou Jintao once famously said: "Life and wealth depend on Kangbo". 
Therefore, both companies and individuals need to deeply understand and deal with the impact of cycles. Only in this way can we gain a foothold in the tide of the economy, meet the challenges and achieve sustainable development. So, let's study the cycle together, understand the cycle, and grasp the cycle, so as to be more calm and successful on the road of life. We are all on the big stage of society, everyone is an actor in this complex system, and our successes and setbacks are closely linked to the social drama. When we grasp the rules of the play, whether it is shining in the center of the stage or working silently in the corner, we can understand ourselves more clearly and avoid excessive expansion or sinking. In addition to the accumulation of wealth, a more important lesson is to know yourself. On the vast arena of the real world, top companies, successful people, and ordinary people whose wealth is growing rapidly all have one thing in common: they are good at harnessing the power of cycles. As described by Liang Ning, a well-known product person, enterprises can be divided into four types: reckless, waist, head and top. Reckless companies emerge as a chance, but they are often as short-lived as meteors; The waist enterprise is like a big tree in the forest, firmly occupying an ecological niche; The head enterprise, like the eagle on the top of the mountain, although it is alone, but the road to the top is often accompanied by the end of a big war. Those giants who stand at the pinnacle of business, such as Alibaba, Tencent, LONGi Green Energy, BYD, Huawei, Microsoft, IBM, etc., are not only facing competition from other companies, but also ruthless business cycles like huge waves, threatening their position at all times. However, they are like ancient trees that have experienced the baptism of wind and rain, and the years have not only left traces on them, but also endowed them with unique survival wisdom. They not only stand tall in the torrent of history, but also find new growth points and glow with new vitality in every cycle of transformation. Once these companies reach the pinnacle of business, they are not satisfied with this, and they have already set their sights on the future. They are like brave navigators, defying the winds and waves ahead, constantly evolving and innovating, just to explore the unknown new continent of commerce. Huawei, for example, started as a communications equipment manufacturer and has gradually transformed into a global technology leader in ICT infrastructure, digital energy, cloud computing, smart car solutions, mobile phones, computers, and other devices. This may seem like a huge change, but in fact, Huawei has always adhered to the core field of information hub, and has finally achieved a magnificent transformation from quantitative to qualitative change. In these times of change, each of us can learn valuable lessons from these top businesses and successful people. Only when we have an in-depth understanding of the laws of social operation and are good at using the power of cycles can we shine on the stage of life and become a real leader. Huawei has many competitors, from Alcatel, Lucent, Nortel, Cisco, Nokia, to today's Samsung, Apple and other technology giants. This phenomenon is also evident behind the top successful people, whose achievements are closely related to the rhythm of the cycle. There's a book called Outliers that counts the list of the 75 richest people in human history, including historical kings, pharaohs, and contemporary billionaires like Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, and others. Surprisingly, 20% of them were born in the United States between 1831-1840. The intensity of this concentration is staggering, revealing the great opportunities that existed in that particular era. It was a time when people were in the prime of life and were full of creativity, and the end of the American Civil War provided them with a golden opportunity. The collapse of the old order paved the way for the rise of the new order, creating countless opportunities for wealth for that generation. They are like surfers standing on the top of huge waves, firmly grasping the pulse of the times and creating their own glory. Like surfers standing on the top of huge waves, they have grasped the pulse of history and become the brightest stars in human history. 
Today, Huawei is facing the test of cycles. However, like the successful people in history, they deeply understand the power of the cycle and are ready to cross it with a more determined pace and write their own glorious chapter. Subsequently, industrial production in the United States developed rapidly, infrastructure construction was in full swing, and the financial industry on Wall Street began to rise. At this stage of world history, it is often mentioned that the Second Industrial Revolution, which began in the late 19th century, shifted its industrial center from Britain to the United States and Germany. From the 70s, the United States became the world center of the development of the machine industry at that time. In such a bull cycle, Rockefeller, Carnegie, Jp.Morgan and a group of others stood out. If you are born too early, you will be older, and your thinking pattern will be stuck before the Civil War; If you are born too late, you will be too young to seize the great opportunities of the times. Therefore, it is those who were born in those 10 years who are able to seize the opportunity. The list goes on and on. For example, the second peak of wealth creation in the United States was from the late 50s to the early 70s of the last century, and Jobs, Bill Gates, Bill Joy, Michael Dell, Larry Page and others also coincided with the upward cycle of the information revolution when they were in the prime of life. China has also experienced three waves of wealth creation, with many ordinary people quickly accumulating wealth. The first is to take advantage of the information gap between the old and new systems to get rich. At the end of the 80s, there were a lot of "fallen masters". The pinnacle of this fortune was when Mu Zhong bought a Tu-154 aircraft from Russia and sold it to Sichuan Airlines, claiming to have made a profit of at least 80 million because of his poor information. The second chance to get rich is to "go to the sea", which requires guts and poor information. The rise of township enterprises, the opening up of the country, and the development of foreign countries all contain huge opportunities. is like Po in "Flowers", who engages in foreign trade with his left hand and plays ** with his right hand. The third wave occurs when major industries are in a cycle of upswing and prosperity, bringing industrial prosperity. For example, the rise of manufacturing after China became the "factory of the world", the rise of real estate, the popularization of the Internet, etc. It can be said that every industrial cycle, policy cycle, market cycle, credit cycle, etc. rises and falls like a tide. Enterprises and individuals who stand at the forefront of the tide lead the industry and accumulate huge wealth. However, except for a few lucky people, the cycle brings a sense of loss to more people, and even many businesses fail in the cycle change, and many people suffer huge losses in the downward cycle. When we look back, we see that all cycles are clearly visible. But looking back at a distant point in time, our exclamation is almost always "If only I had ...... then."That's it
The Mystery of the Business Cycle.
The economic cycle refers to the phenomenon of alternating expansion and contraction in economic activity. A severe contraction can lead to an economic depression or even a crisis. Nearly 300 years after the Industrial Revolution, the economy grew dramatically, while for thousands of years before that, humanity mostly struggled with poverty and hunger.
Although the economies of various countries may regress due to plagues, wars, etc., this regression is irregular. However, cycles in the modern economy are common and regular.
Economists have come up with various theories about this phenomenon, but there is no consensus yet. There are two main schools of thought: those who are inherently defective and those who are externally intervening.
Intrinsically defective schools believe that the economic cycle is an intrinsic characteristic of a market economy, stemming from its inherent defects. For example, Marx believed that the crisis was due to overproduction, while Keynes believed that it was a lack of demand. Their solutions are a planned economy and ** intervention in the market to iron out the cycle.
External interventionists, on the other hand, argue that a free market economy does not produce a general boom-bust cycle by itself, but is subject to external intervention such as **. For example, bank credit expansion led to a false boom and a subsequent recessionary crisis. This faction advocates non-intervention in the market and follows the principle of laissez-faire.
In practice, these methods do not completely eliminate the economic cycle. Joseph Schumpeter's theory of "creative destruction" is more in line with empirical observation and has been widely accepted. He believes that the economic cycle is the result of innovation and change.
Why haven't we learned from the cycle? This is a question that deserves further delvement and may require further research and reflection.
Schumpeter believed that the main reason for the cyclical fluctuations in the economy is the innovation of production technology and the change of production methods, that is, innovation.
The "creative destruction" theory states that innovation and entrepreneurship are critical to the economic cycle. During the boom period, innovation drove demand for credit and means of production, new factories and equipment increased, and demand for consumer goods rose. But excessive exuberance has decoupled investment, credit, and innovation, serving only ordinary businesses and speculation.
During the recession period, the prosperity ends, and prices fall, which is in line with the idea of "the extreme of things must be opposed" in Chinese Taoist culture, and is the embodiment of the natural cycle.
In a depression, the driving force of innovation is weakened, and speculation and normal activities are affected. During the recovery period, low interest rates promoted new investment, enterprises resumed production, and employment increased, reaching a new equilibrium. Prosperity requires the "innovation storm" of new entrepreneurs and revolutionary productivity.
Real-world business activity echoes the four stages of the business cycle. Schumpeter argues that innovation is the fundamental driver of economic growth and volatility, but innovation varies greatly from size to size, and therefore to impact. He selected three representative cycles from previous studies, the Kondratiev cycle (more than 50 years), the Jugra cycle (9-10 years), and the Kitchin cycle (40 months).
Any one cycle is associated with a specific "innovation" activity. For example, the long cycle of the Kondratiev cycle corresponds to major innovations in the industry. As Jacob van Duin describes in The Fluctuation of Innovation Over Time, every major innovation basically takes 50-60 years from the beginning of a boom to the completion of a cycle, which is similar to the Kondratiev cycle.
Data**: Jacob van Doin, "The Fluctuation of Innovation over Time".
In Schumpeter's theory, each long cycle consists of 6 medium cycles and 18 short cycles, and it is in this cycle that modern economic growth is achieved.
In the process of the business cycle driven by the innovation of entrepreneurs, modern economic growth has evolved along the path of "creative destruction", destroying the industrial and consumption patterns of the past and shifting to a new economic growth model.
The economic cycle has a law to follow, but the vast majority of companies still die from cycle switching, and many individuals also suffer heavy losses due to the downward trend of the cycle, because the economic cycle is essentially a reflection of human nature. On the one hand, people make the same mistakes all the time, but each time different people make mistakes to varying degrees in different departments. On the other hand, each generation can only benefit from its own experience, and people will learn from their own experience and will not repeat the same mistakes in subsequent economic cycles. However, not everyone who went through the last economic cycle will wait until the next one comes.
In addition, companies have a relatively short lifespan and are unable to accumulate sufficient experience in economic cycles to improve their business strategies. For example, the average life expectancy of small and medium-sized enterprises in China is only 37 years, the average life expectancy of small and medium-sized enterprises in the United States and Japan is 10 years and 12 years respectively5 years. Even some well-known businesses such as Motorola, American Express, HP, IBM, etc., have been in decline over the past few decades.
As a result, investors, business managers, and market participants are unable to recognize the characteristics of cyclical patterns that occur repeatedly, and they are unable to learn from history, which leads to an inability to respond to changes in economic cycles.
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Of course, Drucker ultimately believes that the real security of enterprises is the future manager or the entrepreneur.
Because entrepreneurs who can lead enterprises through the cycle are the most scarce resource, one of the major tasks of entrepreneurs is to resolve uncertainty - using will, innovation, experience, emotion, etc., including the cognition and strategy of the essence of things, to provide everyone with "out of nothing" or "out of nothing" products, such as Steve Jobs used Apple to create the era of smartphones.
Entrepreneurs resolve uncertainty and create products, profits, and company structures, where workers work and get a certain return, which is salary.
For individuals, investment methods such as Merrill Lynch Investment Clock provide investment allocation strategies at various stages of the economic cycle, and many classic books by investment experts also describe the experience of investing in various economic cycles, so as not to mislead here.
But it is easy to acquire knowledge, but it is the hardest to hone one's mindset. We need to maintain due attention and awe to the economic cycle, because we are not isolated individuals, always operating in the social system, many opportunities and frustrations are actually brought by the social system, grasp the laws of operation, whether it is bullish or hard, can have a clearer understanding of self, will not float too high and fall too deep.