On July 9, 1971, Kissinger led a U.S. delegation from Pakistan to Beijing in secret. This was followed by a global sensational visit to China, laying the foundation for the normalization of Sino-US relations.
On February 6, 2024, the famous American host Carlson arrived in Russia and successfully interviewed Russian ** Putin. to the whole world,In particular, it is like the Western world telling Russia's thoughts, and for the first time, Western people can see the Russia-Ukraine conflict from another perspective.
It can be said that Carlson's interview with Putin is deliberately imitating Kissinger's visit to China. At that time, the United States faced the Soviet Union, which attacked stronglyKissinger put forward the strategy of uniting China, and in the end, in the friendly environment between China and the United States, the Soviet Union was unable to stand alone in the Cold War.
Now in 2024, many people can't help but have such a thought:So why doesn't the United States unite with Russia against China?
In fact, back in the days when Trump won his first campaignKissinger told him that he could join forces with Russia to resist China, but the Russian side did not believe it at all.
It's already 2024, and this thing is one after anotherShadowsNone of them,On the contrary, it is an unprecedented deterioration in relations between the United States and Russia.
In the Carlson interview that happened earlier this year, the host was clearly here to pave the way for the Republican Party and Trump, after all, Trump has said it many timesAs long as he comes to power, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can be ended in one day.
It is obvious that it is a strong overture to Russia, and many of our friends in the country are worried about this issue:Will Russia stab us in the back and turn to the West? ”
But today I want to tell you all,The U.S. strategy of uniting Russia to resist China is, fundamentally speaking, a joke.
I respect Kissinger, but after all, he is also a patriot of the United States, and his first element is to love the United States, so the strategy he proposed to unite with Russia and resist China is very unfriendly to us.
But I can be honest, Kissinger is old after all, there is no forever sharp strategist in this world, and everyone has the limitations of the times.
The one who is really sober in this matter is BidenThe United States absolutely cannot unite with Russia, and once it makes such a move, it will be a strategic suicide of the United States.
Let's start with the map.
The entire Eurasian continent is like a super island, and this island has Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia, and so on.
Once these regions were connected into a large economy, the United States, which was isolated from abroad, was completely marginalizedTherefore, the strategy of the United States is to prevent the economic integration of the Eurasian continent, this cliché, I believe everyone has heard.
But there is one thing that is being used by many peopleIgnoreTarget.
What is at the heart of preventing economic integration in Eurasia? The core is to put the Eurasian continent"Bridge".Give it to smash.
So who is from the Asian continent"Bridge".
In total, there areThreebridges.
One is the US-controlled shipping arteries, referring to the map below, the world's shipping arteries are covered by the U.S.'s global naval base control.
One is the well-known Middle East, which is the necessary land route connecting the East and the West.
And there is another area that is often overlooked by the public, that is, Russia and Central Asia, that isFormer Soviet Union.
Let's look at the former Soviet Union.
First of allFive Central Asian countriesIf you go west, you can connect Europe, go down to the Middle East or South Asia, and go east to China.
And then we look at Russia, the whole country of Russia is very long. Such a long country is simply born to be a passage.
As long as Russia and China have deep economic cooperation, and as long as Eastern Europe does not go to war. You'll find it just as far as you depart from Northeast ChinaThen we will build a railway, and the railway will pass through the entire territory of Russia, and it will basically be able to go directly to the European Union, so that the Eurasian continent will be connected.
Only when you understand this can you understand why it is impossible for the United States to unite with Russia.
Among the three major passages, although the United States' sea power is currently being challenged, generally speaking, the US military is still stationing troops in so many countries in the Middle EastSo sea freight is still in the hands of the United States.
Then look at the land passage to the Middle East, after so many years of hard work, the United States has broken the Middle East to pieces. Although our country has succeeded in facilitating the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement,But it will not be a short time to reconnect the entire Middle East.
Only this passage bridge between Russia and Central Asia - the former Soviet Union isReady-madeThis is the hegemonVent.
After you understand these things, you can understand why the United States must not be able toUnited Russia to resist China.
At the beginning, the United States gave us a lot of advantages in order to unite with us to contain the Soviet Union. For example, investment and technology from the United States, as well as the successful implementation of reform and opening up, have allowed us to undertake a large amount of Western production capacity.
If the United States wants to win over Russia, does he want to give it to Russia?Benefits:This? That's definitely a must.
We now analyze from Russia's point of view, and from the perspective of its national interests, the minimum condition is that whoever gives the most benefits should be closer to whomever it is better.
Let's start with a set of data.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2023, the amount of China and Russia will reach2401.$100 million, growth！The 2024 target was achieved ahead of schedule.
In the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia is blocked by all Western developed countries, and at the same time, some developing countries do not approve of Russia's territorial expansion and choose to avoid it. Under such circumstances, China is willing to maintain normal economic and trade exchanges with RussiaIt is the great goodwill that has been given to Russia.
China-Russia ** reached 2401$100 million, do you know how staggering that number is? In comparison, for the whole year of 2023, the amount of China and the United States will be 6644$5.1 billion.
That is to say, in 2023 - the amount of China and Russia will be about the same as that of China and the United StatesMore than 1 3 of the Chinese and American **!
That's an astonishing rate of development! This is also the embodiment of our country's foresight. After all, in international relations, although emotions are important, they often cannot withstand the test of national interests. Only by thoroughly putting the interests together can this be a real "overall situation".
This also fully illustrates the fact that our country has not participated in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict at all, but the Russian friend can survive to this day, and he must thank us"Neutral".
From a rational point of view, if the United States wants to win over Russia, he will give it to RussiaEconomic dividendsThe intensity must at least exceed the level of China and Russia, right?
But the economy of Russia and the economy of the United States are, actuallyConflictsTarget.
The structure of today's U.S. economy has changed, from a manufacturing country to a financial country (retaining some high-tech industries), and at the same timeResourceswithAgricultural productsA big country in exports.
There is serious competition between the two sides in the area of resources and agricultural products.
Taking ** as an example, the following is a comparison of US exports to Europe**:
U.S. exports to Europe in December 2021 (before Russia's invasion of Ukraine) were: 1.09 million b/d.
U.S. exports to Europe in December 2022 (during the Russia-Ukraine conflict) were: 1.69 million b/d.
From December 2021 to December 2022, U.S. exports to Europe rose approximately！This is a very staggering statistic.
And where did these new market shares gained by the United States come from? Answer:Snatched from RussiaOriginally, Russia was one of the largest energy suppliers in Europe.
Eurostat data shows that after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States is replacing Russia as an important oil base in Europe.
In 2021, the EU's oil imports came mainly from Russia (24.).8%）, followed by Norway (accounting for 9.).4%) and the United States (8.).9%）。
But by the third quarter of 2022, the share of Russia's oil imports fell to 144%，And the share of the United States has risen to 119%, surpassing Norway and becoming the second largest oil country in the European Union.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict was indeed launched during the Democratic Party of the United States, but this does not mean that the financiers behind the Republican Party have not benefited.
The Republican Party in the United States has mainly engaged in the military industry, energy, real estate, agricultural products, and manufacturing.
Whether it is the new energy market or a large amount of ** demand, some of the Republican Party's main industries have benefited a lot.
So while many Republicans oppose the war on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it doesn't mean that all Republican fundamentals are damaged.
And in comparison:
China is an industrial country, Russia is a resource country, and not only do we not compete, but we complement each other perfectly.
Take the new energy industry as an example.
According to statistics, in 2023, the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach respectively958.70,000 and 94950,000 units, an increase of more than 30% over last year.
Moreover, China also occupies more than one place in the global new energy vehicle market60% share, maintaining the world's No. 1 position for 9 consecutive years.
In addition, we also exported120.30,000 new energy vehicles, an increase of 77 percent year-on-year2%, an all-time high.
The huge new energy industry means:Huge demand for ore resources, which is a huge benefit for a resource country like Russia.
The land area of Russia as a state is about 1709820,000 square kilometers, accounting for 11Forty-six percent of the mega countries are extremely rich in mineral resources.
Here are a few examples:Russia has the 10th largest lithium reserves in the world. Russia is also one of the world's largest nickel producers, behind Indonesia and the Philippines, and accounts for about 10% of global nickel demand.
More importantly, due to the lack of development of Russia's own exploration technology, many of its resource reserves have not been explored clearly, so there are still many unknown surprises in this regard.
For China and Russia, it is simply a one-time cooperation.
In this case, the United States says that it wants to pry Russia, and I can only say that you, the United States, be carefulThe bones were broken.
A person to do something is always two drivesEarningswithStress。We have already calculated the benefits, and the United States today is a weak United States, and as of the beginning of 2024, the United States is already in debt of $34 trillion.
Now it is the United States itself short of money on the one hand, and the industrial structure of the two sides on the other hand. As a result, the United States has not been able to divert much economic benefit to Russia.
The only place that can be moved is to let the Russian-Ukrainian conflict ceasefireReduce the pressure on Russiato satisfy his territorial claims, and at the same time loosen relations between Russia and Europe, so that Russia can sell resources to Europe again.
But that's not inherently good, and a lot of it isWhat Russia had at first, then the United States snatched the share.
And to do that,It means that the energy giants in the United States have to spit out the market, a ceasefire means that the military-industrial complex can no longer make money, both of which are not insignificant.
Not to mention that these two things are not profitable for Russia, they just make up for losses, and justIt is possible to make up for the loss.
According to the strategy of Trump and Kissinger, after all this is done, Russia's vitality will be restored, and after Russia has benefited, the United States can pull him together to jointly target us.
But this logical chain simply does not hold.
The United States has been targeting Russia for a long time, and Russia cannot vote for the West if it wants to. But why is there now a voice in the United States that is getting closer to Russia? Isn't it because of the existence of a powerful China?!
In other words, a strong China is Russia's living space"Value".
Only if China continues to be strong, then the United States will feel that it is very difficult to target, and the United States will think of whether to win over Russia? Give Russia a little respite.
It's not like that, it's good to benefit Russia.
After that, the benefits of Huizhi will be gone.
I think Russia still understands this point, so the United States is trying to win over Russia, and the final result may be:Russia wants to eat the "sugar-coated" given by the United States, but the "shells" that the United States wants may not be able to see it.
So why is Russia still more pro-Trump? The two sides are simply flattering each other.
In fact, this logic is also very easy to understand.
The current global anti-hegemony pattern is:
Maozi was more reckless, and as soon as his brain was hot, Ulla rushed and put himself on the front line.
On the Middle East side, Iran is not attacking, and it is no problem for the little brother to do things, but he is unwilling to end up in person, and he does not have much principal in his hand, so he is cautious and fixed-investment.
On the Asian side, the mysterious East is continuing its strength, further accelerating industrial upgrading, and striving to achieve a comprehensive breakthrough as soon as possible.
But don't get me wrongIn fact, the mysterious East is the main battlefield. Don't think that only a hot war is a war, and a financial war is far more "bayonet-like" than a hot war!
But from Russia's point of view, they are certainly hopefulThe eastern top is at the front, he can change positions with us, and he will go to the back to Taoguang to recuperate.
That's why the interview with Carlson, and Trump's winks — some calls.
To put it bluntly, it's not just that China and the United States are tired, there will be times when they want to take an intermission. Russia and the United States have the same kind of game mentality.
The great man has a saying that says it wellDivide everything clearly, the main contradiction and the secondary contradiction.
Russia and the United States are structural contradictionsRussia is the public enemy of Europe shaped by the United States and a tool for the United States to control Europe. The prohibition of Russia-EU alliance is also an important strategy of the United States to prevent the integration of the Eurasian continent.
And who wants to put whom in front? Give yourself some space to take a break, it's all a small idea.
Carlson's interview, Trump's winks — these don't impress Russia. Just kidding, you Trump want to "bribe" Russia with this little benefit? What cadre can't stand such a test?!
Unless Trump is ruthless throughoutWithdraw from NATO with the United States, then it is estimated that Russia is really likely to be tempted.
But if Trump dares to do so, then he has to be careful not to become:Kennedy sat in the open and had a big brain. The old ** made a speech and was full of joy.