After two years of Russia-Ukraine conflict, the process has been tortuous and bumpy, although Russia has maintained calm and order on the surface, it seems that it has not been greatly affected, for example, Putin** recently signed a decree to restore the Moscow Military District and the Leningrad Military District, and to merge Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblast into the jurisdiction of the Southern Military District. However, the Russian side has also experienced a lot of tense moments during this period, especially at the beginning of 2023, when the situation on the battlefield was at a stalemate, but fortunately, the decisive actions of the "Wagner" group won valuable breathing space for the Russian army.
At that time, because the front-line strength of the Russian army was in the most tense state, the partially mobilized 300,000 people had not yet been fully replenished to the front line, and the Ukrainian army had gathered heavy troops to launch an offensive, and the pressure on the front line increased sharply, almost relying on the "Wagner" mercenaries, especially the stubborn resistance of the troops composed of prisoners, which not only stabilized the defensive line, but also successfully achieved local advances, otherwise the direction of the war may be very different. During this period, the "Wagner" group did show extraordinary combat effectiveness and strategic influence.
Now, as the Russian army seized the initiative in the war after seizing the city of Avdeyevka, its overall situation has improved significantly from the beginning of the year. According to the news on February 26, the Russian army is planning a large-scale counterattack on the southern front, and about 100,000 troops have been assembled in the direction of Crimea. In this regard, Putin needs to be prepared for the worst-case scenario, that is, a possible head-on conflict with NATO, and the deployment of 100,000 troops is aimed at building a tactical advantage and forming an encirclement of the enemy.
The core problem facing the Ukrainian army at present is the serious shortage of soldiers. The two-year conflict is essentially an indirect confrontation between NATO and Russia, with NATO providing funds and equipment, and Ukraine providing fighters, making Russia face unprecedented challenges. However, after two years of protracted warfare, NATO's resources have been greatly depleted, and Russia, through a series of adjustment and reconstruction measures, has not only improved its front-line combat effectiveness, but also strengthened its military production and logistics support capabilities in the rear.
On the other hand, the West has long tried to create the image of Russia alone, but in fact, Russia has also received support from several countries and civil society. As the situation evolves, more and more facts that have not been reported by the West have gradually surfaced, and citizens of many countries have voluntarily gone to Russia to participate in the war, including even some countries that are considered anti-Russian. It can be seen that Russia is not alone, and its external support forces are increasingly emerging.
In the related report on February 24, we can learn that on the front line in Ukraine, there are some Japanese volunteers who work for Russia, they are affiliated with an organization called the "Coalition International Brigade", which is mainly responsible for battlefield medical relief work.
Previously, Japanese mercenaries also joined the Ukrainian army in the war. This phenomenon is interesting because it shows that some Japanese are contributing on both sides of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, some are participating in the fight against Russia as mercenaries, and some Japanese are helping the Russian army as volunteers.
This phenomenon is not unique, and similar situations have occurred in other European countries, further demonstrating that Russia's international support is not lacking.
With the drastic changes in the tide of the war, NATO is feeling the pressure. After the major victory of the Russian army in Avdeyevka, NATO urgently took two drastic measures. The first is that Germany has taken extraordinary actions to support Ukraine, Germany** pointed out on February 26** that Germany** is looking for military aid materials around the world, including secret negotiations with India to purchase more than 100,000 155mm artillery shells for Ukraine. Although this move reflects Germany's eagerness to assist the Ukrainian side, it is still a drop in the bucket for the huge consumption of artillery shells by the Ukrainian army every week.
Secondly, the French side is considering supplying Ukraine with Mirage-2000 fighters. Ukraine** Zelensky has publicly revealed that it is negotiating with France on the introduction of Mirage-2000 fighter jets, and is expected to receive the first batch of 13 such fighters. Although French officials have not yet confirmed this, they are indeed training Ukrainian pilots.
Although Ukraine has long been eager to obtain American-made F-16 fighter jets, it has only received aid commitments, and the delivery date is still pending, which has become a problem that has lasted for nearly two years, and even if these fighters finally arrive in Ukraine, it may be difficult to offset the huge losses on the battlefield, at most it can only cause some trouble to Russia, and cannot fundamentally turn the tide of the war.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been going on for two years, and both sides have paid a heavy price, especially Ukraine. Zelensky declared on February 25 that there had been 310,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the war, but the veracity of this statement has been questioned, and Russian *** spokeswoman Zakharova bluntly accused Zelensky of lying, saying that the actual number of killed is much higher than what he said.
According to reports, the Ukrainian army suffered heavy losses in the battle of Avdeyevka, withdrawing only the remaining strength of 5 brigades, losing at least 7 full brigades, and speculating that the number of killed is well over 300,000, plus the wounded, captured and missing, the overall losses may exceed one million. At present, the proportion of elderly people and women in the Ukrainian army is gradually increasing, and the combat effectiveness is seriously weakened, and Zelensky must face this cruel reality.
With the sharp decline in the strength of the Ukrainian army, the Russian army is about to start a new round of territorial competition. In eastern Ukraine, the Russian army is at least aiming to occupy Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, and whether it will advance further will depend on Putin's strategic intentions. With the gradual decline of the Ukrainian army, the offensive of the Russian army will be smoother, which seems to indicate that the final chapter of the war is about to be staged.