Recently, the rebar market has shown a trend of supply and demand double decline. From the point of view, the operating rate of blast furnaces is still at a relatively high level, and the pressure on the raw material end will increase. At the same time, the maintenance loss of hot-rolled coils, a mainstream product, has been reduced, resulting in the expected performance of the first increment, thereby inhibiting the upward movement of steel.
From the demand side, the transaction demand of market intermediaries and the rigid demand generated by the change of terminal orders need to be considered. In the context of the overall capital cost this year, it is more difficult for the first business to make a profit, and the market inventory risk has always existed. The stable production of automobiles and home appliances has diverted part of the steel demand, (here we can focus on the content of the next two sessions), while the real estate demand and infrastructure demand are still weak in the short term.
The bidding price of leading manufacturers has risen more, and the leading enterprises' guide prices represent the future direction of steel varieties, especially plate varieties. Through the correlation verification of historical data, it is found that the direction and magnitude of the guide price adjustment are more important for the impact of **.
In terms of inventory, the social inventory has been accumulated for 12 consecutive periods, and the total inventory has been accumulated for 14 consecutive periods, and the inventory growth has slowed down. On the demand side, the apparent consumption of threads increased month-on-month this week, and the demand rebounded for two consecutive periods after falling back for six consecutive periods.
On the whole, the rebar market is more in the stage of further game between expectations and demand. In March, the steel market is expected to fall first and then rise. Under the combined influence of the combination of supply and demand and supply and demand, the average price may move upward, such as the price of leading manufacturers, the change of inventory levels, the uneven macro indicators, and seasonal factors.
However, the market is not confident about the market outlook, and this lack comes from concerns about demand. At present, the start of housing construction and infrastructure projects, including the availability of funds, has improved seasonally from the previous month, but the year-on-year performance after the Lunar New Year is still unsatisfactory. The "two sessions" are about to be held, and the market pays more attention to the two sessions. On the one hand, it is expected that more powerful policies will be introduced, including "building a new model of real estate development" to make a clearer deployment, and the focus of the "three major projects" to build a new real estate model will be effective.
Look at the technical side of rebar, these days to do rebar long orders, even if there was no stop loss last week, today this fell below the support is also stopped loss, now pull back, do you still have the courage to do long? *So**, but anyone who wants to take a long-term friend has been shocked and vomited, and finally made a short, fell below the support, thought that he could take a little longer, but he didn't expect to be pulled back in minutes, isn't it like this? Isn't it grinding mentality? Is it long or short now?
Answer it, I focused on the black plate for two weeks, but why has it not moved, it just feels like it is not hot, staring at it for 30 minutes every day, 15 minutes of ** to see the long-term point, how is it possible? Now open the daily line, in fact, there is no big change, it is more **, there is no clear direction, this kind of ** is very easy to stop loss, profits are also very easy to take back, so you can only fast in and out, but when you get used to fast in and fast out, there is a direction behind, you will not be able to hold it, this is the main force to let you develop the habit, so that your pattern from large to small, and then from small to large, and the face of ** is often the same as your so-called pattern at that time, the best way is to firm one, continue. Do more ** that suits you, do less ** that is not suitable for you, some people will say how to judge whether it is suitable or not, it is very simple, whether it has earned more or lost more recently, it is clear at a glance.
As for the follow-up operation of rebar, I will observe **, pay attention to the opportunity to do long, of course, the general direction is still downward, this long order will not take too long, and it must also pave the way for short orders.
Personal advice, for reference only. over