The United States won the Cold War, and many countries, mainly Eastern Europe, turned to the Western political system and joined the world market economy system dominated by the United States. On the basis of the implementation of reform and opening up in 1978, China officially joined the World Organization in 2001. By virtue of its status as the sole superpower, the United States has unscrupulously promoted the Western system of democratic values and expanded its hegemony. Clinton first put forward the "strategy of participation and expansion," taking advantage of the generally favorable international situation of the United States after the Cold War, strengthening the intensity of US involvement in and participation in international and regional affairs, expanding the boundaries of the "free world," and establishing the "unique world leadership position" of the United States in the 21 st century.
Under the guidance of this strategy, between 1990 and 1997, the United States used troops abroad 42 times, an average of 5 times a year, an average of 2.2 times a year compared with the Cold War periodMore than double 8 times. From August 1998 to June 1999, in less than a year, the United States indiscriminately launched air strikes against Afghanistan, Sudan, Iraq, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and other sovereign countries, eventually dismembering the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The next Bush Jr. was even more arrogant, implementing unilateralist lines such as abandoning the "Kyoto Protocol" and withdrawing from the "Missile Treaty," launching a preemptive strategy and the "Axis" theory, and launching wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. These unscrupulous acts of hegemony have aroused strong resistance from other countries, prompted the internal contradictions of hegemony to erupt more and more, and made US hegemony move more and more toward its opposite, and become more and more declining.
The economic influence is relatively declining
Since the end of World War II, the United States has promoted the rapid economic growth of the countries concerned through the establishment of four major organizations, one aid to Western Europe, and three major industrial transfers. At the same time, due to the excessive generosity of gratuitous aid to Western European countries, the excessive greed for cheap products of low-end industry recipient countries, and the excessive caution of not letting go of the export of high-tech and products to low-end industry host countries, the US economic growth rate and surplus are lower than those supported by it. Therefore, in the context of the continuous growth of the global economic aggregate, the proportion of the United States in the world's GDP has generally shown a downward trend, from 56% at the end of World War II to 6 at the end of the Cold War (1991).16 trillion US dollars, accounting for 2592%；After that, it will move forward tepidly, sometimes fast, and sometimes slowly, and by 2021, the GDP will reach 23 trillion US dollars, accounting for only 23 percent of the world93%。During this period, although the total economic output of the United States has always ranked first in the world, due to the decrease in its relative proportion, the influence of the United States on the global economy will inevitably decline accordingly.
And as the world economy increases, even if the proportion of US GDP in the global total remains unchanged, the dependence of other countries on the US economy will decrease. To make a simple analogy, let's assume that the total world economic output (GDP) in a certain period is only 100 yuan, and this 100 yuan is only enough to guarantee the production activities of one TV production line; At this time, the United States accounted for 30% of the world's GDP - that is, 30 yuan, so the United States became the decisive force in the production line of televisions, and had 100% influence on the global production of televisions. When the total value of the world economy becomes 10,000 yuan, it is enough to guarantee 100 TV production lines; At this time, the United States still occupies 30% - that is, 3,000 yuan, which can only affect the production activities of 30 TV production lines, and the production activities of dozens of other TV production lines will not be affected by the United States. The U.S. influence on the global economy has fallen from 100 percent to 30 percent.
Compared with the decline in the proportion of the United States, the rise of wave after wave of emerging economies has greatly increased the total global GDP, while its share of the world's GDP is also rising. In 2018, the total GDP of China, Japan and South Korea reached 20$19 trillion (23.com of global GDP.)5%), more than the EU's 1876 trillion US dollars (21.com of the world.)8%), close to 20US$5 trillion (238%）。The share of the BRICS countries' GDP in the world rose from 16% in 2009 to 23% in 2017. China has become the biggest bright spot in developing countries and even the world economy, rapidly moving from a low-income country to an upper-middle-income country, and the proportion of GDP in the global economy has increased from 1 in 19788% grew to 18 in 20215%。
In 2021, China's total GDP has reached about 77% of that of the United States, putting more direct pressure on the United States' global economic leadership. The rise of emerging economies has led to the fact that the United States no longer enjoys the exclusive status of the international reserve currency, and the United States is no longer the absolute center of the world. The transition from the Bretton Woods system to the Jamaican system is a direct reflection and manifestation of this change. The countries have surpassed the United States and become economic zones that can operate independently from the United States. In particular, the European Union and East Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) can join forces to break free from US control over the global economy.
In fact, the most important indicator of the relative decline of the influence of the United States and even Western countries on the world economy is the transformation of global economic governance from the G7 to the G20. In November 1975, in order to jointly resolve the world economic and currency crisis, the six major industrial powers (the G-6) of France, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Italy held a summit to coordinate economic policies. At the second meeting, Canada participated, formally forming the Group of Seven (G7). The G7 has become an important symbol of Western countries' leadership in governing global issues. The outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in 1997 had a major impact on the world economy. In February of the following year, the Group of 22 (regional) countries, composed of the world's major developed countries and developing countries and regions, was established to discuss the resolution of the Asian financial crisis.
In 1999, the G7** meeting proposed the establishment of the G20 (G20) and held a meeting of the heads of countries and central banks to exchange views on the coordination of international financial and monetary policies, the reform of the international financial system, and the development of the world economy. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, the G20 was promoted to a leaders' summit at the initiative of the United States. The 2009 Pittsburgh Summit identified the G20 as the main forum for international economic cooperation. As the G20 includes developing countries such as China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey, the G20 marks the beginning of a shift in global economic governance from "Western governance" to "Western and non-Western governance".
At the 2016 G20 Hangzhou Summit, China, as the host, for the first time comprehensively expounded China's view of global economic governance in order to solve the problems plaguing the world economy, and put forward the proposition of jointly building an innovative, open, interconnected and inclusive world economy.
Excerpted from "Changing Situations, Seeking Festivals: A New Way to Win".