Biden and Trump have won back-to-back party primaries, leaving the other candidates less and less likely to win. On the Democratic side, Biden has few opponents. On the Republican side, only Haley is struggling to support it.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley lost the "home" South Carolina party primary, about 20 percentage points behind Trump. However, this did not change Haley's steadfastness in the campaign, and even the withdrawal of funds from the financiers did not dampen Haley's hopes of victory, as Trump was still saddled with criminal charges.
However, just the day before yesterday, the U.S. Supreme Court accepted the case of Trump's immunity, which makes criminal charges have to be refuted before they can proceed. On the one hand, it bought Trump campaign time, and on the other hand, it also made the officials not responsible for the results, which can be described as killing two birds with one stone. But Haley's hopes of victory are even slimmer.
* The outcome has fallen entirely between Biden and Trump. Recently, however, Biden's approval rating has been declining.
As can be seen from the figure, the issue of immigration has become the most concerned topic among voters. On the contrary, as the data continues to decline, fewer and fewer people are paying attention to the inflation problem. The reason why immigration can become a problem is because of the surge in the number of illegal immigrants. In the three years of Biden's administration, the number of illegal immigrants has soared to 2 million per year. You must know that the net immigrant population in 2023 will only be 4.5 million, of which illegal immigrants account for more than half, most of them at the U.S.-Mexico border.
The influx of migrants has caused social unrest, job competition and soaring rents, especially in the four states along the U.S.-Mexico border. The reason why the proportion of immigration concerns surged in February was that Texas was tough on Biden and criticized Biden**'s open-door policy for leading to border invasions. Trump seized the opportunity to put the fire on the fire, proposing that the governor of Texas exercise the state's right to self-defense. The issue of migration has become a key factor in determining the outcome.
Just yesterday, Biden and Trump traveled to the U.S.-Mexico border in Texas to argue about immigration policy, 300 miles apart. Trump said that because of "Biden's invasion", there are huge criminal, medical and language problems for the United States. It can be found that Trump is playing the straight card, blaming Biden for all the problems. Biden, on the other hand, said that instead of playing politics and campaigning on immigration, Trump should join him in supporting the border bill. In the face of the aggressiveness of his opponents, Biden did not dare to take it head-on, and could only adopt roundabout tactics, alluding to the fact that Trump was hindering the solution of the immigration problem. It's like your wife accuses you of forgetting to buy soy sauce, but you ask her not to break the family harmony by playing on the topic. To outsiders, Biden's justification cannot hide the record-breaking number of illegal immigrants, which is why Biden's approval rating continues to be sluggish.
But then again, if Trump does come to power and carry out an "unprecedented" deportation of migrants, will all problems be solved?
The reason why Singapore, New Zealand, Australia, Japan and Canada are all bringing in immigrants on a large scale in 2023 is that they hope to bring in labor through immigration policies to reduce overall price pressures. Once migrants are repatriated and low-cost labor is lost, the United States may experience a shortage of labor (e.g., agriculture) and a spike in (food) prices, just like Brexit.
In other words, once Trump comes to power, illegal immigration is under control, but inflation in the United States could spiral out of control.
Focus on the data today
18:00 Eurozone CPI YoY (Feb).
23:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (February)
The content of this article is provided by a third party. acy** makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the content herein; ACY shall not be liable for any loss of investment caused by the advice, or other information provided by third parties. The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice and does not relate to one's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. If you have any questions, please seek independent professional financial or tax advice.