According to the German news channel**March 4**, about the current state of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Austrian Army Colonel Markus Reisner was interviewed, in which he warned that the Russian army may be about to break through the defensive line. In the worst case, they could hit the Dnieper.
German Press Channel: Mr. Reisner, the Russians occupied several more small places last week. In the last year we have seen that the two sides usually win and lose each other, has the situation changed now?
Marcus Reisner: Last fall, the Russians went on the offensive again after a muddy period. What we are now seeing is the result of the second winter offensive, in which the Russian army is attacking on multiple fronts. The first notable result was the capture of Avdeyevka, which they are now trying to maintain.
Q: The Russians intensified their offensive against **?
A: They currently have 3 main directions. One is in the Kharkiv region, the second is in the Donetsk region, and the third is in the Zaporizhzhia region further south. There, the Russians are attacking near Lobodine and Orekhov, where the Ukrainians advanced last summer. It can be seen that the Russians tried with all their might to expand the occupied zone.
Q: Ukraine basically didn't hit the huge fortifications of the Russians in its summer offensive, so what about the other way around? Do the Russians face the same dilemma?
A: Yes, this is the problem that the Russian army is facing now. They must also break through the minefields first, as the Ukrainians did in the summer, and in the process be hit by heavy shelling and FPV drones. Only, the key difference is that the Ukrainians have much less ammunition than the Russians last summer and now. Therefore, they have difficulties in stopping the offensive of the Russian army.
Q: What are Russia's current tactics for?
A: It works, it does. The Russian army has the initiative. In key areas, they have been advancing, albeit only a few kilometers at a time.
On February 27, 2024 local time, the Russian armed forces carried out a mission on the front line in Ukraine. Visual China.
Q: Why aren't the Russians short of ammunition?
A: The Russians have significantly increased their production of ammunition over the past two years. It is estimated that between 3.5 million and 4 million people work in shifts at military-industrial enterprises. It is speculated that between 1.5 million and 3 million shells were produced last year. Let's not forget: in such a war, victory or defeat depends not on the morale of officers and soldiers or on the quality of individual ** systems, but on the amount of available military resources.
Q: What is the risk of a large-scale breakthrough for Russia?
A: The danger of a breakthrough of the Russian army is enormous. In the worst-case scenario, a single breakout could have a ripple effect. By that time, the advance of the Russian army could only be stopped on the banks of the Dnieper River, which divided the territory of Ukraine in two. In places such as Popasnaya, Soledar, **mut and Avdeyevka, the Russians have broken through the strongest first line of defense of the Ukrainians. The second and third lines of defense are not as strong. The question now is whether the Ukrainians can build something like the Surovikin line that the Russians used to stop them last summer.
Q: You said last week that you think it is possible for the Ukrainians to put Western F-16 fighter jets into battle. Do you see new evidence in this regard?
A: The Ukrainians shot down several planes in a short period of time, which is very interesting. Previously, we estimated that they actually ambushed the Russians. They deployed Western air defense systems such as the "Patriot" from the city to the front line for several days, shot down two or three planes, and then withdrew to the city. But it's time-consuming and laborious, and it only happens every two or three weeks. Now that so many planes have been shot down, it may indicate that other systems are in combat. But this is still pure speculation.
Q: Rodrich Kissewaite, a CDU foreign policy expert, said that Europe must stop petty in funding the war. Do you agree with him?
A: I agree 100%. From the outset, I warned against underestimating Russia, a country that has proven time and time again in history that even if it made fatal mistakes in the early stages of the war, it was able to adjust later. The West does not want to accept the fact that if we want to support Ukraine, we will have to drastically cut our own spending. The West is now in a daze, but people must realize that this is not going to work.
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