Since the holiday, the A** field has walked out of a wave of more than expected, which has made many investors come back to blood.
However, some investors lamented that "the Shanghai Composite Index is 3,000 points, but my account income is still 2,900 points."
According to ** statistics, since the loss on December 12 last year to February 29, 2024 for the first time, from the ** point of view, based on the Shanghai Index this round of "3000 to 3000"** statistics, since 202 only nearly 14% of ** recovered lost ground, 4 percent of the shares fell more than 20%. (Data**: Finance Associated Press).Why did the index earn, but the account holdings** did not keep up? Does it mean that this time, the **slow** is "inferior"? What's next?
Judging from the performance of the main core broad-based index of A-shares, this wave is mainly the repair of the blue-chip index, that is, the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300-based index. As far as the market as a whole is concerned, the situation has not completely recovered since the beginning of this year, and the mixed index of partial stocks has fallen by more than 3 points during the year.
Data **: wind, as of March 4, 2024).
With the large-scale support of long-term funds, since the end of last year, ** blue chip ETFs have received large-scale subscription and **, and the core assets represented by SSE 50 and CSI 300 have been quickly restored. However, with the interpretation of AI concepts, computing power, central state-owned enterprises and other themes, since the bottom of February 6, the small-cap index CSI 2000, Kechuang 100, and CSI 1000 indexes with large repair space have begun to exert force, and the elasticity is greater.
From the perspective of industry indexes, 8 of the 31 primary industries in Shenwan have been red since the beginning of this year
Data **: wind, as of March 4, 2024).
Since the beginning of the year, the main ones that have risen more are as followsBig finance and coal, petroleum and petrochemical and other related industriesIn the early adjustment process, more growth sectors have not recovered their losses for the time being because of the large decline.
Generally speaking, after the market gets out of the panic environment, the industries with direct positive stimuli will take the lead, just like the TMT and robot theme industries that are supported by the promotion of the overseas AI industry in this round, as well as the high-dividend related industries with additional preference for bailout funds, since the bottom of February 6, the ** range has been relatively high.
Therefore, investors who do not hold positions in the underlying assets may have a relatively slow rate of account repayment. However, although there is a slight "divergence" between the index** and the account returns, there is no need to worry too much, so let's talk about it in detail.
Is it necessarily bad to get up slowly after a deep fall? We need to discuss it on a case-by-case basis.
First, if there is less fall in the early stage, whether it is the industry itself in the early stage of the defensive good, or the manager takes the initiative to reduce the risk and adopt a relatively defensive strategy to avoid the bear market, the people should cherish such a **.
Because logically speaking, **10%, **12% is needed to return to the cost; 20%, 25% is required to pay back; And **30% needs **43% to pay back.
Different pullbacks require the increase in the amount
Data**: CITIC**.
Second, if it fell a lot in the early stage, but the heavy industry happened to not catch up with this round of wind, such as medicine and new energy, there is no need to worry about this situation, let alone jump left and right.
Because in the current rapid rotation of the big A, as long as the fundamentals of the industry remain unchanged, there is an opportunity to make up for the rise.
Third, there may be ** managers' investment style is more balanced and will not be overly concentrated in a certain industry, which may also weaken the ** strength, but this is not a bad thing, but an investment strategy.
As long as the manager has his own investment logic and strategy, which is what you recognize when you buy, then choose to continue to believe and don't envy others for how much they have risen. The more balanced the industry distribution and the more balanced the style, its ups and downs will generally be relatively peaceful, and it is more likely to grasp it in an all-round way.
Fourth, if the reason for not being able to keep up is that the manager made a mistake in judgment and wrote a reverse operation guide, then you need to think carefully.
Frequent misjudgment and historical performance has always been very poor, when it falls, it is the most energetic, and when it is completely unable to keep up or simply step short, and the manager does not explain it in time, giving the next response plan, at this time, you can consider converting.
However, the factors that determine the rise and fall of the market are more complex, the short-term seems to be wrong, the long-term may be the winner, one or two judgment errors can not deny the ability of the manager, or need to observe the long-term performance of the **.
At present, the A** field is in the stage of policy boost, low valuation, and confidence reversal, and it will take time to repair. After the rapid clearing since the beginning of the year, the A-share trading structure is improving, and with the active financial efforts and the recovery of economic vitality, ** is expected to stabilize and rebound again. Refer to the time and space of the first wave of the four market bottoms in 05, 08, 14-15 and 19**It usually lasts for about 3 months, and the index rises by about 25%-30%., the follow-up is still worth looking forward to.
Compared with the trend after the "bailout" in 2015 and 2018, A-shares have achieved three consecutive monthly positives for the first time, with an increase of about 30%. This round of the Shanghai Composite Index rose by about 15%, even from a cautious perspective, only focusing on the short-term overshoot**,**There is still room for upside。(*Huaxin**).
Especially as the dust settles on the blockbuster meeting and the policy tone becomes clearer, the calendar effect of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index after the two sessions is usually dominated by **, and the thematic investment brought by the key industrial policies mentioned in the meeting is also worth looking forward to. If you have doubts about this moment, and you are worried about missing the opportunityIt can also be laid out by investing in a broad-based index** to better grasp the market beta**
Investing is like a long-distance race, and at the beginning, we don't have to worry about who is 10 meters or 100 meters ahead, and we don't need to pay too much attention to winning or losing. Seeing the general trend, doing a good job in management, and following the trend is also another way to simplify, and patience and waiting at the moment may be the best bargaining chip
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