Different from the excessive optimism of the market on the prospects of new energy storage in previous years, after several years of practice, the reality gap of the limited role of energy storage projects, the mechanism of energy storage participation in the power market has not been perfected, and the profitability of terminal energy storage projects cannot be guaranteed, which will inevitably affect the investment enthusiasm of the market.
However, according to the observation of industry insiders, since the beginning of this year, there has been good news in the field of energy storage.
On February 18, Zhejiang Province released its 2024 energy storage target, planning to add 1.5 million kilowatts of new energy storageGuangdong Province also released "20 Articles" in the 2024 work report to further promote the development of the new energy storage industry, and strive to achieve 600 billion yuan in operating income of the province's new energy storage industry by 2025, with an average annual growth rate of more than 50%, and the installed capacity will reach 3GW, and by 2027, the operating income of the province's new energy storage industry will reach 1 trillion yuan, and the installed capacity will reach 4GW.
The frequent favorable policies have once again ignited hope for the energy storage industry, which has experienced overcapacity and the best war in 2023. Under the "dual carbon" goal, the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power continues to reach new highs. At the same time, the instability of wind and solar power generation has brought challenges to the consumption of new energy, and many industry problems such as overcapacity, profit dilemma, product homogenization, and safety still need to be solved, so how to break through the energy storage industry in 2024?
Duan Zhiqiang, president of Wanchuang Investment Bank Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the International Financial NewsThe energy storage industry in 2024 is destined to have ups and downs, and it is particularly important to build a standard-bearer enterprise. Considering that the overall installed capacity of new energy is still rising, it is still necessary to continue to allocate energy storage projects, and a variety of energy storage methods will need to go hand in hand in the future.
A tumultuous year for the energy storage industry
The three scenarios of energy storage are power side energy storage, grid side energy storage, and user side energy storage. With the proportion of solar energy and wind energy installed at new highs, the contradiction between the power generation side and the power consumption side has become increasingly prominent, especially the limitations of 2-hour short-term energy storage dominated by lithium batteries have been exposed, and long-term energy storage of more than 4 hours needs to be broken through.
Taking the power supply side distribution and storage as an example, due to the limitation of distribution and storage capacity and duration, the power consumption role of the power supply side enterprises themselves is relatively limited, mainly to meet the approval requirements of new energy project construction, and less consideration is given to the actual operation of subsequent energy storage, so they will tend to choose lower-cost solutions during the construction process, such as abandonment of electricity in some periods.
Looking forward to the development of the energy storage market this year, Duan Zhiqiang, president of the Wanchuang Investment Bank Research Institute, said in an interview with the reporter of "International Financial News" that the energy storage industry in 2024 is destined to have ups and downs, and the reasons behind it are mainly the following aspects:
First of all, the **chain** fluctuates, the problem of overcapacity is prominent, and the vicious circle of low-price competition continues.
In the past two years, affected by the soaring price of lithium carbonate, a raw material for batteries, the energy storage industry has been singing all the way, and upstream and downstream enterprises have greatly increased their production capacity. According to incomplete statistics from the industry, since 2023, energy storage manufacturers have announced nearly 70 expansion plans, with a total investment of more than 470 billion yuan, and the total expansion capacity of energy storage batteries and systems exceeds 900GW h.
The influx and expansion of production has caused the entire industry to quickly fall into a surplus situation. The "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage" issued by the National Energy Administration in 2021 pointed out that by 2025, the installed capacity of new energy storage will reach more than 30GW. By the end of 2023, China has put into operation a total of 34 new energy storage capacities5GW means that China's new energy storage has completed the target task two years ahead of schedule.
Second, the investment return model is uncertain, and the investment enthusiasm is hindered.
As a long-term industry, the initial investment cost of energy storage projects will increase significantly, and new energy companies often tend to choose energy storage products with lower initial costs. When energy storage companies were bidding, there was once a phenomenon of "the lowest price wins". For photovoltaic and wind power enterprises, distribution and storage means that investment increases and yields decrease, and the contradiction of "no distribution and storage" arises.
It is understood that the initial investment of an energy storage project with an installed capacity of 20% and a duration of 2 hours will increase by 8%-10% for a photovoltaic power station; The initial investment cost of wind farms with energy storage projects of the same capacity will increase by 15%-20%, and this cost is mainly borne by the power generation side. Contrary to the high configuration cost, the utilization rate of energy storage power stations is low. According to the "Electrochemical Energy Storage Power Station Industry Statistics in the First Half of 2023" released by the China Electricity Council, in the first half of 2023, China's electrochemical energy storage power stations will operate on an average daily basis of 417 hours, only 34% of the design utilization hours of the power station.
Shao Yuanjun, director of the research director of the transformation of scientific and technological achievements of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the high cost and weak downstream applications have become a major problem for the energy storage industry. At present, large-scale photovoltaic power plants need to get 026-0.A feed-in tariff of 3 yuan can cover the construction cost. However, in many areas, it is no longer possible, for example, the feed-in tariff in Qinghai Province is only 02277 yuan, Gansu Province requires new energy in the medium and long term to be controlled at 88-13.Between 3 points, Shandong Province also had negative electricity prices during May Day last year.
In response to the problem of profitability, Duan Zhiqiang explained, "Theoretically, the allocation of energy storage projects will extend the investment period, because it cannot create additional economic benefits, and the main role is to reduce the curtailment of solar and wind power." Duan Zhiqiang pointed out that at present, there are many problems with energy storage on the power supply side, and the power station has a large investment, who will bear the cost? Some people suggest that the user-side energy storage scenario should bear the responsibility, but there is a contradiction - the energy storage economic model is wrong. For example, in terms of how to control costs, the curtailment behavior of solar power without energy storage is not considered, and the calculation of battery residual value is incorrect; The neglect of factors such as battery reuse and cell life on the user side also makes the cost estimate inaccurate, resulting in a prominent mismatch between energy storage products and energy storage scenarios.
Moreover, cross-border players are uneven, energy storage companies are mixed, and reshuffle is inevitable.
The problem of overcapacity can't stop the crazy influx of capital and new players. In particular, under the background that new energy companies have regarded energy storage as the second growth curve, leading photovoltaic manufacturers and power battery companies have entered the field of energy storage in a big way, including many cross-border players. Tianyancha data shows that there will be as many as 7 new energy storage-related enterprises established in 202320,000, which is 18 times. There are also ** reports that there are currently nearly 1090,000 energy storage companies.
In this regard, Shao Yuanjun pointed out that with the influx of players from all walks of life, the energy storage market is mixed, and risks such as similar energy storage technology, homogenization of product quality, and the expulsion of good money by bad money are frequent. According to industry institutions, it is expected that more than 50% of energy storage system companies will be eliminated under the competition of energy storage subsidiaries of central state-owned enterprises and integrated enterprises with core component capabilities.
In addition, while the energy storage industry is overly reliant on policy-driven, safety issues need to be solved.
According to incomplete statistics, from 2011 to 2021, there were 32 accidents of energy storage power stations in the world. Among them, 25 accidents were used in ternary lithium-ion batteries, and 21 accidents occurred during charging or resting after charging. Since 2022, there have been a number of safety accidents in China's energy storage industry, and the development of the industry has not yet formed a unified safety standard and recognized solutions.
Who can be the king in the industry
Although there are many development problems, considering that the overall installed capacity of new energy is still rising, it is still necessary to continue to allocate energy storage projects in the future.
What kind of energy storage companies does the market need? Who can survive the knockouts? Duan Zhiqiang said in the interview that if you want to become the standard-bearer of the energy storage industry, you should have at least five characteristics:
First, we must have core technology and be able to provide products with excellent quality, safety, long life and cost-effectiveness;
Second, it is necessary to have better first-class chain management capabilities to bring better cost reduction effects to enterprises;
Third, there should be better channels for customer acquisition and expansion;
Fourth, it can continue to meet the needs of customers and provide corresponding products for different user scenarios in the domestic and foreign markets;
Fifth, there needs to be sufficient financing capacity. In the energy storage industry chain, upstream battery manufacturers are relatively strong, and downstream enterprises have a long cycle, and the business risks of enterprises such as pressure resistance and debt repayment are greater.
Some leading companies are continuing to expand their market share and enhance their brand influence. For example, in September 2023, Exxon New Energy will start construction of an energy storage battery project with an investment of 10 billion yuan in Zhuhai; In October, Pingmei Shenma Group and other enterprises invested 10 billion yuan to build energy storage and power battery projects; In November, Jiangsu Hengan Energy Storage Technology invested 10 billion yuan in Suqian to start the energy storage battery project; In December, the energy storage lithium battery project with an investment of 13 billion yuan was ......
At the same time, some central power enterprises, as the downstream owners of the energy storage industry, are gradually extending upstream, through the group's subsidiaries, or with CATL, Hyperstron, Zhongke Haina and other energy storage head enterprises to establish joint ventures, energy storage system integration, energy storage batteries and other businesses.
In the future, a variety of energy storage methods will need to go hand in hand
The energy storage industry will definitely become more and more volatile, and there is still room for policy development. The "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration proposes to realize the transformation of new energy storage from the initial stage of commercialization to large-scale development by 2025; By 2030, the comprehensive market-oriented development of new energy storage will be realized. In order to take into account the demand for power supply and new energy power generation, the new energy storage market space is still huge.
Among all kinds of new energy storage, electrochemical energy storage is a relatively mature type with the most commercial applications. Among them, although lithium-ion battery technology is popular due to the sharp decline in cost and high energy density, there are also problems such as insufficient safety, insufficient energy storage time, and difficult utilization.
How to achieve long-term energy storage technology? Duan Zhiqiang said, "Lithium battery is not the only way to store energy, at present, the economy of new energy storage technologies such as lithium-ion batteries, compressed air, flow batteries, sodium-ion batteries and flywheels is still weaker than that of pumped storage technology, and the future must be matched with suitable products according to user scenarios." Diversified energy storage technologies have significant advantages in improving the flexibility of the power system, promoting the consumption of new energy, and ensuring the safety of the power grid.
In fact, more new energy storage technologies have been noticed. Taking lead-carbon energy storage as an example, the domestic raw material reserves of lead-carbon batteries are sufficient, the industrial foundation is solid, and there is no problem of being stuck. It is understood that the current lead-carbon battery construction cost is 035-1 yuan Wh, compared to lithium-ion batteries 0The cost of 8-2 yuan Wh has a great economic advantage. Among them, lead plate can also achieve 100%** effective cost reduction and long-term recycling.
In addition, the flow battery with the highest degree of commercialization and technical maturity is the all-vanadium flow battery, which has a charge-discharge cycle life of more than 20,000 times and a calendar life of more than 15 years (generally more than 20 years), which is the longest life of all kinds of secondary batteries.