Dear friends, this morning *** set off a wave, ** index in a strong refresh of yesterday's high after a sudden sharp turn, aroused investors' curiosity about the source of the smashing and the possibility of a reversal in the afternoon**. There are two very different views in the market today: one side believes that the market is long overdue for a correction, and the other side believes that the uptrend will continue, and that there will be volatility but no significant risks. So, how to understand the sudden rapid dive this morning? Let's dive in:
First of all, even after this rapid dive, the overall momentum of this round is still solid. Interestingly, there are echoes between today and yesterday, both immediately after a new high**. This phenomenon of repeatedly testing the top and switching between high and low along with intraday funds can be regarded as a wash action, rather than a reversal in the real sense.
Secondly, Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, recently revealed the pain points and potential risks faced by the market, and clearly pointed out that the regulator will take decisive measures to prevent and control irrational fluctuations and severely punish deliberate short-selling, so as to consolidate market confidence.
In addition, by all accounts, the market does not have the basis for a significant **. Despite a slight contraction in volume yesterday, the market did not see significant selling pressure. At the same time, the latest January social finance data and February manufacturing PMI are within acceptable ranges, and February consumption data and social finance data will be released over the weekend, and the central bank recently revealed that there is still room for RRR cuts during the year, which shows that the policy toolbox is sufficient and can strongly support the stable operation of the market.
Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the occurrence of a large **, the intraday may experience a process of washing, **accumulating strength, whether it is completed within a day or a short-term adjustment, and the opportunity to expect the market to return to a low level again for a second ** may not be abundant.
As for today's market, the performance of high-level popular stocks appears to be relatively weak, while low-level cyclical stocks show a catch-up trend. The adjustment of high-level stocks is mainly concentrated in the technology stock sector, which has risen significantly in the early stage, reflecting that funds are switching between high and low. Low-level cyclical stocks, such as non-ferrous metals, cement and building materials, steel, tourism consumption and other industries, have benefited from the recovery of the industrial cycle or the recovery of consumer demand, ushering in a good opportunity to make up for the rise.
It is worth noting that the brokerage sector quickly dived after leading the ** higher this morning, which had a significant impact on the index. Looking back on yesterday, it was also the decline of the brokerage in the afternoon that caused the ** to turn from rising to falling. What kind of signal does this trend in the brokerage sector convey?
Observing the current position of the brokerage, although it helped to hit a new high every day, the fall after the rise also shows that its own adjustment has not yet been in place, and the current market divergence is large, and further ** washing is needed to reduce the obstacles of the divergence to the subsequent rise. The current adjustment range of brokerages is limited, which also indicates that even the adjustment will not be too drastic. And today's strong performance of low-level pro-cyclical stocks, especially the ** of non-ferrous metals, finance and insurance and other heavyweight stocks, will undoubtedly help stabilize the ** index. Combined with the fact that the brokerage has experienced a wave of diving in the morning, and in the afternoon, under the dual role of heavyweight stocks and brokers, the ** index is still very likely to achieve a V-shaped reversal.
At the same time, the ChiNext index fell deeper today, mainly due to the negative impact of WuXi Group's adjustment on the CRO sector, and the new energy sector weakened again after yesterday's **. The CRO sector has suffered a series of negative news this year, although the valuation has fallen to a low level and the decline is not small, but due to the frequent impact of the news, funds are still cautious about it, and it is recommended to wait and see at this stage.
Overall, after the market has experienced a continuous short-term boom, investors' psychology has gradually bred a sense of awe for the high, and the concept of bearishness and trying to short has gradually heated up. However, the stability of the market is not easily shaken, even if the market may fluctuate in the short term, but the speed of rebalancing is often faster, and funds take this opportunity to flexibly adjust positions and swap stocks, as shown by today's high-level technology stocks** and low-level cyclical stocks**.
Therefore, it is recommended that investors try to avoid blindly chasing prices in terms of operation, and for the ** holders of value depressions, they may wish to remain patient and wait for the opportunity. For those areas where the stock price volatility is increased at a high level, it is recommended to reduce it in a timely and appropriate manner to prevent risks.