As the first week of March begins, the global economic stage will be dominated by key decisions and reports from a range of major economies and institutions. From the Bank of Canada (BOC) and European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decisions to the highly anticipated US non-farm payrolls data, market volatility is inevitable, and investors need to be highly vigilant for indicators that could influence market sentiment and guide policy direction.
United Statesismservice sectorpmiRise
At the start of the week, the ISM services PMI for January reported a significant increase to 534, up from 50 in December5, indicating that the service sector is expanding strongly. Now the focus turns to the February report, which is expected to be released on March 5, with analysts** down slightly to 530。This data is crucial because it provides insight into the health of the U.S. services sector, which makes up a significant part of the U.S. economy.
Analyst's view: The U.S. ISM Services PMI reflects the current state of the U.S. services sector. This negative** could have a negative impact on the US dollar.
AustraliagdpGrowth continues to slow
Attention will turn to Australia on March 6, when gross domestic product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of 2023 will be released. The Australian economy slowed to 0 quarter-on-quarter growth in the third quarter2%, marking the slowest pace since the same quarter last year. Q4 ** remained cautious, with an expansion of 02%, reflecting the challenge of sustaining growth momentum.
Analyst Opinion: Australia's GDP reflects the current state of the Australian economy. This negative** could have a negative impact on the Australian dollar.
The Bank of Canada's interest rate decision
On the same day, the Bank of Canada is expected to announce its interest rate decision. Keeping the overnight interest rate unchanged at 5% for the fourth time since January, analysts widely believe that the Bank of Canada will continue this stance on March 6. This decision is highly anticipated given its potential impact on borrowing costs and economic activity.
Analyst Opinion: This week's BoC interest rate decision is expected to bring significant volatility to the Canadian dollar. Market Experts** The Bank of Canada will keep interest rates steady, which could lead to a weaker Canadian dollar.
The ECB will keep interest rates steady
On March 7, the ECB will make its interest rate decision. The ECB had previously kept interest rates at record highs, pledging to keep them "restrictive enough" to bring inflation back to its 2% target. Analysts expect the ECB to maintain the current 4The 5% interest rate is unchanged, a decision that will be closely scrutinized for its impact on the eurozone economy.
Analyst Opinion: This week's ECB interest rate decision is also expected to lead to significant volatility in the value of the euro. Analysts foresee that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged, which could put downward pressure on the euro.
Canada and U.S. employment reports
The week will conclude with the release of Canadian and US employment data on March 8. The Canadian job market showed resilience in January, with a significant increase in employment and a slight decline in the unemployment rate. February's data is expected to show an increase of 20k jobs, although the unemployment rate could pick up to 58%。
In the US, the focus will be on the February non-farm payrolls report. After a strong 353k job additions in January, analysts** will see a more modest increase of around 200,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 37% unchanged. This report is an important indicator of the overall health of the U.S. economy and may influence future policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.
Analyst Opinion: Upcoming employment data will reflect current labor market conditions in both countries. In light of this negative**, the value of the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar could be adversely affected.