As we mentioned in our last article, Hong Kong stocks may be an opportunity for us ordinary people to turn over and cross the class this year, but there is a prerequisite for this to be the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. If there is no real start to cut interest rates, just focus on those so-called rate cut expectations, and intervene too early can be hugely risky. Know that expectations are subject to change.
Why is it said that at this stage, the financial war is about to enter a climax? Yesterday, due to the panic of the dollar, Egypt's resistance failed, and the official announcement of "surrender", Egypt's exchange rate **60%, Egypt's national assets are about to be looted. Many people don't know what foreign exchange means, if a country is panicked because of the US dollar and cannot maintain the stability of the exchange rate by selling the US hot spot engine plan yuan, then the exchange rate will collapse directly.
The result is turmoil in financial markets, rapid depreciation of assets, a sharp rise in the cost of debt in dollar terms, and a downturn in the economy, reduced investment, large number of business closures, a sharp spike in unemployment, extremely high inflation, a sharp increase in the cost of living, and social unrest. Therefore, the financial war is not what ordinary people think, it is just that the exchange rate has been lowered. What is at stake is the wealth of the entire country and the nation.
Recently, I saw an advertisement that the interest on deposits could reach 10%. Note that this is not a financial management, it is a deposit. Deposits need to be paid rigidly. Because it is necessary to exchange currency, the risk lies in the exchange rate, which can be avoided through foreign exchange swaps. Although this is an act of free competition in the market, banks are willing to sacrifice profits to save money. But is there a possibility that foreign exchange reserves will be depleted quickly in a short period of time? If a large number of residents go to exchange currency, will the crisis of exchange rate stability increase?
Recently, the market has expected the yen to exit negative interest rates and raise interest rates. Our RMB exchange rate is based on the linked exchange rate of a basket of currencies. The largest share of the shares is the US dollar, followed by the euro and the Japanese yen, which share their share respectively. 93%。The Fed's interest rate hike is hurting the enemy by 1,000 and losing 800 by itself, so the interest rate hikes of the dollar and the euro are nearing the end, but now the yen is the yen that has a greater impact on us.
If the Fed's interest rate hikes have almost burst its own financial system, causing a large number of banks to be on the verge of failure; Then the yen's interest rate hike may be the charge of the financial war, the pinnacle of the decisive battle. The financial war needs to be resolved quickly, otherwise both sides will be exposed to risks to the stability of the financial system. Then the final concentration will be between March and June.
Why is it between March and June? Let's look at the coincidences. The Fed postponed its interest rate cut expectations from March to the beginning of the third quarter, that is, June. And the foreign exchange savings activities of these banks also happened to be during this time period. Do you still remember the "Hong Kong Economic Office ** (HKETO) Certification Act" passed by the US House of Representatives last year? In terms of timing, this bill is also in May. If the negotiations break down, will it cause turmoil in Hong Kong's financial markets?
This war will affect the global status of the United States, and then it will determine the future global pattern. Before that, they had been raising interest rates for two years. Seeing that our economy is recovering so fast, are they already in a hurry? Last night, the U.S. Senate quickly passed the previously delayed Senate version of the "Biosecurity Act". As a result, the Yaomin series** collectively fell sharply today, and the A-share Yaomin Kangde fell directly to the limit. In the coming time, it is unknown whether they will introduce more bills.
However, we believe that with our existing foreign exchange reserves and continuous surplus, coupled with the world's most complete industrial system, we will win this financial war and the United States will lose. It may inevitably cause turmoil in the financial markets, but we will definitely achieve the ultimate victory, and the future of the global landscape will be rewritten. Let them understand what it means to change things that have not been seen in a century.