The Japanese yen rose in response to the sharp rise in expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in March, and the Japanese market suffered a "double kill of stocks and bonds", and the market focused on the results of the annual wage negotiations of the unions, which will be released at the end of this month.
On Thursday, March 7, the yen rose strongly, breaking above the 149 mark against the dollar and now reaching 14865, hitting a one-month high.
The Nikkei 225 index slipped from a record high, extending losses in the afternoon to close down 131% at 395985 points.
Japan's 2-year government bond yield rose to 0192%, the highest since 2011.
On the message side,Thursday afternoon,Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that if the price target can be achieved, he will consider adjusting the easing policy, and the probability of achieving the ** target is gradually rising.
Bank of Japan member Junko Nakagawa "hawked" on Thursday morningThe Japanese economy is making steady progress, inflation is moving towards the 2% price target, and there has been a marked change in the stance of companies in setting wages, and the possibility of raising wages is increasing.
Her comments came a day after reports that some BOJ board members could take a stance at this month's policy meeting to lift negative interest rates.
Wage data was also positive, with nominal cash receipts rising 2% year-on-year in January, the fastest pace since JuneThis is higher than the revised 0. in December last year8% increase, outpacing economists by 12% consensus estimate. Real salaries fell by 06%, a smaller than expected decline and the lowest decline in a year.
Statements by central bank members and accelerated wage growth are the reasons for the Bank of Japan's recent end to negative interest rate policyOvernight index swaps showed that the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in March surged to 79% on Thursday. Earlier in the day, swaps markets had priced in a minimum of 28% of a rate hike in March, which had fallen back to around 50% by 14:10 Tokyo time.
The annual wage negotiations between Japanese companies and labor unions are currently culminating, and the first results are expected to be announced next week.
The Bank of Japan is keeping a close eye on wage trends for signs of a virtuous cycle of wage increases and demand-driven prices**.
This is a prerequisite for the Bank of Japan to end negative interest rates, which most economists expect to exit this month or next, and the next policy-setting meeting of the Bank of Japan's policy committee is scheduled for March 18-19.
A key question is whether this year's wage negotiations will lead to wage increases that exceed the inflation rate, which could spur stronger consumer demand.
UA Zensen, a union made up of more than 1.8 million members in industries such as retail and restaurants, is expected to announce the results of the negotiations on Thursday morning, while Rengo, Japan's largest trade union federation, will announce the average demands made by its union in the afternoon.
The analysis suggests that wage growth is likely to accelerate in the next fiscal year, with the Bank of Japan saying in its January outlook report that pressure on wages** is increasing as labor market conditions continue to tighten.
It is worth mentioning that Japan has a long-term labor shortage, and the unemployment rate in Japan fell to 2 in January4%, the lowest since the beginning of 2020. A demand indicator showed 127 jobs for every 100 job seekers in the month.
Thursday's report showed data that avoids sampling issues and excludes bonuses and overtime pay, showing that wages for full-time employees actually rose 2% in January, up from 2.2 in December1% has slowed, but this level has met or exceeded the BOJ's target of 2% for the fifth consecutive month. Economists expect wage negotiations to increase wages by 388%。
In addition, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is personally lobbying corporate executives to raise their salaries significantly, and Fumio Kishida has taken a series of measures, including tax cuts for companies that raise wages. Tian Wenxiong reportedly plans to meet with business leaders and union leaders next week to make a final push for a pay rise.
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