The US dollar raises interest ratesWe will discuss this issue in more detail today. Recently, some market institutions ** US dollar will be ushered inCut interest ratescycle, which has sparked a lot of discussion and speculation. However, in recent daysEconomyThe data showsThe US dollar raises interest ratesThe possibility is still there. Against this background, we need to focus on an important event that will be the decisive factor in whether or not to raise interest rates in the next three months.
Recent data showed that US inflation and employment data for October were relatively positive, and the market was optimistic about the USEconomyExpectations have changed. Inflation rateMore than 4% is expected, and some even think it could reach 45%。At the same time, November's non-farm payrolls increase data also suggests that the labor market remains strong. The release of these data triggered the chairman of the US Federal Reserve SystemPowellattention. PowellIt has been repeatedly stressed that the Fed will be based on the main oneEconomyindicators to make interest rate decisions for nowCut interest ratesPremature. This position is in stark contrast to the previous **, which makes people interested in:The US dollar raises interest ratesThe possibility raises new questions.
To understandThe US dollar raises interest ratesThere are two key factors that we need to consider. First of all,The US dollar raises interest ratesIt is to maximize the global interests of the big capitalists and big chaebols behind the United States. This means that the Fed will stop raising interest rates only when it reaches its limit. Current data shows that the United StatesEconomyThe limit has not yet been reached, so the possibility of a rate hike remains. Secondly,The US dollar raises interest ratesIt's a seesaw effect. On the one hand, the dollar interest rate, on the otherUnited States**ofFiscal deficits。Over the past few years, despite the United StatesEconomyGrowth has been achieved against the backdrop of interest rate hikes, but the root cause of this is:United States**Continued expansionFiscal deficits。According to Biden**Budgetscenario, ifFiscal deficitsKeep increasing, thenThe US dollar raises interest rateswill increase. On the contrary, ifFiscal deficitsreduce, then it may appearCut interest ratessituation.
In interpretationThe US dollar raises interest ratesfuture trends,EconomyData is only one factor, the key is to observe an important landmark event. This is Biden**'s 2024BudgetScheme. If the programme is adopted and continues to be expandedFiscal deficits, thenThe US dollar raises interest ratesThe likelihood increases. Conversely, if the plan is rejected or reducedFiscal deficits, thenThe US dollar raises interest ratesThe likelihood will go down. Although the relevant institutions in the United States and Europe have not explicitly mentioned the issue, this does not mean that its importance has been ignored. Such a situation is very much like a story in a fairy tale, "The Emperor's New Clothes", and few people dare to reveal the truth.
To sum up, for nowThe US dollar raises interest ratesThe outlook remains, and the key will depend on Biden'sBudgetWhether the programme continues to expandFiscal deficits。as an individualInvestmentsWe need to pay careful attention to the release of all kinds of news and data in order to make the right decisions. In addition, we also need to adapt to our ownEconomysituation and risk tolerance, formulated reasonablyInvestmentsPlans and strategies. The most important thing is not to blindly follow the hot spots in the market, but to keep thinking rationally and make decisions based on your own judgment. Only in this way can it be inInvestmentsGet more benefits and protect your interests.