Since last year's 14% surge, ** has become more and more popular.
The house can't be speculated, **no research,**distrust,deposit interest rates have been falling, what else can you do except stock up more**?
There are good brothers who buy early and always ask lately-".Isn't it fragrant?
Probably since last Friday, **** has begun to speed up again, tracking** spot ETFs have risen by 1%, and ETFs and LOFs that buy ** stocks have risen even more exaggeratedly.
Translation, translation, what is the shortcoming!
Looking back at history, there have been several rounds of bull bulls, the first wave was the Great Stagflation of the 1969-1980s, the asset class that performed well, the second wave was the aggressive monetary policy around the world from 1999 to 2011, and then now it may be the third wave, the post-COVID-19 era of increasingly volatile and tense international relations has regenerated demand for **.
What do we know about?
Since the subprime mortgage crisis in 08, the role of the US dollar as an "international currency" has essentially weakened at the margin, and everyone finds that when the United States sneezes, other countries have to catch a cold.
The beautiful country can use the dollar to tax globally, which is an integral part of his hegemony.
But the so-called ** there is oppression, ** there is resistance.
Bitcoin is actually invented by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008-2009, and the original intention of the invention of digital currency is actually to create the concept of decentralized super-sovereign currency, but no one expected that the speculative nature of this thing turned out to be so strong.
To some extent, the role played by ** is a "super-sovereign currency", and compared with Bitcoin, ** volatility is relatively milder, more recognized, and safer.
In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in the face of joint sanctions from Western countries, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble collapsed by 50%, but it was the Central Bank of Russia that acquired the Bank of Russia with a fixed **purchase of 5,000 rubles**, and tied the ruble to **strongly, which stabilized the exchange rate to a certain extent.
After all, a banknote without a ** endorsement is not also waste paper?
As of the end of January 2024, the data disclosed by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange shows that the central mother has increased its holdings for 15 consecutive months, and the corresponding increase in holdings should exceed 133 billion yuan according to the average price of the range, which is the most positive in the world.
The above explains why it is important, and the reasons for it are also related to high inflation, potential interest rate cut windows, currency over-issuance, and so on.
Clause. First, the overseas inflation problem is still very big, although it does not produce interest, but it hedes its value, the money is worthless, and the purchasing power has declined, which pushes up the actual purchasing power of the country.
Clause. Second, although I still think that the current inflation level and the U.S. economy have no need to cut interest rates, it does not prevent Powell from doing a good job in briefing (expectation management), and the market is indeed deducing according to the logic of the interest rate cut window at present.
History shows that the performance of the rate hike cycle is relatively average, and the performance of the rate hike cycle is OK from the end of the rate hike to the interest rate cut window.
Clause. Third, the long-term should be proportional to the growth of global debt and the growth rate of over-issued currency, look at the M2 growth rate of the United States in recent decades, put so much water, of course, it will also be moderately reflected in the gold price.
Fourth, the current global economy is closest to the stagflation period of the 70-80s of the last century, which is second only to energy and significantly outperforms other assets, while the stars of the capital market, as a comparison, have been growing up in consumption, medicine has been relatively poor, heart-wrenching? When will the family members of the core assets be able to untie the set?
Investors who allocate ** early
Of course, the above is all after ***, the explanation of the rearview mirror.
Why it has risen so much and so quickly, whether it is the Spring River Plumbing that indicates some risks that we don't know, I don't know.
There is indeed a gap between knowing why it is rising and whether it can guide our investment.
If you want to invest well, at least it means that investors have a relatively deep macro framework, and this ability is scarce.
In the public offering, Yang Jinjin and Dong Chen bought ** shares relatively early, and their performance has been good in recent years, and everyone knows it.
As a class of assets with weak correlation with ** and bonds, ** is an indispensable part of the asset allocation of large categories.
But in fact, there are not many people who really have the ability to allocate **, and observing the top ten circulating shareholders of the largest **ETF (518880) in the whole market can be found -
Starting from 2021, Lin Guohuai's Xingquan FOF and Yu Shanhui's FOF during the Minsheng Jiayin period have laid out **ETF.
The two are also a minority who enjoy performance and reputation in the FOF product line.
Bridgewater's private placement** has been one of the top 10 holders of Huaan** ETF since it entered China, and Bridgewater's performance in China is also very good.
Managers who truly have the ability to allocate large types of assets are undoubtedly valuable assets in the market.
What do I not know about?
In addition to the logic of oil, coal, copper, oil transportation, aluminum and other commodities, I personally feel that it is now highly sought after, and it vaguely reveals the anxiety of the shortage of assets on the residential side, which is the same as the feeling that dividends are concerned.
In this regard, I also compared the relationship between the CSI Dividend Total Return Index and the trend of COMEX since its release.
2005-2012 ** bull market, ** yield is higher than the total return of CSI dividends; Later, the cumulative income of CSI dividends surpassed that of ***.
Now that the dividend is in resonance with the **, what will be the trend in the next ten years?
*This rise is really provocative, but from my personal point of view, there are really too many variables that affect ***, and I feel that I can't hold it.
And, I think any ** that does not consider selling is risky, I don't know what you have to know about the take profit of **?
When a variety rises well, we will subconsciously see why he is good, and it is easy to ignore his shortcomings; And when a breed does not perform well, it tends to be the other way around.
At the time of the ** record highs, it seems that everyone has forgotten how to look at ** in 2020, let me help you recall-
1. ** is a metal lump that cannot generate future cash flow.
Buried in the ground a hundred years ago, dug up a hundred years later, it is still these **, and there is no way to discount future cash flows according to the DCF method; And if you bought Coca-Cola's ** a hundred years ago, it will multiply hundreds of thousands of times after a hundred years.
2. Warren Buffett has repeatedly mentioned that ** is a bad investment variety.
Because ** does not generate profits, so under the PE (price earning) valuation method, the denominator is 0, PE is infinite, and even the entity ** has to consider the storage cost, **ETF also has to consider the transaction cost, so the actual PE should be negative.
For someone like Warren Buffett who cares about book value and cash flow, there is only the value that humans subjectively give him.
If the Martians observe the earthlings and watch the humans refine the ** out of this mine, store him in another pit, and spend money to watch him, it will feel strange.
So you see, whether to vote or not to vote is actually reasonable.
*It feels very solid, but don't forget, as recently as 2013**, it was also 27%, and it has been losing money for 3 consecutive years.
Therefore, I think that the attitude of ordinary investors towards ** should be to either listen to Buffett and not consider interest-bearing assets; Or listen to Dalio and David Swenson, look for investors who really have the ability to allocate assets, and let them trade for us.
However, don't chase after yourself because of new highs and big rises.
Either believe it early or don't believe it, I think it should also be true on the **.
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