Author丨Leaf wheat ear.
Editor丨Xiao Bei.
Figure source丨Figure worm.
On March 5, ** broke through a record high, and the spot ** rushed to the most2126.$63 oz(As of 6:20 p.m. Beijing time), it broke through the 2120 at the end of last yearA high of 04 pips. The domestic ** also continued to rise, reaching a maximum of 498 today24 yuan gram,It hit a new high in the 16-year history of listing。Since May last year, ** has been breaking through new highs, which has also attracted the attention of many investors.
As the price of gold continues to climb, the market is heating up. Some Shuibei merchants said that the current business volume has increased by about two percent compared with before the holiday, and the customers are mainly distributors and individual customers.
With the Fed's interest rate cut expectations further heating up, the market consensus is that the probability of breaking new highs this year is high, and ANZ has adjusted its ** price target to $2,200 an ounce this year.
The expectation of interest rate cuts has become the main reason for the sharp rise
After entering the New Year's Pass, ** hot sales. "Our Year of the Dragon gold bars, transfer beads, etc. have been sold out. Zhu Zhigang, chief analyst of Guangdong Association, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald.
Shuibei merchants are also actively broadcasting on Douyin, and the ** of one gram of golden beans this morning is 498 yuan.
The business manager of a shopping mall in Guangzhou saidSome customers buy investment gold bars twice a day, and the purchase amount exceeds 200,000. "This year's ** has been high at the beginning of the year, and the demand has increased greatly, and some counters that used to sell jewelry and jade have now turned to **. The above-mentioned business manager said.
Banking channels are also eyeing the best products. Recently, the reporter came to a number of offline bank outlets for consultation. A joint-stock bank said that the Year of the Dragon commemorative banknotes, commemorative medals, etc. have been selling well recently, and have a certain collection value, "I just sold a set of 50g heavy ones this morning." In addition, the reporter also found that Bank of China, China Construction Bank and other bank apps have put on the shelves the corresponding Year of the Dragon zodiac gold products.
In addition to collectible gold products, more customers are coming to the bank to buy gold bars with investment properties. According to a relationship manager of China Construction Bank, compared with the jewelry gold sold in shopping malls, the bank's gold bars are of higher purity, and because there are no processing fees involved, the unit price of gold bars is also more affordable.
Liu Youhua, deputy director of the wealth research department of Paipai.com, said in an interview with reportersThere are four reasons for the recent surge
First, Fitch's downgrade of New York's community banks to junk status means increased pressure on regional banks, which has boosted the attractiveness of the bank.
Second, the recent economic data released by the United States was less than expected, and the market further calibrated its expectations for interest rate cuts; As an interest rate sensitive asset, interest rate cuts are expected to push
Third, under the general trend of de-dollarization, central banks of various countries are actively stockpiling, which has led to an increase in demand.
Fourth, geopolitical risks have boosted, from the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which has led to an increase in investors' demand for safe-haven assets. Liu Youhua believes that under the loose expectations, the current situation has fallen into a situation where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall.
Xia Fengguang, manager of Rongzhi Investment, also believes that the international gold price trend has been rising recently, and the background is that the Federal Reserve is about to start an interest rate cut cycle this year, and the market is repeatedly hyping around economic data and the rhythm of interest rate discussions.
However, Xia Chunguang is more cautious about the follow-up trend. He thinksJudging from the divergence between ETF allocation and gold prices, the rise is mainly driven by speculative forces on the floor
Xia Chunguang believes that the most important factor affecting the volatility of the market outlook is the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, if the Fed only starts to cut interest rates in June, gold prices may fall after short-term activity. The absolute value of inflation in the United States is not low, and the economy is relatively resilient, and the current gold price has priced in more interest rate cut expectations, but the pricing of Treasury bonds** is not so optimistic. The Fed is more likely to be verbal and hawkish in action, trying to maintain the stability of assets and seek a balance between economic performance and market expectations. Therefore, the probability of a larger-than-expected rate cut is slim, and it is more likely that it will only be a tentative rate cut in June. **Assets are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the context of interest rate cuts, but the characteristics of high leverage have also gathered a large number of speculative funds, so they often deviate from the mean**. In terms of investment, it is recommended that investors adhere to long-term allocation investment, and it is not recommended to chase high.
With the price of gold**, the trading volume of ETFs has also skyrocketed. For example, the turnover of **ETF (159934) on February 29 was 87.77 million yuan, and the turnover on the three trading days of March directly exceeded 100 million, which was 1. on March 12.6 billion, March 4 18.9 billion, 2 today4.8 billion,Compared with 4 trading days, the turnover has more than doubled。Some companies said that ETFs support T+0 trading, and OTC investors can easily lay out investment opportunities through connections.
Institutions increase research on related companies
Zhu Zhigang, chief analyst of Guangdong ** Association, said that just after the Spring Festival, it broke through a new high, both the use value and the investment value have received the attention of the market.
* soared, the market was hot, ** the company also attracted the research of institutions.
On March 5, China** announced that the company would be surveyed by 55 institutions on February 27, 2024. The survey includes the company's performance, dividends, competitiveness and buybacks.
Caibai Co., Ltd. announced on March 1 that from February 27 to February 29, 2024, the company received more than 30 institutions such as Guohai**, including the changes in the company's gross profit margin in the next two or three years, and the changes in the company's expense ratio in the next two or three years.
On January 17, the record of investor relations activities released by Zhou Dasheng showed that the company accepted the investigation of Taikang**, Xingshi Investment, Yuanlesheng and other institutions on January 16. The company said that the net increase in stores in the fourth quarter of 2023 is mainly due to the following reasons: first, there are more general stores opened in the fourth quarter, and the number of store closures is small; 2. In the fourth quarter, there were many new and adjusted channels in terminal shopping centers; Third, franchisees will generally land in stores before the peak sales season (such as the Spring Festival).
Huang Zepeng, an analyst at open source, said that Zhou Taisheng, a leading jewelry brand, announced that as of December 31, 2023, the company's total number of stores will reach 5,106, a net increase of 490 stores from the end of 2022, exceeding the target of opening 400 stores. On the one hand, consumers' awareness of the investment attributes has strengthened to drive the industry's prosperity, and on the other hand, the changes in the preferences of franchisees in some other industries for chain formats have also injected new vitality into the jewelry industry.
Xu Guanghui, an analyst at West China, judged that from the perspective of volume and price splitting, the high consumption of jewelry may continue. China's ** jewelry industry has entered a new stage of development, characterized by high gold prices + self-pleasing consumption + product process upgrading, in the short term, ** jewelry will still dominate the core demand, and is expected to maintain rapid growth in the future.
A number of institutions have raised their grades this year
The market is more determined about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this year, so many institutions have raised the increase in gold prices this year.
Gold prices will benefit from accommodative monetary policy, rising geopolitical risks and strong central bank purchases in 2024, according to ANZ strategists. 2024** will continue to shine. 2024** looks set to be well supported by several factors: the start of the US rate cut cycle, slowing economic growth, a weaker US dollar, strong central bank purchases, and rising geopolitical risks. Weak investment demand provides investors with the opportunity to increase***. Raise the 12-month*** from $2,150 to $2,200 per ounce.
Recently, HSBC conducted a new round of assessment of the future trend of the market, and the results showed that expectations for gold prices have improved. According to HSBC's latest**, the 2024** is adjusted to $1,947 per ounce, an increase of nearly $100 from the previous ** value of $1,850. At the same time, the 2025 ** has also been adjusted from $1,725 to $1,835 per ounce, an increase of $110. From the current point of view, it is clear that HSBC is conservative.
The Goldman Sachs research team pointed out that in the current macro environment, **will soon usher in a very violent**, and set a target price of $2,175 ounces in the next 12 months. Goldman Sachs analyst Nicholas Snowdon and his commodity research team said that the decline in US Treasury interest rates, the weakness of the dollar and the continued rise in geopolitical risks should continue to provide clear support for the market.
Liu Chenye, an analyst at Donghai, believes that in the long run, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be loose, the U.S. fiscal deficit will be the problem, and the central bank's gold purchases will continue to be good or continue to be positive.
* Soaring, the central bank has also become "gold dust", On February 7, data updated on the official website of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on the same day showed that as of the end of January 2024,The People's Bank of China's ** reserves were reported at 72.19 million ounces, up 320,000 ounces from the previous month。At present, the official ** reserve has increased for the 15th consecutive month.
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Editor: Liu Xueying, intern: Liao Jiayi.
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