Since entering the new era of 2024, China's real estate market has continued to adjust last year. According to the latest housing price data released by the China Index Research Institute, the average selling price of second-hand residential properties in 100 major cities across the country in January was RMB15,230 per square meter, a month-on-month increase of RMB056%, which is the 21st consecutive month of month-on-month decline. It is worth noting that the number of cities in January, which is slightly less than December 2023, reached 99 month-on-month**; The number of cities with declining second-hand housing** has remained at 90 or above for 8 consecutive months.
At the same time, a series of support policies introduced in January are not uncommon. According to the Beike Research Institute, at the beginning of 2024, some second- and third-tier cities will continue to reduce the interest rate of first home loans. As of mid-January, the interest rate on the first home loan in 60 major cities in China has dropped to "3". In addition, the Suzhou area has also started from the overall situation and fully lifted the "purchase restriction" policy. It is worth emphasizing that Shanghai has also relaxed the restrictions on the purchase of houses by non-registered singles, and only needs to pay social insurance for five years to buy a property outside the Outer Ring Road.
In the face of the current reality that the adjustment of the real estate market is becoming more and more prominent and various policy good news is frequently spreading, many home buyers are confused: whether they should buy a house in 2024, and whether they will be "happy" or "regretful" after 5 years?
In fact, Mr. Cao Dewang had foreseen such a problem many years ago. He once said that the house itself is nothing more than a pile of reinforced concrete buildings, and its value is not as high as people generally think. Therefore, he admonishes families who own multiple properties to vacate their properties as soon as possible in case they fall into a situation where they cannot be rented out. It can be seen that Cao Dewang predicts that the real estate market will gradually lose its value in the future, and those who buy a property now are likely to regret it in 5 years. Therefore, if you have an idle property in your hand, you should get cash income as soon as possible.
However, there are a few people who hold a different view, they believe that in the next five years, China's real estate market may be differentiated. In particular, those third- and fourth-tier cities with relatively homogeneous industrial structures and a greater net outflow of population than inflows are expected to see housing prices in these places remain in a state of adjustment for a long time. Therefore, if you choose not to buy a house in 2024, you should feel quite sure.
On the other hand, in first-tier and some second-tier cities, housing prices are expected to continue to rise in the next five years due to the generally high population density in urban areas and the continuous emergence of housing demand. Therefore, if you choose not to buy a house in a first-tier or some second-tier cities in 2024, you may feel deeply regrettable in 5 years.
Here, with regard to some of the above views, we agree with them that most of the layout of the real estate market in third- to fourth-tier cities in the next five years is accurate. Of course, in their eyes, we disagree that housing prices in first-tier cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, as well as some important second-tier cities, will continue to rise in the next five years. Taken together, there are two major doubts about this view:
First of all, although it is true that housing prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have fallen slightly, compared to.
The overall decline in second- and third-tier cities is indeed slower.
For example, in the past, for example, in 2021, housing prices in downtown Shanghai once climbed to a peak of more than 100,000 yuan per square meter, but until today, the housing prices there have dropped to about 60,000 or 70,000 yuan per square meter, which has fallen by more than 30% compared with before. Therefore, if we only look at the contribution of some foreseeable risk factors, it is reasonable to assume that the housing prices of these first-tier cities will rise all the way without any fluctuations or **, which is undoubtedly not an objective and comprehensive view.
Secondly, taking the high housing prices of the first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen as examples, they have a higher than average price.
Third- and fourth-tier cities have a higher bubble coefficient, and their ** level is far beyond the tolerance of ordinary residents. For example, if you want to buy a house in Shanghai with an area of about 80 square meters, you have to be prepared to pay at least 5,000,000 6,000,000 RMB. That is, the ratio between house prices and household disposable income there is a staggering 50:1. Even if every member of the family were to cut back on food, it would take an average of 50 to 60 years to afford such a house.
Moreover, from a global perspective, these three cities – Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen – are firmly in the top five for house prices around the world. And even Guangzhou, which has a slightly inferior housing price, has squeezed into the top 10 of the global housing price rankings. Therefore, whether viewed from a national or global perspective, the housing prices in these first-tier cities are still at a high position. According to the average income of local residents and their ability to pay, such high housing prices are undoubtedly difficult to sustain for a long time. Therefore, we believe that in the next five years, housing prices in these cities will gradually return to a more reasonable level, which is also an inevitable trend of market development.