Author |Yan Da.
In the past few days, the price of gold has exploded, breaking through the historical high! **Jewelry** approaching 650 yuan grams, gold bars ** at about 512 yuan grams, last Friday's gold bar price was still around 482 yuan, just a few days gold bars rose by more than 6%, the international gold price a few days ago a total increase of 35%。As far as *** is concerned, this kind of increase is very rare in the short term, and it is a sudden jump. 
The price of gold at home and abroad has risen so much, some people have cashed out overnight, and there are also jewelry store owners who sold more than 300,000 ** jewelry in the live broadcast the night before. However, in general, for Chinese people who love to buy gold jewelry, this wave of price increases is equivalent to inclusiveness, and the gold jewelry in their hands continues to appreciate, and chicken legs must be added. Then again, why the sudden jump? It can also be seen from the graph that the international gold price on the 3rd No. 1 suddenly jumped on Friday, and jumped again intraday this Monday, with a total of more than 35%, which is too rare. There are three mainstream concepts in the market:First of all, last week, the Federal Reserve's inflation indicators increased the expectation of interest rate cuts in the first half of the year, and the market continued to rumor of interest rate cuts, which triggered *** because if you look at it alone, the US dollar interest rate cut is equivalent to the beginning of the US dollar depreciation, which is good for **, and it is easy**. Secondly, it was due to the US dollar index, US Treasury yields**, and the New York Stock Exchange*** that caused the spot gold price to suddenly skyrocket. The other is the global distrust of the dollar system, the dollar is negatively correlated with ** in a certain sense, the dollar is strong and weak, the dollar is weak and the dollar is weak, and the US economic growth data is less than expected to lead to the weakening of the dollar, which indirectly boosts the *** I personally feel that it is difficult to distinguish between truth and falsehood, some of which are superficial and some may be close to the real reason. Take the dollar interest rate cut as an example, this thing is like a "wolf is coming", many domestic rhythmic goods have been shouted from last year to the present, not only did the wolf not come, but the sheep were cut a lot. Most of the overseas sellers are institutions, and in the reality that the U.S. stock market continues to rise or even breaks the historical record, the expected return on investment is much higher than that generated by investment. After all, the hedging value and anchoring instrument value are higher than the investment value, and the United States continues to prosper, and it is impossible for institutions to sell **to heavy positions**, at least in the context of overseas ** has been rising and rising, ** cannot be the heavy position allocation of institutions. The only explanation is that last year, when the U.S. stock market continued to be **, institutions were selling a lot of ** and only had a very small amount of positions. So at that time, overseas institutions were selling, and who was in *** In fact, this is a well-known fact that there are many "pick-up heroes", and the central banks of many countries around the world have bought, but the biggest and fiercest may be China's central bank. As of January, the People's Bank of China has been in large numbers for fifteen consecutive months
Therefore, the rise and fall of the dollar for more than a year is related to the interest rate hike and cut, strength and weakness of the dollar, but the correlation is lower than in the past, after all, before 2022, China's central bank did not have such a large and continuous ***So back to the question at the beginning, who was suddenly *** causing the ** jump last Friday and this Monday? Personally, I think it is very likely that many institutions are adjusting their positions and allocation. For example, sell at a profit from U.S. stocks, and then invest the funds in **, even if *** is not low. This speculation is also corroborated by the continuous loosening of the U.S. stock market stance in recent trading days. Of course, from a macro point of view, the jump or fall of ** is always strongly related to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, energy crises, debt crises, and inflation in the world's major economies. Whether it is Russia, Ukraine, Palestine and Israel, as well as the expansion of the Red Sea crisis, the turbulent waves in the outside world have not eased, not only have no signs of easing, but also have spilled over from time to time. Coupled with the fact that foreign exchange funds have been frozen and the Cold War mentality of the United States is serious, many countries have become more and more cautious about the credit of the US dollar, which is also one of the important factors for the central banks of many countries to buy. So if you want to ask me whether it will continue to rise, I personally think that in the absence of obvious consensus or easing in the external environment, it is difficult for gold prices to fall much; Moreover, there is a "nuclear mine" here, that is, the huge debt of the United States, once the Ponzi who borrows the new to repay the old cannot play and the economy has a hard landing, then I am afraid that it will rise to the sky. Of course, this is only a personal judgment and should not be used as an investment basis.