The recent surge in gold prices has become the focus of market attention.
The international gold price hit a new high, and the domestic gold price also went crazy. Wind data shows that London Gold is now at 2147 on March 6$975 oz, comex*** at 2156$5 ounces, both ushered in historic**; On the domestic side, the Shanghai ** Exchange au9999**spot** also once exceeded 500 yuan gram, and the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit a new high, ** reported 50350 g; At the same time, the gold price of pure gold jewelry of many brands has risen to 650 yuan, and many ** stocks in the A** field have also risen sharply.
In this context, many **-share ETFs rose by more than 7% in March; Shanghai Gold ETF and ** ETF have also risen by about % in the past year, and the scale has been rising, and the latest scale of the largest ** ETF in the whole market is nearly 14.7 billion yuan. So, what is the reason for the recent gold price, how sustainable is the market outlook, and whether it is worth investing, let's take a look.
The international gold price hit a record high.
In the international market, wind data shows that London gold hit a record high on March 6, rising to 2152A high of $24 an ounce, ** at 2147$975 an ounce, up 096%；This variety has been performing strongly since mid-February with very impressive gains.
COMEX *** has also been continuous in recent days, hitting a new high, wind data shows that as of March 6, COMEX *** reported 2156$5 an ounce, and rose as high as 2160 intraday$7 ounce high.
Recently, Citi analysts said in a report that they expect a 25% chance that the gold price will reach a record $2,300 per ounce in the second half of the year. In fact, their base is still $2,150 and reiterates the "unknowns" that will reach $3,000 over the next 12-16 months, which they describe as a "recession hedge" for developed markets, and are increasingly seeing the tailwinds from the uncertainty in the US in November.
The domestic spot and the market rose sharply.
A number of ** stocks also rose sharply.
At the same time, the domestic market gold price also moved strongly and set a new record high. For example, on March 6, the Shanghai ** Exchange au9999** Spot opening price 49809 yuan gram, which once broke through the historic high of 500 yuan gram in the intraday, rose to 50399 yuan gram, the variety ** reported 49976 yuan grams, the transaction amount reached 555.7 billion yuan.
Recently, many domestic brands of pure gold jewelry have **, you see, Chow Tai Fook official website on March 6 released gold price data show that pure gold (jewelry, ornaments) gold price has risen to 650 yuan; According to the data on Chow Sang Sang's official website, the selling price of pure gold jewelry per gram reached 651 yuan.
In the domestic market, the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange also hit a new high on March 7, reporting 50350 yuan gram, in recent trading days**.
On the A** market, the stock prices of many ** stocks have risen sharply. As of March 6, the share price of Zhongrun Resources, which is engaged in the development of non-ferrous metals and other minerals, has risen recently, and has risen sharply on March 5 and March 6 respectively. 61%, the increase has reached 26 since March54%。On the evening of March 6, the company issued the "** Abnormal Transaction Fluctuation Announcement", saying that the company's current business situation is normal, and there have been no major changes in the internal and external business environment, but there is a risk of debt overdue.
Also, since March, Shandong's **stock price**1360%, CICC** share price rose by 1017%。
At the same time, since March, Zijin Mining has risen by 831%, Lao Fengxiang rose by 74%。
Everbright believes that the main reason for the rapid increase is the loosening of the Fed's liquidity expectations and the decline in U.S. bond interest rates. In the short term, the swing in interest rate cut expectations may bring high volatility in gold prices. However, in terms of trend, the U.S. economy is cooling, the supply of U.S. bonds is falling, and the interest rate cut cycle is still expected to start, which means that the U.S. bond interest rate has a strong downward trend, opening up the gold price space. In addition, the frequent occurrence of geopolitical conflicts, the swing of the US dollar credit system, and the rising demand for safe haven in the first year will promote the continuous purchase of gold by central banks and enter the process of "de-dollarization", which will become the support for gold prices in the medium and long term.
A number of **ETFs**, all sizes**.
At a time when international and domestic gold prices continue to be the same, the ETF that has been consolidating has also started a round of rally in recent days.
Wind data shows that since March, Yongying CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong ** Industry ** ETF and ChinaAMC CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong ** Industry ** ETF have risen in the secondary market respectively. 36%。These ETFs mainly invest in listed companies in the industry.
At the same time, in terms of commodity ETFs, CCB, Wells Fargo, Tianhong, Bank of China, Harvest, Nanfang, and GF's Shanghai Gold ETF (these ** mainly invest** assets in the Shanghai ** exchange physical** contract), Bosera, Qianhai Open Source, Cathay Pacific, Huaan, ICBC, Huaxia, E Fund and other ** ETFs (mainly investing in **spot contracts and other ** varieties listed on the Shanghai ** Exchange) have also risen recently. Around 8%.
If you look at the performance of the past year, many **ETFs have risen even more considerably, such as Cathay **ETF, Bosera **ETF, and Huaan **ETF have risen by 18 in the past year50% or above; There are also a number of ** ETFs and Shanghai gold ETFs, which have risen by % in the past year.
As of March 6, the latest scale of Huaan **ETF is 146$8.6 billion; There are also Bosera ** ETF and E Fund ** ETF, with a scale of 79 respectively9.7 billion yuan, 53$3.7 billion; In addition, the size of the Cathay ** ETF has also reached 22$8.1 billion.
A large public offering company said that it includes the triple attributes of commodities, currencies and finance, and its changes mainly come from the investment demand driven by the real interest rate of U.S. bonds, as well as the demand for safe haven and the central bank's gold purchase brought about by "de-dollarization". The short-term gold price may fluctuate at a high level, but there is support in the medium to long term. Individual investors are more suitable to participate in investment with the help of public offerings, such products generally take ** or ** derivatives as the investment target, passive products mainly include **ETF and **stock ETF on the market, **ETF connection ** over-the-counter **, and actively managed products are mainly QDII ***
A number of public offerings are optimistic about the performance of the market outlook.
For the market outlook, Liu Tingyu, manager of Yongying Stock ETF, believes that the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in January hinted at the possibility of subsequent interest rate cuts, and the Fed's interest rate cuts may become an important driving force for follow-up. In addition, factors such as the strong demand for gold purchases by the central bank and private gold purchases may continue to catalyze gold prices for a certain period of time in the future, and at the same time, the global geopolitical disturbances in 2024 and the frequent geopolitical risks in the Middle East also provide hedging demand for the market.
Huaan** Index and Quantitative Investment Department said that in the environment of interest rate cut cycle and global uncertainty, it remains optimistic about 2024**. First, as inflation gradually approaches the Fed's 2% target, the Fed may enter a major cycle of interest rate cuts in 2024. Second, global central bank gold purchases continued, and the People's Bank of China purchased gold for 14 consecutive months, supporting the marginal pricing of ** demand. Third, there are frequent risk events, including geopolitical risks in the Middle East and overseas banking risks.
Cathay said, from a fundamental point of view, the market for the Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations continue to decline in the near future, short-term negative factors are gradually landing, although the short-term gold price may maintain a high range, but in the medium term, the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates within the year, "inflation falling + economic rolling alternate downward movement" is good for gold prices. In recent years, geopolitical risk events have occurred frequently, and the 2024 global leadership election in many regions may increase market uncertainty as a whole, and safe-haven demand will also bring some medium-term support to gold prices. The pace of global central bank purchases continues, with pricing pivots picking up. Internally, the premium between Shanghai gold and international gold continued to fall to a reasonable range; In the long run, the overall trend of the global economic recession, the rising demand for additional purchases by global central banks, and the trend of global "de-dollarization" make ** expected to become a new round of pricing anchor.
*: China ** Daily.
Editor: Xiaoya.