On March 5, China's Premier Li Qiang mentioned the importance of real estate work in the work report, and emphasized measures to optimize real estate policies, resolve risks and build new models.
Jia Kang, founding director of the Huaxia Institute of New Supply Economics, said that this shows that the company attaches great importance to real estate issues. He believes that China's real estate will not collapse, which is a basic judgment that can be used as a major premise. Under this premise, how to solve troubles, prevent crises and guide the real estate market in different cities to get out of the recovery process has become the focus of attention.
Jia Kang suggested that in the process of actively guiding the recovery of the real estate market in different cities, some restrictive measures of administrative means should be revoked as much as possible to reduce unnecessary intervention.
He also pointed out that the "optimization of real estate policies" mentioned in this year's work report mainly refers to dynamic optimization. A number of real estate optimization policies have been introduced over the past few years, and the dynamic optimization of these policies now needs to be addressed.
Jia Kang believes that the issue of supporting the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems mentioned in this year's work report is also very important. He said that this is to boost the confidence of the private economy and improve expectations.
In terms of building a new model, the work report mentions that it is necessary to adapt to the development trend of new urbanization and the changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market, and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development. Jia Kang believes that this means that it is necessary to optimize the dual-track overall planning model of "security rail" and "market rail" in the real estate field, and pay attention to the construction of affordable housing and meet the rigid housing needs of residents and diversified improved housing needs.
In addition, Jia Kang also mentioned that it is not appropriate to discuss too much about the expansion of real estate tax reform, but this does not mean that the general direction of reform has changed.
For the real estate market in 2024, Jia Kang emphasized the differences between different cities, and corresponding policies should be formulated according to the specific situation. It is necessary for first-tier cities to reduce administrative restrictions and play the role of a weather vane; Provincial capitals and hotspot second-tier cities need to formulate a more clear policy for one city; Third- and fourth-tier cities need to adapt to the buyer's market situation, digest inventory, and form a policy mix suitable for their own recovery process.
Jia Kang pointed out that the market demand for housing still exists, and the key is how to boost it. He believes that rigid demand has decreased, but the demand potential in terms of improved demand and structural optimization is still considerable. Therefore, in the process of guiding the recovery of the real estate market, it is necessary to focus on improving expectations and adjusting the policy mix to meet the needs of different levels.
Overall, the outlook for the real estate market in 2024 is positive, and we will continue to optimize policies, mitigate risks, and accelerate the construction of new models. Between different cities, it is necessary to formulate corresponding policies according to local conditions to promote market recovery and stable development.