Recently, a number of pig companies have released their sales in February, and the results are joyful and worrying. Investors are waiting to see if the 2024 pig cycle can reach an inflection point.
Judging from the data, some pig companies have performed eye-catchingly, while others have been affected by the "cold wind".
According to the sales briefing of Muyuan shares, the sales of live pigs from January to February reached 10.54 million, and the sales revenue was 1663.5 billion yuan. Compared to the same period last year, sales increased by 193%, sales revenue increased by 136%。
Wen's share sold 192 pigs in February210,000 heads, with an income of 333.8 billion yuan, down 2712% and 2133%。However, the cumulative sales revenue of pigs from January to February this year was 758.1 billion yuan, an increase of 2347%。
New Hope's performance was a little less than satisfactory. The company disclosed that it sold 130 live pigs in February880,000 heads, income 183.6 billion yuan, down 2412% and 1496%。New Hope explained that the main reason for the decline in commercial pig sales was the impact of the Spring Festival holiday on sales.
Tianbang food is also facing a less optimistic situation, with the number of commercial pigs sold in February being 40120,000 heads, sales revenue of 44,247500,000 yuan, down 4281% and 3080%。The company said the decline in sales was mainly due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday.
In addition, the sales of live pigs in February of Dabeinong, Jinxinong, Dongrui and other enterprises also showed a downward trend.
Although the sales volume fluctuates, the average price of commercial pigs in these pig companies is generally **.
Muyuan's commercial pigs ended a four-month decline in January and February, compared with 3 in December last year13%。The average sales price of Wen's shares in February was 1429 yuan kg, 385%。The average sales price of commercial pigs in February was 1386 yuan kg, compared with ** 421%。The average sales price of Tianbang food in February was 1453 yuan kg (the average price of commercial fat pigs is 13.)50 yuan kg), compared with ** 1009%, which has been declining for 5 consecutive months.
The average sales price of commercial pigs in Jinxinong, Dabeinong and Dongrui shares also appeared**.
However, despite the divergence in sales, investors are still expecting an inflection point in the pig cycle in 2024.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently issued the "Implementation Plan for the Regulation and Control of Pig Production Capacity (Revised in 2024)", which adjusts the national target for the normal number of fertile sows from 41 million to 39 million. This adjustment has laid a policy foundation for the further reduction of pig breeding capacity.
Dongxing ** believes that the continuous accumulation of production capacity will bring about a cycle inflection point in pig prices, and it is expected that the first half of 2024 may see an inflection point, and pig prices are expected to improve comprehensively in the second half of the year. Funeng** also said that if the production capacity clearance effect is good, a new round of pig cycle will be opened, and the range of pig prices can be judged according to the clearance effect.
However, Minsheng ** pointed out that 2024 will be an important turning point for the pig breeding industry and the entire pig cycle. In the new cyclical normal, profits will no longer be the only factor driving farming decisions, and all types of entities will be affected by expectations. Investors need to adjust the previous method of valuation based solely on the growth of slaughter, and profitability is a necessary prerequisite for whether production capacity and slaughter volume can be realized.
Huaxi ** believes that the situation of oversupply in the short term has not been significantly improved, and the pig price does not have the basis for a large **, and there may be a low ** in the later stage.
Overall, the sales situation of pig enterprises is differentiated, and investors are expecting an inflection point in the pig cycle in 2024. However, investors still need to be cautious and do a good job of risk control when participating in the pig cycle sector.