The Philippines, a country on the front lines of the South China Sea, has made frequent military moves to seek greater benefits for itself in this rough sea. But what role can the Philippines really play in this great power game? Is it willing to be the powder keg that keeps its **Marcos Jr. awake at night?
The Philippines' South China Sea Strategy: Pulling the Tiger's Skin to Make a Big Banner.
The Philippines' recent actions show a clear strategic intent to try to put pressure on China in the South China Sea by emphasizing the U.S.-Philippines alliance. Philippine Ambassador to the United States Jose Romualdez's remarks directly point to this strategy: "Once China uses force, it will first clean up the Philippines in the South China Sea." Behind this assessment is the Philippines' concern about the current situation and its attempt to support itself through the power of the United States.
However, the Philippines** seems to ignore a key question – are the U.S. strategic objectives in the South China Sea fully aligned with the Philippines? The U.S. focus in the Asia-Pacific region is to contain China's rise, not necessarily to protect the Philippines' maritime rights. Therefore, this strategy of the Philippines is fraught with risks.
As the Philippines' **, Marcos Jr. needs to find a balance between domestic and foreign pressures. On the one hand, he needs to maintain good relations with the United States and ensure that he can get support if necessary; On the other hand, he cannot completely ignore the relationship with China, which is an important economic partner of the Philippines. This balance in the bilateral relationship, for Marcos Jr., is a war without gunpowder and requires extreme wisdom and strategy.
On the South China Sea issue, Marcos Jr.'s actions show his intention to change the situation by increasing the involvement of external forces. However, there is a big question mark over whether this strategy will succeed. Because if the situation in the South China Sea gets out of control as a result, the Philippines may become the biggest victim.
The situation in the South China Sea is complex and sensitive, and any small-scale conflict has the potential to escalate into a larger confrontation. Against this backdrop, the Philippines' actions are undoubtedly adding fuel to the fire. Although the Philippines says it is trying to avoid escalating the situation, it is actually constantly challenging China's bottom line while emphasizing the U.S.-Philippine alliance and conducting frequent joint military exercises.
For China, sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea are core national interests that brook no challenge. Therefore, this strategy of the Philippines could lead to a more complex and dangerous situation for itself.
In this international game, Marcos Jr. is undoubtedly the one who is under great pressure. On the one hand, he needs to ensure that the country's sovereignty and maritime rights and interests are not violated; On the other hand, he also needs to avoid pushing the Philippines into a conflict that could erupt. This double pressure makes it difficult for him to sleep every night.