Lithium carbonate ** fell like a waterfall, stirring up thousands of waves in the market. At the same time, the battery cell** is also walking on thin ice, all the way down to the bottom. The adjustment of the lithium battery cycle is coming as scheduled, which seems to be a thrilling adventure, but in the long river of history, it is like a wave on the beach, fleeting and unremarkable. The lithium battery industry always seems to be repeating the same story, lacking novelty, but full of endless variables.
Recently, the "roller coaster" journey of lithium salt has been up and down like a roller coaster, falling from 600,000 tons at its peak to about 120,000 tons today, and the market has fallen below 90,000 tons. This scene can't help but remind people of three years ago, when the ** of lithium carbonate was still firmly at the level of less than 50,000 tons. Time flies, but now things are different. Many people may think that the rapid growth of lithium battery demand in recent years is the key to promoting the rise of lithium salt**. After all, a spark can start a prairie fire, and the demand is as vast as the sea of stars. At the same time, the cost line of some new lithium salt production capacity has increased significantly, and it is expected that some of the cost lines will be higher than 200,000 tons, and many experts and bigwigs at the beginning of the year also generally believe that the reasonable center of lithium carbonate ** is about 200,000 tons. However, as a typical cyclical product, the ups and downs of lithium salt** are far beyond simple cost pricing or supply-demand balance pricing. To understand this phenomenon in depth, we need to go back to the time when lithium carbonate** reached 600,000 tons. At that time, demand was expected to surge, and the elasticity of supply was relatively insufficient. In the context of the imbalance between supply and demand and the expectation of continuation, market sentiment and spot speculation have added fuel to the fire, driving the "over-rise" of lithium carbonate**. This is much higher than the supply-demand equilibrium, and is more like marginal pricing where the highest bidder bids. In the same way, the current growth rate of lithium battery demand is decreasing, while the supply of lithium salts is gradually released. Under the "expectation" of oversupply of lithium salts, market sentiment and the amplification effect of the market have made lithium carbonate all the way. It is believed that this ** will further "overfall", and this inevitable **lower limit is also destined to be much lower than the balance of supply and demand**, which may be determined by the bidder with the lowest tolerance. Essentially, "over-rise" and "over-fall" are two sides of the same coin, two extreme manifestations of the same thing. As a typical cyclical product, lithium salt** generally follows a rule: either to the extreme high, or to the extreme low, rarely stay in the middle state too much. However, no matter what goes up or down, it will not completely fall out of the middle of the supply-demand balance. Specifically, according to cost pricing or supply-demand balance pricing, the reasonable pivot of lithium prices at this stage may be around 200,000 tons. However, it is difficult to maintain a stable level at this level, because the global lithium salt market is expected to be active on the demand side, and the supply side is inelastic, and supply and demand are easily mismatched. Coupled with the impetus of market sentiment, it leads to greater volatility. Especially at both ends of the high and low positions, the cognitive conflict is more significant, and the game is more intense. Overall, the rollercoaster journey of lithium salt** is the result of multiple factors such as market supply and demand, cost, and sentiment. Investors need to remain rational and prudent in order to cope with this complex and volatile market environment. The lithium battery industry, after wind, frost, rain and snow, is like a magnificent historical scroll, and every cycle has witnessed the rise and fall of the industry. Lithium prices are just the tip of the iceberg, and there is a more complex market logic behind them. In 2010, the pilot of the new energy automobile industry, like the rising sun, brought the first ray of dawn to the lithium battery industry and announced the arrival of the first boom peak. However, due to the lack of policy follow-up, the industry fell into its first trough in 2012-2014, as if it was in a fog and the road ahead was uncertain. Time flies, in 2015, the stimulation of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy made the lithium battery industry glow with new vitality and ushered in the second boom peak. However, the good times did not last long, with the decline of the subsidy policy and the delay in the issuance of subsidies, the industry's funds were generally tight, and the mourning was everywhere. In 2018-2019, the lithium battery industry once again fell into the darkest moment, as if shrouded in darkness. However, the dawn always comes after darkness. Since 2020, the acceleration of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the beginning of the energy storage industry have brought the third spring to the lithium battery industry. Demand and supply resonate, the capital market is enthusiastic, and the lithium battery industry has ushered in an unprecedented highlight moment. However, the boom must fall, and from the beginning of 2023, the highlight moments of this round of the cycle are beginning to peak. The growth rate of lithium battery demand has gradually slowed down, while the supply has skyrocketed like a flood, and supply and demand have gradually become unbalanced. The industrial chain has been declining, and the lowest lithium iron phosphate battery has fallen to 0Around 4 yuan wh, the cold wind in the market is chilling. The cyclical fluctuations of the lithium battery industry are not only affected by policy factors, but also driven by market demand; There are not only the general laws of industry development, but also the interference of personality factors. However, in any case, cyclical fluctuations are the fate of the lithium battery industry and cannot be avoided. For the lithium battery industry, every cycle of ups and downs is an opportunity for experience and growth. Winter is cold and windy, but the real winter is not yet here. The lithium battery industry chain is just like the transformation of this season, although it has been declining, but the spring of industry change has been quietly brewing. In the face of the baptism of the cycle, those who follow the trend will survive, and those who go against the current will eventually be eliminated. Looking back on the past, the lithium battery industry chain has forged a solid cost tolerance due to huge capital expenditures. From raw materials to high-end equipment, to cell manufacturing, every link embodies the sweat and wisdom of the industry. Because of this, even when considering cash flow, ** can appear to be at ease, even at the expense of short-term interests to seek market share. This kind of bottomless competition makes the battery cell ** confusing, and the lower limit is elusive. However, it is this disorderly competition that has laid the groundwork for the industry reshuffle. In this cold winter, those production capacity that lacks core competitiveness will be ruthlessly eliminated like dead branches and leaves, and enterprises that can survive the harsh winter will usher in the dawn of spring and share the market dividends of the next cycle. The lithium battery industry is moving from the barbaric growth of the past to a new era of high-quality development. The concentration of the industry will continue to increase, and the market share, especially the high-quality market share, will become the key to competition. Just as the seasons change, although the snow has passed and the cold is pressing, the real winter has not yet arrived. We need not be afraid, because every cold winter will be followed by a more splendid spring. Lithium batteries