The United States has been trying to create a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. And now, as the United States provokes the Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States has begun to tirelessly talk about the outbreak of the "Taiwan Strait War" and talk about the US military intervention plan. Recently, the situation in the Taiwan Strait has become more tense with the collision between the Taiwan Provincial Coast Guard and a mainland fishing boat.
Business Insider put forward a point that the Chinese People's Liberation Army may need 300,000-400,000 troops to participate in the war in the Taiwan Strait, and "may eventually mobilize 2 million people, including the army, police and militia" to ensure the reunification of Taiwan Province. This view believes that Chinese mainland has learned some lessons by observing the Russian-Ukrainian war, and this strategy may be applied to the war in the Taiwan Strait.
Judging from this speculation, the analysis of the United States ** does not seem to be particularly accurate. They initially thought that a reunification of Taiwan Province might require 300,000 people, but eventually put forward the idea of mobilizing 2 million people. Such a ** is based on the assumption that the Taiwan military may mobilize 4 million people in wartime, and this figure is derived from the model of the US military. They anticipate that the fighting will be brutal, with the possibility of fierce street fighting, fierce battles between the two sides for each building, and Taiwanese forces may choose to resist rather than surrender.
The United States believes that Chinese mainland can learn something from Russia's lessons in order to deal with a possible protracted war in the Taiwan Strait. In the eyes of the United States, a war in the Taiwan Strait could turn into a long-term war, so Chinese mainland may need to mobilize all its forces to achieve the goal of reunifying Taiwan Province. Not only that, but the United States** also studied the time required for the war and concluded that without external interference, Chinese mainland could be reunified within 90 days.
But without military intervention, Taiwan's military may not be able to hold out for long, and Chinese mainland may be able to smoothly achieve reunification. The specific plan they put forward included bombing first, destroying important targets, and then using missiles to strike at the vital points of the Taiwan authorities. However, this view fails to understand the strategic philosophy of the Chinese People's Liberation Army.
However, is it really necessary for 2 million people to participate in the war? This may not be the case. First, the U.S. military believes that the Taiwanese military is capable of mobilizing 4 million people in wartime, but this argument is problematic in itself because it simply calculates the number of people who have served in the army, and does not consider whether the Taiwanese people can support such a large-scale mobilization.
The mobilization of 4 million people is equivalent to throwing one-sixth of Taiwan's total population into the war, which would almost collapse Taiwanese society. If Taiwan adopts such a war mobilization plan, it will deal a serious blow to the economy, and regardless of the outcome of the war, the Taiwanese people will pay a huge price.
In contrast, Chinese mainland has a population of 1.4 billion, and mobilizing 2 million people is not difficult. The current number of active troops is already more than 2 million, and there are enough reservists, and the militia does not even need to participate in the fighting.
There may be a certain degree of exaggeration on the part of the United States, and the outcome of a war in the Taiwan Strait is likely to be far simpler than they imagined, and the actual situation is far more complicated than they have described.
If we simply compare the strength, we also have enough strength. But if China needs to mobilize 2 million people, how much will the U.S. military spend? At present, the US ** team has been quite stretched in terms of global deployment, and the ground forces can hardly quickly enter the battle, and there is almost no other choice but to send ships and military aircraft. It is estimated that the US military will not send troops at all, because everyone understands that a war between China and the United States will trigger a world war, and the United States will not be able to win this war at all. The United States is a pragmatic country and will not easily fall into a doomed war.
We are ready for a decisive battle, but what about the United States? The United States is just trying to incite the Taiwan authorities, and they don't care what the final result is, because it is not the Americans who suffer, so they don't have to worry at all.
In the war in the Taiwan Strait, China's mobilization of 2 million troops was just a cover, and we pursued reunification, not mass destruction. The Taiwan army does not have a strength advantage at all, and once the squadron successfully lands, the Taiwan army's psychology will collapse, and it can only choose to surrender. Instead of resisting, it is better to let go of ** and start a new life.
The United States is trying to provoke a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, just to seek the benefits of the war, in the name of interference, just like in the Russia-Ukraine war. But they chose the wrong target, China is not Russia, it is not Palestine. The United States does not dare to make a move against Iran, let alone go to war with China, which has the world's largest industry and mobilization capabilities.
If the United States insists on provoking a war with China, it must be prepared to lose its global hegemony. China sees reunification as its goal at any cost, but is the United States ready to fight China at any cost? The United States must realize that no matter whether it wins or loses, it is inevitable that it will lose its hegemony, and that victory is only a smaller loss, but if it fails, the United States may become a third-rate country.