In his annual state of the nation address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 29, Putin warned the West that Russia has the power to strike its territorial targets and that it is the threat from the West that poses a "real" risk of possible nuclear war. The West has also taken the opportunity to hype that the "Russian documents" they have obtained indicate that Russia may lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. However, many Western experts believe that the possibility of the Russian army using nuclear ** in Ukraine is still low.
Sink three cruisers and use nuclear weapons?
In his State of the Union address, Putin said that Russia's strategic nuclear forces are in a state of full combat readiness. The consequences of interfering in the affairs of the Russian Federation will be more tragic than ever, "potentially leading to large-scale conflicts, including the use of nuclear weapons," adding that "Russia's adversaries must remember that Russia has the ability to strike targets on its territory."
The Financial Times published an article on February 28 hyping Russia to "lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons". The article claims that the classified documents describe the threshold for the use of tactical nuclear ** by the Russian army, which is lower than the threshold for the use of nuclear ** that Russia publicly admits. The documents are 29 secret Russian military documents drafted between 2008 and 2014, including exercise scenarios and presentations by naval officers discussing operational principles for the use of nuclear weapons. The criteria for the potential use of nuclear ** range from the enemy's invasion of Russian territory to more specific triggers, for example, the destruction of 20% of Russia's strategic missile submarines.
Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Berlin Center for Russian and Eurasia, said it was the first time such a document had been seen in the public domain. "They show that if the desired result cannot be achieved by conventional means, then the operational threshold for the use of nuclear ** is quite low. ”
According to the British media, a report on the training of naval officers outlines broader criteria for a potential nuclear strike, including an enemy invasion of Russian territory, the defeat of the forces responsible for ensuring security in the border area, or the imminent use of conventional ** attacks by the enemy. The slide summarizes the threshold as a combination of factors that "will irreparably lead to their inability to stop the aggression of the main enemy" as a "critical situation for Russia." Other potential conditions include the destruction of 20% of Russia's strategic missile submarines, 30% of its nuclear-powered attack submarines, 3 or more cruisers, 3 airfields, or simultaneous strikes on the main and reserve coastal command centers.
According to the report, the Russian army is also expected to use tactical nuclear ** for a wide range of objectives, including dispelling the idea of some countries committing aggression or escalating military conflicts, deterring ongoing aggression, preventing Russian forces from losing combat or losing territory, and making the Russian navy "more effective."
According to British media, Putin said last year that Russia's nuclear doctrine allows for two possible thresholds for the use of nuclear **: retaliation for the enemy's first nuclear strike, and "the adversary uses conventional **, but the existence of Russia as a state is threatened." Putin added that neither criterion is likely to be met, and dismissed public calls from hardliners to lower the threshold.
Upgrading for downgrade?
Although the documents date back more than a decade, Western experts claim that they are still relevant to the current Russian military doctrine, according to the Financial Times. Although Russia has the sole authority to launch a first nuclear strike, the low threshold for the use of tactical nuclear weapons specified in the document is in line with what some Western observers call the doctrine of "escalation for de-escalation".
Under this strategy, a tactical nuclear ** can be used to prevent Russia from getting involved in a large-scale war, especially one in which the United States may intervene, the report said. Using so-called "fear inducements", Moscow will seek to end the conflict on its own terms, by shocking its adversaries with the early use of small nuclear **, or by threatening to do so to ensure a solution. William Albuquerque, director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: "They talk about 'waking up' the adversary — waking the adversary from the dream of early victories through the use of nuclear ......."They believe that the best way to do this is to use so-called lower 'equivalent' nuclear ** at a much lower combat level to prevent escalation. ”
According to the report, Ukraine believes that Putin's nuclear threat persuaded the United States and other allies not to arm Kyiv more decisively in the early stages of the conflict, because NATO's advanced ** could have turned the situation around and benefited Ukraine. However, Albuquerque believes that the threshold for Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine may be higher than the use of nuclear weapons against the United States, because Ukraine does not have its own nuclear capabilities and does not have the ability to launch a ground offensive of the same scale. Albuquerque said that the Russian leader believes that a nuclear strike on the United States may sober up the other side, but once a nuclear strike on Ukraine, it may escalate the conflict and lead to direct intervention by the United States and Britain.
The U.S. "War Zone"** also said that concerns about the circumstances under which Russia might launch a nuclear strike, especially when it involves the use of low-yield tactical nuclear weapons**, are nothing new. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, concerns about the willingness of the Russian authorities to adopt a so-called "escalation to de-escalation" strategy, which would include a limited nuclear strike, have become more apparent.
According to the report, the United States generally believes that Russia has as many as 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons in recent years. This is in addition to its strategic nuclear **. It is understood that the Russian army's tactical nuclear stockpile includes a variety of air, sea and ground launches, including but not limited to short-range ballistic missiles, aerial bombs, torpedoes and artillery shells, and even nuclear mines.
Experts are skeptical
Even many Western experts have expressed doubts about Russia's statement that it has lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. Jack Watling, a senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, said the materials were intended to train Russian forces in response to situations where nuclear ** could be used, not to develop a rulebook for the use of nuclear **. "At this level, the requirement for all units is that ensuring the use of nuclear ** in the course of a conflict is a credible option for policymakers. Watling added, "This (the use of nuclear **) will be a political decision." ”
And the Warzone article says other experts say the "classified documents" that the FT has access to appear important, but they caution against drawing too many conclusions from the reports so far. "Unfortunately, the FT does not provide these documents, so it is difficult to understand who produced them and how high they have authority. "It is difficult to determine the operability of these nuclear thresholds, whether they are really embedded in Russia's nuclear strategy, or whether they reflect the views and work of military officers," said Hans Christensen, director of the Nuclear Information Program at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). He said some scenarios are equally difficult to figure out, for example, whether the threshold for using the sinking of three cruisers as a trigger for nuclear ** is a separate scenario or part of a broader scenario. He said that it is impossible to imagine that all it takes for Russia to use nuclear ** is that an adversary sank 3 cruisers. Christensen added that Ukraine sank the Russian cruiser Moskva in the Black Sea in 2022.
Christensen further stressed that the scenarios described in the FT article, even those with the potential for an "escalate to de-escalate" strategy, involve a response to an attack on Russian soil. Past discussions of "escalation to de-escalation" have often revolved around Russia's use of this strategy to prevent the irretrievable failure of the country's foreign intervention.
War Zone" said Andrei Baklitsky, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research on Mass Destruction**, made a similar comment on platform X, "Russia held a ...... of 'training demonstrations' for Russian naval officers."But who made the presentation? For what purpose? Who is it for? We don't know. ”
Zhang Xuefeng, an expert on Chinese affairs, told the Global Times that the West is trying to portray Russia as a "nuclear monster" through the narrative that Russia will use nuclear weapons at any time, scandalize Russia's national image, and sow discord between Russia and other countries. At the same time, it is also to put the responsibility for Russia's use of nuclear ** due to the West's direct involvement in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on Russia in advance. In this matter, the focus of the West ** is somewhat off, and they should be concerned about how to avoid overstimulating Russia in order to prevent the outbreak of a nuclear war in Europe.