**: Market information.
On 6 March, business activity in the eurozone showed signs of recovery last month, with the eurozone's main services sector expanding for the first time since July last year, offsetting a further contraction in the manufacturing sector, a survey showed. The final Eurozone Markit composite PMI for February rose from 47 in January9 jumped to 492, higher than the initial value and the expected 489。This is the best reading since June, but still below the 50 mark, which is seen as a good indicator of the overall economic health. Among them, the final value of the PMI in the services sector increased from 48 in January4 to 502, higher than the initial value and the expected 50. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Commerzbank Hamburg, said: "The services sector is likely to start 2024 better than expected. Although the growth rate is modest, it is complemented by positive developments in other PMI sub-indicators. However, Jens Eisenschmidt, chief European economist at Morgan Stanley, said: "Even with divergent views on timing, the ECB's spokesperson acknowledged that a rate cut is coming. The March meeting will be an opportunity to change the wording of the statement to make that clear. ”
Separately, Eurostat released its January producer** index (PPI) report, which showed that PPI fell by 8 percent year-on-year in January6%, a larger than expected decrease of -81%, down from -10 in December6% slowed to the ninth consecutive month of decline. The PPI accelerated its decline to -0 in January9%, well above expectations of -01%, the largest decline since May 2023. Energy** is the main reason for the continued decline in PPI. Excluding energy**, PPI fell 1 year on year in January5%, 02%。On a year-on-year basis, energy ** fell the most, reaching 213%。In addition, intermediate goods fell by 58%, capital goods (such as machinery, tools or buildings), consumer durables, and non-durable consumer goods respectively1% and 2%. On a month-on-month basis, the biggest decline was still in energy**. Eurozone Energy***29%, intermediate products ***02%, consumer durables** down 02%, capital goods month-on-month **06%, non-durable consumer goods ***32%。
Today's data to watch out for are Germany's seasonally adjusted ** account for January, Eurozone retail sales for January, US ADP employment change for February, US wholesale inventories for January final and US JOLTS job openings for January.
U.S. Dollar Index. The U.S. dollar index fell yesterday, refreshing an eight-day low, and is now trading at 103Around 80. In addition to the rising expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut in June, which continued to weigh on the pair, the weak economic data released by the United States during the session also weighed on the pair to a certain extent. U.S. factory orders fell sharply in January from the previous month, the biggest drop since April 2020, the data showed. Focus on 104 today30 pressure situation, below the support at 103Around 30.
Euro US Dollar.
The euro consolidated yesterday, closing slightly higher on the daily line, and the exchange rate is now trading at 10850 nearby. The weakening of the dollar index on the back of rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in June and weak economic data was the main reason for the euro's rally. The postponement of the expectation of the first rate cut by the ECB also provided some support to the pair. Focus on 1 todayPressure situation around 0950, with lower support at 10750 nearby.
GBP, USD.
The pound rose yesterday, updating a 5-week high, and is now trading at 12690 nearby. In addition to the continued decline in the dollar index under the pressure of rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in June and weak economic data, which provided strong support for the pound, the market's expectation that the Bank of England will not be able to cut interest rates as sharply this year as previously expected, also provided some support to the pair. However, weak economic data from the UK during the session limited the upside. Focus on 1 todayPressure situation around 2800, with lower support at 12600 nearby.