Experts' judgment on China's economy is relatively pessimistic.
This pessimism also infected me, however, a headline from the mainstream ** caused me to reflect.
The original title was:In October, the national economy continued to recover and improve, and the economic operation was generally stable.
This is the positioning of Liu Aihua from the Department of Comprehensive Economic Statistics, which is of course authoritative.
How good is it exactly?Will it be different from the data I see?After looking at it, the data has not changed, and the angle of thinking about the problem is different, so the conclusion is different.
In the month, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4 percent year-on-year6%, 01 percentage point;Month-on-month growth of 039%。
Corresponding to the year-on-year growth of last year's weak growth, I don't think this set of data is convincing, but after all, it also increased by 039%, it can't be said that it is not good, there is nothing wrong with Liu Aihua's positioning, but this "overall stable economic operation" is too stable.
In the month, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4,333.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76%, 2 percent faster than the previous month1 percentage point;Month-on-month growth of 007%。
Compared with last year's consumption, this growth is still the same conclusion, which is too stable, but it does not affect the end of Director Liu's "continuous recovery and improvement", after all, the month-on-month growth is also growing, an increase of 007%。Let's take a look at the data of Double 11.
-In October, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) 419409 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29%, down 0 from January to September2 percentage points.
The national fixed asset investment fell month-on-month, if it is because of the decline in real estate investment, it should be a good thing, the oversupply of real estate is an indisputable fact, continue to invest, sales can not recover, is in the superposition of debt ratio. This one is down month-on-month, but it's really good.
In the month, the total import and export of goods was 3,541.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 09%。Among them, exports were 1,973.6 billion yuan, down 31%；imports were 1,568.1 billion yuan, an increase of 64%。Imports and exports were offset, with a surplus of 405.5 billion yuan.
This year's ** has been blocked by the "de-risking" policy of the United States, which is not easy to come by.
In January, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas across the country was 50%, unchanged from the previous month.
If this data is credible, it can be said that it is too good, employment is the top priority of any country, what public ownership, private ownership, employment can not be kept what system, April data shows that the national urban surveyed unemployment rate is 52%。So, the unemployment rate is recovering, and theoretically, employment is closely related to the state of private enterprises, does this indicate that the private economy is also improving?The problem is that the youth unemployment rate is not counted, and the youth unemployment rate was high in July
In January, the national household consumption** (CPI) fell by 02%, down 01%。
Both of these figures have been smooth.
These two data are fast downwards and can define deflation, and fast upwards can define inflation;Both deflation and inflation are pressures on ordinary households, but if China's economy wants to recover quickly, an extremely crude choice is that it must be inflationary.
After reading these data, the general feeling is that Director Liu's conclusion is completely correct, if our personal feelings are not good, it is that we have too many expectations for the year, life is like this, hope and disappointment, often proportional.
So, there are also three personal feelings:
First, China's economy must break through Director Liu's period of steady.
Because the economy is dynamic, if you don't advance, you will retreat.
We cannot be satisfied with the growth rate of the whole line in one decimal place, the demand of the people, the expansion and reproduction of enterprises, and the various expenditures of the people, especially the generalized fiscal deficit, which is related to the livelihood of the people, and the social security system, that is, the improvement of redistribution such as medical care, education, and pension, all need the support of the speed of development. Therefore, stability is good, and development is king.
We don't have much time left for many things, such as: the arrival of the old age.
Second, the force of policies must withstand the test of reality.
This year's decrees are unprecedented in my life.
It took so much effort in exchange for a "generally stable economic operation", which has to remind people of Lao Tzu's warning: laws and regulations.
Policies focus on real estate, consumption, and debt, which are closely related to financeWhen we talk about theory, we all know what the problems of China's economy are, that it is a non-market-oriented behavior, that it is an inefficient investment choice, that the proportion of residents' income in it is low, and that there is still a large distance between the proportion of fiscal revenue used for people's livelihood and the target. The economy is a real thing, and it will eventually be reflected in the data.
Third, don't let the data become a maze.
There is a sense that data is becoming an art.
The youth unemployment rate is no longer released in August, and the Gini system has long since stopped publishing it, and if the month-on-month ratio is not good, it will be released year-on-year;If the year-on-year period is not good, the month-on-month ratio will be announced;If the month-on-month comparison is not good, simply publish the month, if the month is not good, then publish the month, if it is not good, then do not publish, or change the sample, then, what is the responsibility of statistics?Is it praise, or truth-seeking, and how to play the guiding role of the economy?
Of course, the good and the bad are also mutual, and this year's stability indicates a positive policy next year.
What do you think?