Text |Jin Wei.
In the wave of price cuts, the major new car-making forces announced their February sales data, and due to the Spring Festival holiday, the sales of more than a dozen car companies were negative month-on-month. On the sales list, among them, Wenjie continued to rank first in the sales of new power brands with 21,142 units, down 36% month-on-month, but a significant increase of more than 200% year-on-year. Li Auto ranked second with 20,251 units.
At present, the new car-making forces have formed three echelons of 20,000, 10,000 and 1,000 vehicles, among them, Wenjie has won the monthly sales championship for a consecutive year, and the share price of Cialis has risen, since the low point in February, the share price of Cialis has risen by more than 70%, and the total market value has increased by more than 50 billion. As of March 4**, the share price of Cialis was at 9269 yuan, with a total market value of 139.9 billion.
The sales volume of the question industry can drive the stock price, but it has not yet driven the performance to turn around. According to the performance forecast released at the beginning of the year, the net profit loss of Cialis is 2.1 billion yuan and 2.7 billion yuan, plus the loss amount in the first three years, the loss of Cialis may reach 10 billion.
With Wenjie winning the sales championship for a second time, how far is the profitability of Cialis?
Sailis, a new energy vehicle company and a partner of Huawei's smart car business depth, has cooperated to launch a high-end new energy Wenjie brand, which currently has three models: M5, new M7 and M9.
2023 is known as a major turning point for Wenjie Automobile. In the first half of the year, the M5 and M7 series cars were still tepid, and the monthly sales of the Wenjie series were only a few thousand. In September last year, the sales of the new M7 suddenly became popular, and the delivery exceeded 10,000 units in a single month, which made Yu Chengdong sigh in the circle of friends, "It's not easy to come back to life." Immediately, the market value of Cialis also soared to 100 billion.
One of the reasons for the explosion of the new M7 is that Huawei invested 500 million yuan to upgrade the M7 and equip it with Hongmeng intelligent cockpit 30 and Huawei Ads 20 high-end intelligent driving system, etc. In the past two years, models with core intelligent driving functions have been favored by consumers, and the penetration rate has also increased rapidly.
In January this year, the new energy vehicle companies collectively "stalled", while AITO Wenjie achieved contrarian growth, delivering 32,973 new cars, an increase of 3476%, of which the 24-day single-day delivery exceeded 1,000, becoming the monthly sales champion of a new brand in the Chinese market for the first time. Yu Chengdong said that our estimation of the popularity of the smart car is not conservative, and 'Yu Dazui' has become 'Yu Xiaozui'. “
In February this year, Wenjie continued the trend of hot sales. In terms of sales structure, the M7 is still the core of the sales volume of the company. In February, the sales volume of the M7 reached 18,479 units, accounting for 87% of the overall sales of the company. The other sales volume mainly comes from the M9.
During the Spring Festival this year, Yu Chengdong personally drove the M9 from his hometown in Anhui to Shenzhen, and Yu Chengdong was fined twice for leaving the steering wheel, which triggered a wave of heated discussions about intelligent driving. On February 26, it was officially announced that the M9 had been delivered on a national scale.
From the perspective of product structure, the two-wheel drive of M7 and M9 is gradually formed, and the hidden danger of M7 "fighting alone" is being eliminated.
In addition to the high sales volume, the demand for orders from the company is also strong. According to the official data released by Wenjie, as of March 1, orders for the M7 have exceeded 150,000 units, and the cumulative delivery has exceeded 100,000 unitsCumulative orders for the M9 reached 50,000 units.
In other words, Wenjie still holds a large order of 100,000 vehicles, which can basically ensure that Wenjie can still maintain the delivery performance of 3-40,000 vehicles in a single month after entering March and the second quarter.
The official said that the M5 and M7 intelligent driving models have successively started OTA upgrades, realizing high-speed, high-end intelligent driving in urban areas that do not rely on high-precision maps, not only in the country's high-speed, elevated, and expressway, but also in large and small cities and even urban roads in towns and towns can be used, so that the whole country can be opened, and the more you drive, the better it is.
2024 is expected to be the most competitive year for car companies, after the Spring Festival on February 19, BYD set off a ** war, and then, Tesla, Weilai, Leap, AVATR and other more than 10 brands launched different degrees of discounts, and car companies have started a wave of price cuts. At the same time, traditional car companies such as Geely and Chery continue to release new models, stirring up the market.
On March 1, the Ideal MEGA was officially released, and the 2024 replacement model of the Ideal L series was launched simultaneously. As the first pure electric model of Ideal, MEGA was given high expectations, Li Xiang bluntly said at the press conference: "MEGA will be the next explosive product of Ideal Automobile, and I am confident that it will become the first in sales of more than 500,000." ”
Recently, Zhang Xinghai, chairman of Celis Group, said: "We will continue to iterate and improve, improve at the fastest speed, and meet the needs of all users as much as possible." Let the high-end be more high-end, let the luxury be more luxurious, and make the intelligence more intelligent!”
For the sales crown position of the questioning world, the major car companies are "eyeing the tiger", and whether the sales crown position can be sustained depends on the follow-up efforts of the questioning industry.
In January this year, Cialis released a performance forecast, and the company's operating income is expected to be 35.5 billion yuan to 36.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 409% to 702%；The net profit loss was 2.1 billion yuan and 2.7 billion yuan, and the non-net profit loss was 4.6 billion yuan and 5 billion yuan.
In 2020, Cialis lost 172.9 billion yuan, a loss of 18 in 20212.4 billion yuan, a loss of 38 in 20223.2 billion yuan, which has been losing money for 3 consecutive years, is expected to lose at least 2.1 billion yuan in 2023, and at most 2.7 billion yuan. This means that in the past four years, the highest loss of Cialis has reached 10 billion.
According to the pre-loss announcement, the R&D investment in the core technology and products of high-end intelligent electric vehicles is high, resulting in an increase in R&D expenses and labor costs, which affects the current performance. Not only that, in order to increase sales in the fourth quarter, Cialis increased market efforts in the first half of the year, and the high cost of raw materials in the first half of the year affected the current performance.
In the third quarter of last year, Cialis bluntly pinned its hopes on the new M7, saying that the new M7 series models of Cialis Automobile's first product were released and delivered in mid-to-late September, and with the gradual delivery of the company's products, the company's operating income is expected to increase significantly.
This time, in the annual performance pre-loss announcement, Cialis once again pinned its expectations on the hot sales of the Wenjie series, saying that "in the fourth quarter, the M7 volume and M9 were released, and the company's profitability is expected to be further enhanced." ”
Judging from the sales volume at the beginning of this year, M7 and M9 have indeed become popular models, but whether the crown sales position can be stabilized remains to be further verified by the market. One of the factors restricting sales is the production capacity problem, which was previously delayed due to the production capacity problems of the Zhijie S7 cooperated by Huawei and Chery.
With the large increase in orders from Wenjie, Cialis is also facing the problem of production capacity. However, on February 5 this year, the completion and commissioning of the Cialis super factory and the delivery of the first batch of M9 owners were held, the annual production capacity of the plant is planned to reach 700,000 vehicles, and the production capacity is expected to be further released after the factory is put into operation, which is expected to support the monthly production capacity to exceed 50,000 vehicles, providing a solid guarantee for the subsequent product delivery.
According to the latest research report of Founder**, with the continuous increase in the proportion of sales in the Wenjie brand after the ramp-up of the production capacity of the M9 in the world, the volume and price of Cialis will rise upward, and it is expected to turn losses into profits in the profit contribution of models as soon as June 2024, and the profit cycle may start in the third quarter of 2024.
It is worth mentioning that Li Auto recently announced its financial report, and in 2023, Li Auto will achieve revenue of 1238500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1735%, and the total delivery volume for the year reached 3760,000 units, with a net profit of 118100 million yuan, compared with a net loss of 20 million in 2022300 million yuan to turn losses into profits. With the profit in 2023 alone, Li Auto has made up for the accumulated losses of the previous five years in one go.
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