Let's talk about this recent problem that is both distressing and headache - the sharp decline in the newborn population in our country. You may have also heard that Qiao Jie, director of Peking University Health Science Center, put a big bomb on a forum: in the past five years, the number of newborns has been cut in half, reducing by nearly 40%, and by 2022, the number of births will be only 9.56 million. What's even more frightening is that this number may continue to fall in 2023, falling between 7 million and 8 million. This is not only a matter for every family, but also an unprecedented challenge for the education industry.
You may wonder if there are fewer students, isn't it better for teachers to be more relaxed, classes to be smaller, and salaries to stay the same? Hey, that sounds like a good idea, but the reality can be much harsher. As the number of students decreases, schools may begin to lay off staff, and the remaining teachers will have to take on more work and may not be paid a penny. For example, teachers may have to provide more after-school tutoring to reduce the burden on parents. It may also be necessary to teach a variety of interest classes, from painting to **, and even physical education, to ensure that students are well-rounded; Not to mention, schools may also extend the hours of care for students so that parents can work with peace of mind. Does this sound a bit like "Superman Almighty"? But it's all possible, and there's already a place to start piloting.
So, what happens to kindergartens and schools? In the past, education has been seen as a stable and profitable industry. But now, things seem to have changed dramatically. Some well-known early education centers, such as Kebeile, Qiaohu, and Gymboree, have all closed their doors. Although the double reduction policy has a certain impact, the decline in the newborn population is the fundamental reason. In my city, several kindergartens have already announced their closures this year due to financial constraints. Not only private schools, but also public kindergartens are beginning to feel the pressure of admissions. For example, in big cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, there are obvious vacancies in schools. This is particularly true in Shenzhen, where 120 kindergartens in Nanshan District alone are facing this dilemma. If this continues, will primary and secondary schools also be affected?
Let's talk about the phenomenon of "involution" in education. This word is estimated to be familiar to parents, in order to let their children go to a good school, all methods are used, the most typical is "school district room". Because a certain school is good, the number of houses in the neighborhood can be doubled. But with the newborn population dwindling, this frenzied competition may ease somewhat. The pressure on school admissions is reduced, and parents don't need to spend a lot of money on school district housing in order to get their children into a good school. With the passage of time, the school district may return to rationality and no longer be influenced by educational resources. At the same time, educational resources may be more evenly distributed and no longer concentrated in certain specific school districts or schools. This is undoubtedly good news for most students. Excessive learning pressure may also be reduced, so that children can grow up healthier.
See, the impact of this population decline on the education industry is all-encompassing. Although there are many challenges, they are not without opportunities. For teachers, this may mean that they need to learn more skills to become more well-rounded educators. Educational resources may become more equitable and accessible for parents and students. While this change has brought uncertainty, it has also provided an opportunity to rethink and adjust the education model. In this process, each of us is a participant and a witness. We need to be more open and flexible in the face of these upcoming changes. After all, the essence of education is to develop future citizens, and this should not change no matter how the environment changes.