On January 17, 2024, the Chinese Bureau of Statistics released a news that the number of newborns born in China's permanent population last year was only 9.02 million this year.
Last year, the news of China's birth population that has been circulating on the Internet has been confirmed to be true, but the number is slightly different from what we knew last year, and the previous version circulated on the Internet was 7.88 million, and the actual number has increased compared to him.
It doesn't matter how much they are different, what matters is the news revealed from behind them, China's birth population has really begun to have a negative growth trend, and our population has begun to contract births, and what changes will this bring?
The birth rate of newborns will seriously affect the development of several industries are maternal and child product stores, confinement services industry, and education industry. Today we will take a look at the changes in the education sector due to the decrease in the number of births.
First and foremost, the most important change is that there may be a mass closure of schools in the future.
The number of schools in our country may become a historical peak node, and the current education cause has not been seriously affected by the future newborns, and their group of children have really begun to exert their strength, and the rectification of the education industry will start at least three years later.
Three years later, when this group of newborns grows up, the first thing to flow into is the kindergarten. Now the market is flooded with a large number of private kindergartens, they are under the banner of high-end education, charging tens of thousands of tuition fees, kindergarten is a very promising industry for them.
However, the precipitous decline of students means that from a seller's market to a buyer's market, the high-end kindergartens that were once hard to find are due to a large decrease in the enrollment population, and the problem is that there are not enough students.
And the more severe place occurs in the mid-end kindergarten, because their substitution is too strong, whether it is service or education, others can imitate and learn from many places, it is difficult to form their own unique advantages in running a school.
There are not enough students, and no matter how hard they try to grab students, they will face the problem of reduced income and increased competition. Once the children become a minority, the state will strengthen its jurisdiction over these non-compliant or informal kindergartens.
The future will be a very severe market, there will be a lot of entrepreneurs to see that the industry in the future unprofitable choice to withdraw, a large number of kindergartens will be closed, seizure.
The opposite of kindergarten is the primary, middle and high school schools in China. These schools also face the problem of not having enough students. Private kindergartens may end up in bankruptcy, but public kindergartens are bound to merge in large numbers.
After a large number of mergers, it is beneficial to concentrate educational resources, and students will have easier access to excellent teaching resources, but this does not mean that students will face less academic pressure in the future.
As we saw in this article, with a large number of schools closing, fewer schools to go on to higher education in the future, and a narrower range of options for students, some regions may face even more terrible competition for education.
Many students in major education provinces are likely to have no chance to stay in their local schools and are forced to compete for educational resources in other provinces, and good schools will not lower their enrollment standards because of the small number of students.
For example, Tsinghua University and Peking University have fewer students, which makes it more convenient for them to teach them according to their aptitude and implement personalized education. So the pressure on future students will only be greater than that of current students.
When it comes to universities, we can't ignore the second change in the education industry - the exit of capital.
The essence of capital is profit-seeking, and if the education industry is not profitable, no one will continue to invest in the education industry in the future. This impact is twofold, on the one hand, it refers to those off-campus training institutions.
The decline in the number of students is a huge blow to them, because they rely on students to eat, and the fierce competition now will only make many people who cannot afford to invest choose to give up working in this industry.
At this time, we will experience a short bonus period, that is, in order to survive, these training institutions will definitely adopt a price reduction method to attract students and parents.
This is the short-lived wool that we can get, once a large number of training institutions leave the market, people can only choose among a few institutions, and parents will become more passive, because the space for choice is reduced again.
However, it is necessary not to report it, because the number of students is small, and the impact of subtle differences is even greater.
When it comes to universities, private universities are unable to recover their costs from students, and a large number of private universities are closed, and the range of choices for students who could have barely gone to university has become smaller again, and they are bound to divert to junior college and study abroad.
The third shift in the education industry is for teachers.
After the merger of schools in many small counties, a large number of teachers with mediocre ability will be unemployed, and the examination career preparation will only be more papers, and teachers are likely to no longer be iron rice bowls, or a large number of teachers will not have access to iron rice bowls.
The most important thing is that after this group of teachers enters the market, it is also difficult to find the right job, because off-campus training institutions are also laying off people, and the supply of teachers is oversupply, and this group of teachers can only go to jobs that have nothing to do with education, and how to re-employ has become a major problem for them.