Author丨Chen Zhi.
Editor丨Zeng Fang.
When the eyes of the global capital market are aimed at the new highs of Bitcoin and Europe and the United States, ** quietly broke through the integer mark of $2,100 ounces, and once again approached the all-time high of $2,152 ounces.
As of 11 o'clock on March 5, the main contract trading of COMEX*** was reported at 21197 dollarsoz, which rose to near $2130 an ounce overnight.
At the same time, the London spot *** also touched 2111$8 an ounce is not far from the all-time high of $2,140 an ounce set in December last year.
At present, financial markets are widely expecting that ** will soon break through the all-time highs. A Wall Street hedge manager told reporters. The reason for this is that asset management institutions that mainly hedge** continue to increase their net long positions in COMEX*** options.
A new abacus for hedging**
According to the latest data released by the U.S. Commodity Exchange Commission (CFTC), the net long position of COMEX*** options held by asset managers dominated by hedged** continued to increase by 369,400 ounces in the week ended Feb. 27 compared with the previous week.
However, in the eyes of industry insiders, the current hedging of long positions continues to increase, which is unusual. After all, since the beginning of this year, the market has repeatedly postponed the time of the Fed's first interest rate cut this year, and the dollar index has been around 104, which is not conducive to *** higher.
In addition, the resilience of the U.S. economy led to a rebound in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.Above 2%, superimposed on U.S. inflation tends to fall, making the real interest rate of the U.S. dollar correspondingly higher, which is not conducive to *** A head of asset allocation of an asset management institution in the Asia-Pacific region told reporters.
The reporter learned that a key factor that led asset management institutions such as hedging to ignore the above unfavorable factors and still increase their holdings against the trend and bet on new highs is that more and more investment institutions find that their allocation to ** is insufficient.
The head of the asset allocation department of the above-mentioned Asia-Pacific asset management institutions revealed that they found in the process of peer exchanges that a large number of investment institutions have invested most of their funds in U.S. stocks due to the impact of record highs in U.S. stocks, resulting in the allocation ratio of the highest is generally less than 5%. The proportion of investment reaches more than 10%.
Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD, said he thinks it could go higher. The reason is that some cautious macro traders have found that they have not invested enough in ** before, especially when the market is widely expected that the Fed may cut interest rates in June, and they need to increase their allocation to a reasonable level as soon as possible before the Fed cuts interest rates.
TD** thinks,Once the Fed starts cutting interest rates, it will rise to $2,300 an ounce
The aforementioned U.S. hedge manager told reporters that the financial market is setting off a new policy arbitrage investment behavior - that is, more and more Wall Street investment institutions are rushing to increase their long positions before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. After all, according to market history**, whenever the Fed enters a benchmark interest rate reduction cycle, it has always performed well in a low interest rate environment.
The latest trading data in the interest rate swap market shows that about 3 in 5 investors are currently betting that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in June, which means that these investors are likely to be important participants in the policy arbitrage trades described above.
Investment institutions are eager to "hedge" the risk of market uncertainty
In the view of many industry insiders, another important reason for investment institutions such as hedging to increase their positions in long positions or ETF assets is the United States. Because of the uncertainty of the United States, the volatility of U.S. stocks often increases, and in this case, investment institutions can reduce the volatility of the net value of their portfolios by increasing their positions in ETFs and other assets.
The reporter learned that recently, the world's largest ** ETF - SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ** holdings resumed capital inflow again, indicating that more and more investment institutions are using the ** ETF with high liquidity as an important tool to hedge the risk of market volatility caused by the United States**.
Adrian Ash, research director at Bullion Vault, said that as the risk of a direct conflict between Russia and NATO countries increases, the buying of ** by foreign exchange reserve managers in many countries will also remain strong. To some extent, the demand for gold from global central banks may offset the impact of some profit-taking orders, allowing gold prices to continue their rally.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that despite headwinds such as a stronger dollar, the heads of investment institutions such as hedges are rushing to re-establish bullish bets on **.
In his opinion, it may take several days to re-establish a long position on comex*** options for hedging**. If this move sustains gold prices**, it may attract more follow-the-trend buying entries, driving gold prices to new highs at a faster pace.
According to the latest data released by the World ** AssociationCentral bank purchase demand continued to grow in the fourth quarter of last year, as the diversification of foreign exchange reserve asset allocation and international geopolitical concerns prompted central banks to increase their allocation to safe assets such as **
A number of industry insiders pointed out that affected by factors such as the escalation of international geopolitical risks and the increased volatility of the global financial market, the global central bank's purchase demand for ** will remain at a high level this year, or play a more obvious role in supporting the bottom, which invisibly boosts investment institutions such as hedging to buy more confidently, betting on *** to hit a new high during the year.
Gold Newsletter analysis found that the strong allocation demand from Asian countries such as China and India, coupled with the continuous purchase of gold by central banks, made *** withstand the previous short-term selling pressure. It should be noted that the pace of economic growth in advanced economies has slowed down significantly, and the Federal Reserve has entered a monetary policy easing cycle, and the potential allocation demand of Western countries will also increase accordingly.
sfc
Editor: Jiang Peipei, Intern: Liao Jiayi.
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