Recently, expert Meng Xiaosu said at the second Changbai Mountain Forum that if the circulation of rural land and homestead land is liberalized, China's economy can be driven into a growth rate of more than 8% for more than 20 years. This is a bold idea.
However, this conclusion is a bit hasty, and the liberalization of rural homesteads and land circulation will certainly have a certain role in promoting the economy, but it is obviously the subjective assumption of experts to raise the economic growth rate to 8% and maintain it for more than 20 years, and there is no research to support. Moreover, there are actually many problems in liberalizing rural homesteads and land circulation.
First, there is the issue of food security, China's arable land area is the third in the world, and the population is the second in the world. The per capita arable land area is far below the global average, and the problem of food security is very serious. That's why a red line of 18 acres of cultivated land was drawn. Frankly, it will definitely affect the economy in many places.
If the economy is fully liberalized, as the experts envision, then the economy may be beneficial, but how can food security be guaranteed? The added value of agriculture is too low, and the land circulation is still used for agriculture, so it will not be improved much, and it will be used for industry, then the arable land will be gone, and food security will suffer great damage.
Second, the circulation of rural homesteads can revitalize a certain amount of funds, and now there are many people in the rural areas who have actually left the countryside and do not live in the countryside at all, and their houses have been empty for more than ten years or even decades. And some urban residents want to experience the rural life, or even simply want to live in a little area, after all, hundreds of thousands of dollars can build a small villa in the countryside, such people can achieve capital circulation.
But there is a question, that is, how much can rural homesteads and houses be sold for? And this is determined by the supporting facilities and infrastructure in rural areas, most of the rural natural gas and sewage treatment facilities are not available, which causes a lot of unchanged life.
Not to mention the convenience and richness of other food and clothing, so subject to these conditions, the ** of most rural homesteads is not high. Solving these problems requires significant investment. This investment is large, the cycle is long, the result is still difficult, and the risk is quite large.
Third, the rate of self-owned houses in China is very high, and there is a big reason for the self-built houses in rural areas.
Many people may not have a house in the city, but they have a house and land in the countryside, which is equivalent to having a minimum guarantee of life. Even if you can't live in the city, you can go back to the countryside and not end up on the streets.
If the rural homestead and land circulation are completely liberalized, then there will definitely be people who cannot afford to buy housing after selling the homestead and land, and then these people may become people like the homeless people in the United States and become a social problem.
On the whole, on the basis of doing a good job in various guarantees, it may be a more feasible plan to liberalize the homestead land and land circulation step by step. As for raising the economic growth rate to 8% for 20 years, it is obviously impossible, and it is just a pie drawn by experts.