Chip Wars: The Rise of the Continent and the Anxiety of the United States.
Introduction: Over the years, the United States has tried its best to contain the mainland's rise in the high-tech field. From the Wassenaar Agreement to unite multinational restrictions, to the technical obstruction of the Dutch ASML, to the all-round control after Huawei's 5G lead, the US has emerged one after another. However, in the face of the accelerating development of mature process chips in the mainland, the United States seems to have fallen into an unspeakable anxiety. This article will delve into the history of the U.S. obstruction of the development of chips in mainland China, its response to local chip production capacity, the current situation of the global chip landscape, and the possibility that the U.S. may be constrained by mature process chips.
1. The U.S. side's obstruction process.
The United States has been using a variety of means at different levels in an attempt to block the mainland's high-tech development. The earliest Wassenaar Agreement, which combined multinational restrictions, laid the groundwork for later controls. The obstruction of the shipment of EUV lithography machines by the Dutch ASML is even more eye-catching, revealing the concerns of the US side about the mainland at the technical level. Huawei's global leadership in 5G has made the US more nervous, from the Quadripartite Alliance to the Tripartite Agreement, from individual control to comprehensive control, the US seems to be losing its head start. However, recent expert observations suggest that these controls have not had the desired effect.
The US has a rich and colorful history of obstructing China's high-tech development over the years. As early as the Wassenaar Agreement, the United States united with many countries to restrict the mainland's high-tech imports in order to curb its development. Later, the United States even obstructed the shipment of EUV lithography machines by ASML in the Netherlands, in an attempt to weaken the mainland's technological foundation in the field of semiconductor manufacturing. However, this series of obstruction measures did not deal a fatal blow to the mainland's high-tech development. Especially in the context of Huawei's leading 5G technology, the comprehensive control of the US side has triggered a more severe confrontation.
2. The U.S. side's perception and response to local chip production capacity.
The U.S. side has been alarmed by the serious decline in local chip production capacity. Local chip production capacity, which once accounted for 37% of global production capacity, is now only 12%. Giant companies such as Apple, Qualcomm, and Nvidia are heavily dependent on foreign countries. In order to solve this dilemma, the United States invested $52 billion through the CHIPS Act to support the increase of local chip production capacity. However, the key is that the United States pays more attention to the development of advanced processes, and strives to catch up with competitors such as TSMC and Samsung by introducing large wafer factories and building 5nm and 3nm chip factories. To a certain extent, this strategy shows that the United States does not rely enough on mature processes.
The awakening of the United States to local chip production capacity came very late, and the glory moment of accounting for 37% of global production capacity has become history. Now, the United States has to invest a lot of money through the "CHIPS Act" and other means, hoping to make up for the serious shortage of local chip production capacity. However, rather than focusing on increasing overall production capacity, the United States is more concerned about catching up with advanced processes. The introduction of large wafer factories and the construction of 5nm and 3nm chip factories show that the United States is more willing to focus on the development of advanced technologies, and mature processes do not seem to have attracted enough attention.
3. The current situation of the global chip landscape.
The global chip landscape shows that advanced process chips account for less than 30%, while mature process chips account for more than 70%. Although the United States focuses on the development of advanced manufacturing processes, it actually occupies a relatively small market share. With the growth of global chip demand, the proportion of mature process chips is expected to continue to expand. This trend is in direct contrast to the direction of the US direction, raising questions about the US strategy.
The current state of the global chip landscape highlights a clear trend: mature process chips dominate the global market. However, the U.S. development strategy does not seem to fully recognize this. Compared with more than 70% of the world's mature process chip demand, the United States is more inclined to develop advanced processes. As a result, the competitive position of the United States in the global chip market has been gradually eroded, and the gap in the field of mature processes may become an important factor restricting its future development.
Fourth, the accelerated expansion of chip production capacity in the mainland.
While the United States is focusing on the development of advanced processes, the mainland has quickly adjusted its thinking to accelerate the development of mature process chips. SMIC is a typical example, investing 170 billion yuan in the past two years to build four mature process chip factories. In addition, statistics on global wafer production capacity show that there are 44 wafer factories in mainland China, and 22 are under construction, accounting for 43% of the world's total. It is estimated that by 2024, the monthly wafer production capacity of the mainland will reach 8.6 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 13%, accounting for 287%, ranking first in the world. This is not only a development trend, but also a leading position in the global expansion of mature process chips.
Continental's accelerated expansion of chip production capacity is not only reflected in the growth of scale, but also in technological breakthroughs. SMIC's investment in the construction of four mature process chip fabs marks the mainland's ambition in the field of mature processes. The statistics of global wafer production capacity prove the rapid rise of mainland China in the field of chips. In the future, Continental is expected to completely get rid of its dependence on mature process chips and become the mainstay of the global chip industry through the accelerated expansion of these production capacities.
Fifth, it is difficult for the US to control advanced manufacturing processes effectively.
In the process of obstructing the development of chips in mainland China, the United States mainly focused on the control of advanced processes, while the equipment of mature processes has not been greatly affected. The mainland has accelerated the development of mature process equipment through the localization of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, such as ASML of the Netherlands and Tokyo Electron of Japan, and other equipment manufacturers have shipped to the mainland, making it impossible for the United States to effectively prevent the development of chips in the mainland. In the face of the escalating control of the US side, it has accelerated the industrial layout of the mainland, making the US side feel helpless.
The U.S. obstruction of the mainland's chip development has been repeatedly frustrated technically. It mainly focuses on the control of advanced manufacturing processes, trying to hinder the development of the mainland's chip industry through technological blockade. However, by localizing semiconductor manufacturing equipment, Continental has gradually realized its independent control of mature process equipment. The acceleration of shipments to the mainland by equipment manufacturers such as ASML in the Netherlands and Tokyo Electron in Japan has made it even more difficult for the United States to control them. While the United States is trying to prevent the rise of mainland chips through technical means, the mainland is accelerating the expansion of mature process chip production capacity around the world, gradually forming a technological confrontation situation.
6. The U.S. may be subject to mature process chips in reverse.
Although the U.S. has a certain advantage in advanced process chips, its dependence on mature process chips may lead to a reverse crisis in the future. The dominance of mature process chips in the mainland market may give the US an advantage in advanced processes, but it is still difficult to get rid of its dependence on mature process chips. This may be a strategic imbalance for the United States, because in the global chip market, mature processes occupy an absolute dominant position. If the mainland emerges one day, the United States may fall into a passive situation due to its over-reliance on mature process chips.
The U.S. may be constrained by the mainland market due to its over-reliance on mature process chips. Although the United States has a competitive advantage in the field of advanced process chips, its gradual loss of mature process chip market may put it in a disadvantageous position in the global chip industry. Mature processes account for more than 70% of the global chip market, and the mainland is accelerating the expansion of mature process chip production capacity, which is gradually forming a challenge to the United States. If the United States does have an advantage in the field of advanced processes in the future, but still relies on mature process chips in the mainland market, it may be stuck in the neck.
Conclusion: On the stage of the chip war, the rise of the mainland and the anxiety of the United States constitute a fierce competition. The U.S. has gained some advantages in the development of advanced processes, but ignoring mature processes may become a double-edged sword. By accelerating the development of mature process chips, Continental is gradually leading the world. In the future, who will dominate the chip market and who will become the leader of technology, the outcome of this war is still uncertain. In these turbulent times, the battle for the pinnacle of high technology will determine the future landscape.
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