On the second anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a new round of disputes has erupted within NATO over aid to Ukraine. France** Macron actively asserts, not only promising to supply medium and long-range missiles, but also hinting at the possibility of sending troops to contain Russia.
However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz responded quickly, making it clear that NATO has not and does not intend to send troops to Ukraine, and that Germany will not ** "Taurus" long-range missiles.
This confrontation between aid positions has escalated from a private dispute to an open contradiction.
At a time when France and Germany are in a-for-tat confrontation over the issue of military aid to Ukraine in the new year, the Kremlin has foreshadowed an important moment in advance - Russia** Putin will deliver the high-profile 2024 State of the Union address at noon Moscow time this Thursday.
The focus of this speech is clearly closely linked to the ongoing special military operation. Last year, Putin opened with a special operation in which he laid out the rationale for his actions against Ukraine.
Now, on the second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it can be expected that Putin's State of the Union address will provide a detailed review of the achievements of the past year's operations, as well as a blueprint for a special military operation in the years to come.
In addition, according to Russian media, Putin will also outline Russia's strategic development vision for the next six years in his speech.
At the start of March, the EU's consensus contrasted sharply with Putin's ambitions, revealing the stark disparate circumstances of the two countries in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine, which has relied on foreign aid for two years of hard fighting, is so exhausted that Zelensky has to face the fact that it is difficult to hide losses.
With the fall of Avdiyivka, the Ukrainian defense line seems to have run out of ground. External aid is gradually cooling, although France ** Macron said that he would intervene, but the actual amount of aid - France 6The 400 million euros in aid is nothing compared to Germany's investment.
Germany is deeply disappointed, and Scholz has made it clear that he refuses to increase troops in Ukraine, which is not only a redefinition of aid, but also a question of the hope of victory: "Doesn't it seem ironic that we provide funds, but do not guarantee victory?" ”
Under the pressure of Western sanctions, Russia seems to be slightly weak in the first war, like a temporarily assembled team. However, isolated Russia has shown resilience and has succeeded in achieving economic and military strength through innovative wartime tactics and popular mobilization**.
In the two years of confrontation, Russia's combat effectiveness has gradually strengthened, and now it has a solid front, and the offensive is advancing step by step from Kupyansk to Avdiyivka. A decisive offensive is expected on the northern and eastern fronts in the spring and summer of this year.
It is worth noting that in November, the turning point of the United States, Russia may implement a potential new campaign against Ukraine according to the election dynamics.
Within the European Union, there is a dispute over the position of supporting Ukraine. While France and Germany have openly voiced their opposition, in essence, the decisions of EU and NATO members are not controlled by a single country.
Scholz's refusal to send troops is in accordance with the provisions of the German Constitution, according to the Parliamentary Senate Act, the dispatch of German troops abroad must be strictly reviewed and supervised by the Bundestag, including the scale and manner of the operation, and the parliament has the right to suspend or withdraw troops at any time.
Therefore, the key to deciding whether to send troops, the scale and the method of sending troops is not Scholz's statement, but depends on the final decision of the German Bundestag.
Regarding NATO's relationship with the conflict in Ukraine, we cannot ignore the fact that, although NATO is not directly involved, its influence is already quietly emerging. The capture of local mercenaries on the battlefield in Ukraine, as well as NATO's ** equipment to support the Ukrainian army, all show that NATO is actually involved.
Scholz's remarks represent Germany's position, but when the collective defense mechanism is activated, whether or not to send troops will be beyond the decision of individual countries. The attitude of NATO members such as the United States is more symbolic, and France's proposal to "send troops" has actually received little response, because even the seemingly weak Russian army is by no means easy for NATO, and either side may face setbacks if it intervenes.