On Monday (March 4), the market led the rise in the GEM index throughout the day, with a turnover of 1,077.1 billion yuan in the two cities, an increase of 21.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day. As of **, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 041%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 004%, the GEM index rose 059%。In terms of sectors, liquid-cooled servers, CROs, computing power leasing and other sectors were among the top gainers, while integrated die-casting, hydrogen energy, duty-free and other sectors were among the top decliners.
Institutions: Focus on new quality productivity
On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index once tested 3,000 points of first-line support, and here it was also the 5th**, and then it was supported by buying funds, indicating that the willingness to go long is still relatively good, and the performance of large tickets is stronger than that of small tickets in terms of structure.
Everbright** released a daily strategy, saying that the recent accumulation of profits in the market is large, and the willingness of funds to go long has declined, resulting in a slowdown in the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index; However, the good news at the industry level continues, the funds turn to the theme of speculation, and the market is mainly structural. The index may be around 3,000 points around the game repeatedly; Next, it may be mainly structural**, and the hot spot rotation is expected to continue to be staged. Huatai** research report said that last week, the market was reduced from large to large, and the index ran below the chip-intensive range. In February, the over-fall ** resonated with the "spring mania", the strength exceeded market expectations, the current general rise ** or basically in place, and the "spring mania" is still being interpreted. In terms of this year's highlights, we can pay attention to how the new quality productivity continues to be "new", or focus on scientific and technological innovation, industrial power, and green development. In terms of configuration, we continue to recommend the CSI 300 portfolio, with a medium-term perspective, and excavate in combination with the boom in the sinking of similar dividends and deep value-based industries.
400 billion giants led the AI hardware end
On Monday, the AI concept continued to be strong last week, the hardware side led the rise, the liquid-cooled server concept stocks collectively rose, and the high-tech development came out of 12 days and 8 boards to hit a record high. Computing power concept stocks are strong, high-tech development, Hubei Radio and Television daily limit; CPO concept stocks soared intraday, Accelink Technology 3 boards, Zhongji InnoLight and Tianfu Communications all hit record highs. The giant industrial Fortune Federation, with a total market value of more than 400 billion yuan, rarely rose on Monday, and the industrial Fortune Federation rose only close to 8% at 14:31 at the end of the session, but then it was lightning closed in a few minutes, with more than 110,000 orders and a turnover of more than 5.7 billion yuan. As of September 30, 2023, the latest number of shareholders of FII is 20230,000 households. It is worth noting that this wave of industrial Fortune Federation bottomed out before **, but Monday was the first time that the stock has closed the daily limit since January 18 this year, with a cumulative increase of more than 73%.
Regarding the industrial Fulian's daily limit, some netizens said, "I was stunned, I didn't expect that I could eat a daily limit when it rose to a high level." ”
On the news side, Dell Technologies rose more than 31% on Friday to hit a record high since the 2019 U.S. IPO, Dell Technologies released a stronger-than-expected earnings report, indicating that the company's server equipment used to process artificial intelligence work is in strong demand. In addition, NVIDIA's GTC 2024 conference will continue to be the focus of market attention, and its progress in the field of computing power is still the biggest attraction. Previously, the market expected that NVIDIA's **B100 computing power chip would fully use liquid cooling technology to dissipate heat, which shows the geometric increase in computing power energy consumption in the AI era, and the development of the corresponding heat dissipation system may become a major bottleneck. The Huachuang ** electronics team said that under the wave of AI, the server as a computing infrastructure ushered in a new round of development, and the shipment of cloud computing servers of the Industrial Fortune Union ranked first in the world, and the cooperation with head customers enjoyed the development dividend of the industry; Netcom and industrial Internet businesses are also expected to benefit from the new digital infrastructure and enter a new stage of development. Some market participants said that from the perspective of the recent AI hardware speculation path, it is obviously different from the wave of "speculation + software" at the end of October last year, this wave of funds from the two main lines of computing power and CPO, and gradually spread to liquid cooling, servers, chips, etc., showing a mode of expansion and hype, and the main target of funds is also a large market capitalization military type, so under the continuous positive feedback of funds, the continuity is expected to be relatively good.
Advanced packaging also benefits
The diffusion of AI hardware has first driven the concept of advanced packaging, and on Monday, the concept leader Tongfu Microelectronics has a daily limit, with 60,000 orders and a turnover of 2.5 billion yuan.
On the news side, the memory industry has gone through the cold winter valley, and as the demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DDR5 has skyrocketed due to generative AI, the collective production reduction of memory manufacturers will come to an end.
The research report of Galaxy ** on February 22 pointed out that PCs took the lead in recovery, and memory chips stopped falling and rebounded, both of which marked the imminent recovery of the semiconductor industry. The value of packaging and testing accounts for about 30% of the semiconductor industry chain, and the penetration rate of advanced packaging continues to increase driven by the strong demand for computing power. It is estimated that the global advanced packaging market will grow from $35 billion to $48.2 billion from 2021 to 2026, and the CAGR will exceed the compound annual growth rate of the industry (4.).34%)61%, and the market share will also exceed 50% for the first time in 2025, reaching 5037%。Galaxy** said that AMD has successively released a number of chips such as MI 300, Ryzen 8040 series, and Ryzen 800G series, and has been competing head-to-head with NVIDIA and Intel in the fields of data centers and AI PCs, and AMD's performance will fully benefit from the development of the AI industry. In 2016, Tongfu Microelectronics acquired 85% of the shares of AMD Suzhou and Penang packaging and testing plants, and started the "cooperation + joint venture" model with AMD, and the company is currently an important packaging and testing foundry of AMD, accounting for more than 80% of its total orders, and will share AI dividends with AMD.
The "three barrels of oil" performed strongly
The "three barrels of oil" led the big ticket, and on Monday, it rose again, and CNOOC soared by more than 7%, with the highest intraday stock price reaching 2699 yuan, a record high, Sinopec and PetroChina followed up strongly.
On the news side, at the end of last week, a number of oil-producing countries announced plans to extend production cuts. On March 3, local time, the Saudi Ministry of Energy said that the voluntary production reduction of 1 million barrels per day implemented by Saudi Arabia since July 2023 will be extended until the end of June this year, and at the same time, Russia also said that Russian oil production and exports will be reduced in the second quarter.
Zheshang said that the global petrochemical industry capital expenditure is insufficient and "OPEC+" is still willing to reduce production and raise prices, and it is expected that the future supply side growth will be limited, even if the demand is lowered, the producing countries still have the ability to maintain the supply and demand in a tight balance, benefiting from the oil price to remain in a high level range, and the upstream ** leader is expected to have stable profitability. (Article**: Oriental Wealth Research Center).