With the release of the latest CRIC data, the property market sales data has once again attracted attention. According to the data, the sales amount of TOP100 real estate companies fell by as much as 60% year-on-year, which makes people sigh when the property market will be able to get out of the trough. In this article, we will analyze the current situation and future trend of the current property market, the reasons behind the cold market, and make corresponding recommendations.
First, the sales data is bleak, and the property market is a foregone conclusion
CRIC data shows that the sales amount of TOP100 real estate companies fell by as much as 60% year-on-year, compared with 342%, a 25-year-wide decline8 percentage points. This data has undoubtedly poured cold water on the property market. The year-on-year decline in cumulative performance also expanded by nearly 15 percentage points from January to 488%, indicating that the overall sales situation of the property market is severe.
Among the top 100 real estate companies, there are only 12 real estate companies with cumulative sales of more than 10 billion yuan in the first two months, a decrease of 8 from the same period last year. The change in this figure intuitively reflects the increase in sales pressure on real estate companies. At the same time, the sales threshold of each echelon of the top 100 real estate companies has been further reduced compared with the same period last year, and the threshold value has fallen to the lowest level in recent years. Among them, the threshold of the sales amount of the top 10 real estate enterprises decreased by 52% year-on-year to 11.6 billion yuan, and the threshold of the top 30 and top 50 real estate enterprises was also reduced by 48 percent year-on-year1% and 492%。These data show that while real estate companies are facing sales pressure, they are also actively seeking transformation and upgrading.
Second, the market transaction is sluggish, and buyers have a strong wait-and-see mood
In addition to the dismal sales figures, the market transactions are also showing a sluggish trend. In February, the transaction volume of the key 30 cities fell by more than 7% year-on-year, and the month-on-month trend also showed a downward trend. Compared with the same period of the calendar year since 2019, it is only slightly better than the early stage of the epidemic in February 2020. Even compared with January 2023, the Spring Festival month, the decline has reached 55%.
The total transaction volume in first-tier cities was only 680,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 66% and 56% respectively. Among them, the market heat in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen has dropped sharply, with a year-on-year decline of more than 6%. Taking Beijing as an example, the average weekly number of visits to the key monitoring project site is about 80 groups, which is lower than the level of 100-120 groups on weekdays. This shows that buyers are in a wait-and-see mood and the market is sluggish.
The total transaction volume in second- and third-tier cities was 4.24 million square meters, down 43% month-on-month and 72% year-on-year. In terms of absolute volume, even Chengdu, which ranks first in terms of transaction volume, has not been able to exceed 1 million square meters, with a monthly transaction scale of only 610,000 square meters. These data show that the overall downturn in property market transactions, insufficient market demand, and weak purchasing power.
Third, policy optimization is difficult to change the market decline, when will the property market recover?
Despite the continuous optimization and release of favorable policies at the local policy level, and the relaxation of the "four restrictions" in first-tier and some strong second-tier core cities, the market reaction is not obvious. This reflects that the current predicament faced by the property market cannot be solved by policy regulation alone. In the case of insufficient market demand and weak purchasing power, it is difficult for policy optimization to quickly change the market decline.
However, this does not mean that policy optimization is meaningless. On the contrary, these policies have laid the foundation for the future recovery of the property market. With the continuous optimization of policies and the gradual adjustment of the market, the property market is expected to gradually stabilize in the future. At the same time, for home buyers, it is also necessary to maintain a rational and cautious attitude, and make reasonable home purchase decisions according to their own needs and economic strength.
Fourth, real estate companies actively respond to market changes and seek transformation and upgrading
In the face of sales pressure and market changes, real estate companies are also actively seeking transformation and upgrading. On the one hand, real estate companies respond to market changes by optimizing sales strategies, improving product quality and service levels; On the other hand, real estate companies are also exploring new market opportunities and development directions, such as the development of smart homes, green buildings and other fields.
Taking a well-known real estate company as an example, in the face of market pressure, they not only optimized their sales strategy and product design, but also actively explored the field of smart home and launched a series of smart home products. These measures not only improve the added value and competitiveness of products, but also win the favor and recognition of consumers.
To sum up, the current property market sales data is bleak and the market transaction is sluggish. However, with the continuous optimization of policies and the gradual adjustment of the market, we have reason to believe that the property market will gradually stabilize. At the same time, for real estate companies, they also need to actively respond to market changes and seek transformation and upgrading; For home buyers, it is necessary to maintain a rational and cautious attitude, and make reasonable home purchase decisions based on their own needs and financial strength.
property market